Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Wilmington, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
202 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After another hot day today, showers and thunderstorms will
increase ahead of cold front this afternoon into tonight and
will linger into Saturday as weak low pressure remains over the
area. High pressure will begin to build in from the northwest
behind another cold front early Monday, leaving drier weather
with temperatures closer to normal into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Early Friday afternoon: Updated forecast recently mainly to
account for increased severe weather threat. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for our NC counties until 11 PM EDT.

Deep layer WSW flow will persist across the area through the
day ahead of a mid-level trough currently located over the mid-
Mississippi River valley. This shortwave trough will drop
southeast and cross the Carolinas today, with moisture
increasing ahead of the associated surface front. Precipitable
water values will surge to 1.7-1.8" ahead of the front, with
mixed-layer CAPE reaching 1500 J/kg during max heating as temps
reach the lower and mid 90s away from the beaches. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the CWA this
afternoon, initially along the sea breeze but eventually
spreading to other areas as height falls/mid level cooling
advance into the region ahead of the aforementioned shortwave
trough. Some of these storms may produce large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts before they weaken and move off the coast
during the evening. An isolated tornado is also possible, mainly
near and north of Wilmington.

Previous discussion...

Cooler and drier air will move in for Saturday, with consensus
MOS guidance indicating highs ranging generally 85-90. Models
are suggesting the front will waver along the coast through
Saturday, and with some trailing shortwave energy across NC
Saturday, there will be some potential for shower/tstm
development across the Cape Fear region Saturday afternoon.
Chances at this point will be kept around 20 percent, and
limited primarily to coastal SE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Friday...Weak low pressure over the Carolina coast
will keep a light and variable flow early Sunday, but winds will
come around to the SW later on Sunday as cold front approaches
from the NW. Winds will back to the west through the low levels
on Sunday which will help to kick temps back into the 90s most
places in decent downslope flow. There will not be much support
for anything more than a low end chc of convection Sun. Cold
front will drop south through Sun night with drier air spreading
in from the NW. Temps inland should drop to the mid 60s by early
Mon, remaining closer to 70 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday...High pressure will build down from the
north on Monday with a deeper drier N-NW flow. This will allow
temps to return to more normal readings with mid 80s most places
both Mon and Tues. As dewpoints drop into the 50s Mon aftn
through Tues aftn, air mass should feel much more comfortable.
This drier air mass, with pcp water values closer to a half
inch, will keep rain out of the forecast for Mon through early
Wed and allow overnight lows to drop below 60 most places early
Tues morning.

High pressure will shift off the coast on Wed allowing a warmer
and moister return flow to bring clouds and chc of
thunderstorms back in the forecast. Pcp water values will be up
near 2 inches by late Wed onward. Temps will be creeping back up
toward 90 most places.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 18Z...Ahead of an approaching cold front,
scattered thunderstorms are expected, possibly affecting any of
the terms with heavy rain and gusty winds, mainly through around
03Z inland and 06Z closer to the coast. Outside any
thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail, although southwest
winds will be gusty near 20 knots.

Extended Outlook...Slight chance MVFR each morning in low
stratus/fog. Thunderstorm chances increase latter half of next week
as Bermuda high sets up off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Early afternoon: Southwest winds enhanced by strong low- level
flow ahead of an approaching cold front and the sea breeze will
produce locally hazardous conditions for small craft through
this afternoon, mainly for nearshore waters north of Murrells
Inlet. Strong storms could also impact the waters through this
evening.

As of 300 AM Friday...Mariners should pay close attention to
the weather today, as conditions may change rapidly this
afternoon and evening due to thunderstorms.

Southwest flow will continue through the day between high pressure
offshore and an approaching cold front. Maintained Small Craft
Advisories from Murrells Inlet to Surf City through early
evening. Aside from the gusty southwest winds, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop inland this afternoon, and
move across the waters late afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe, especially north of Little
River Inlet. The front will approach the coast around midnight,
then waffle through Saturday morning. This will lead to a shift
to northwest winds for a period late tonight and early Saturday
before becoming southwest once again by late Saturday morning.

Seas will subside through Sat night in a light and variable
flow with weak low pressure nearby keeping gradient poorly
defined. Winds will become SW Sun aftn increasing up to 10 to 15
kts through Sun evening. This will push seas up a bit to 3 to 4
ft.

A cold front pushes through toward Mon morning with a shift
in winds around to the NW to N. High pressure builds down from
the north Mon through Tues with N winds shifting to a more NE
direction late Tues as high migrates eastward. Winds will then
come around to the SE to S by Wed as return flow sets up as
high pressure shifts off the coast.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-011200-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-Northern Horry-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
as well, mainly near and north of Wilmington.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-011200-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ110-011200-
Coastal Brunswick-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

NCZ106-108-011200-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

SCZ054-056-011200-
Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
this afternoon and evening. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
as well, mainly near and north of Wilmington.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

AMZ250-252-011200-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

AMZ254-011200-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

AMZ256-011200-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
133 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.
Scattered thunderstorms may produce hail and locally damaging winds
late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC
250 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ087-096-311915-
Robeson-Bladen-
250 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL BLADEN
AND EAST CENTRAL ROBESON COUNTIES...

At 250 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Robeson Community College, or over
Lumberton, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to nickel sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lumberton, Robeson Community College, Smiths, Howellsville, Barker
Ten Mile, Hestertown and Tolarsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 7912 3476 7908 3476 7879 3458 7876
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 270DEG 31KT 3466 7901

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