Beach Hazards Statement 28, NWS Wilmington, NC

475 
WHUS42 KILM 231938
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
338 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019


NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-240000-
/O.CON.KILM.BH.S.0028.000000T0000Z-190824T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
338 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...In South Carolina, Coastal Horry and Coastal 
  Georgetown. In North Carolina, Coastal Pender and Coastal New 
  Hanover.

* TIMING...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* SURF ZONE IMPACTS...Strong south to north longshore current at
  east facing beaches due to elevated south winds around 15 kts,
  especially this afternoon and evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Longshore currents can sweep swimmers and surfers into rip
currents, piers, jetties, and other hazardous areas. Often, if the
longshore current is strong enough, it will sweep swimmers off
their feet, making it difficult to return to shore.

Caution should be used when in or near the water. Check with the
lifeguards before entering the ocean for possible hazards you may
be swept into.

&&

$$

19

229 
WHUS42 KILM 232359
CFWILM

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
759 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019



NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-240100-
/O.EXP.KILM.BH.S.0028.000000T0000Z-190824T0000Z/
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
759 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

As front approaches the area and stalls tomorrow, winds will be 
much weaker and have therefore ended the hazard for strong south 
to north longshore current.

$$

19

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
357 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms will become more numerous this weekend
as a front stalls in the area. The front will linger offshore
early next week. A tropical low may track north up through the
offshore waters of the Southeast coast early next week, lifting
off to the northeast through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today overall looks similar to yesterday with mainly scattered and
fairly typical summertime shower/tstm activity this afternoon with
deep layered ridging just offshore. Our northern counties are in a
marginal risk for severe, though main forcing will be north of area
with approaching cold front so not expecting significant issues.
Rain chances gradually ramp up from NW to SE this evening and into
early Sat as front pushes into the region. Still expecting good
coverage of showers/tstms on Sat as front at least briefly gets hung
up as it interacts with sea breeze circulation. Best coverage and
highest QPF amounts in the near term expected to be 18Z Sat to 00Z
Sun when the best combo of forcing and diurnal influence are
realized.

Temps will continue a little above normal today in prefrontal
environment (mostly low to mid 90s/upper 80s beaches), before coming
down considerably Saturday as N/NE winds develop behind front (esp.
away from immediate coast) in addition to widespread
cloudiness/precip anticipated. Expect low 80s north of a Florence to
Topsail line and mid 80s to the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front should get hung up along the coast as low pressure
begins to track up from the south over the off shore waters Sat
night into Sunday. Lingering convection along and ahead of the
front should keep greatest QPF closer to the coast Sat evening.
High pressure will nose in from the north behind the front
leaving a northerly flow over much of the Carolinas by Sun. The
gradient should tighten as low tracks up from the south in the
offshore waters. There remains much uncertainty at this point in
regards to possible development of this tropical low. ECMWF,
GFS and NAM all show a sfc low tracking between 100 and 200
miles off the Southeast coast late Sun through Monday. The GFS
tends to be closest to the coast but weaker, while the ECMWF
tends to be a bit stronger but farther off shore. Track and
intensity of this low could obviously make a big difference in
the weather over the local area. For now, it looks like the best
convection and winds will remain well off shore with a more
stable air mass over inland areas where the high extends down over.
NHC has been forecasting a progressively greater chance of
formation with this low as it tracks offshore of the Southeast
coast early next week. Overall, it looks like deep layer
moisture with plenty of clouds and greater chc of pcp will exist
through Sunday, but some drier air could be drawn down from the
north on back end of the low, especially if it intensifies well
offshore to our east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low will lift off to the northeast through mid week allowing
for some drying, but looks like another front will make its way
into the Carolinas Tues into Wed. This front may stall out along
or near the coast as high pressure builds in behind it. This
may keep unsettled weather, especially along the coast through
mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions continue today. Any fog this
morning should be limited given continued SW winds. Expect
scattered cumulus clouds around 5kft with diurnal heating this
afternoon along with a chance of showers/tstms, especially
terminals away from the coast. Showers/tstms will be capable of
producing brief MVFR/IFR. Rain chances begin to increase late
tonight as cold front begins to move into region.

Extended...Unsettled weather with MVFR/IFR possible into
Saturday with frontal system in area. Front will likely move
just off the coast into Sunday but lingering moisture likely to
lead to additional restrictions. Also watching potential
tropical system moving NE just off the coast into early next
week. Confidence low on related specifics at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
One more day of fairly status-quo, moderate SW/SSW winds is on tap
as offshore high pressure dominates. Expect the typical surge in the
afternoon/early evening but should mostly be below 20kts. Seas will
be 2 to 3 ft in a mix of short period SSW windsea and climatological
8-10s SE swell. Winds will briefly trend more westerly and diminish
late tonight as front approaches, before becoming highly variable
through the day on Saturday as front slows down and we see local sea
breeze influence esp. near the coast. Either way velocities should
be at or below 10kt on Sat with seas around 2ft. Shower/tstm chances
ramp up into Sat though as front moves into region.

Light southerly winds Sat eve ahead of front dropping down from
the north will shift around to the N-NE as front moves into or
south of the waters by Sun. Forecast is highly dependent on
track and possible development of tropical low which is forecast
to move up through the offshore waters of the Southeast coast
late Sunday through Monday. The gradient should tighten enough
to produce a stiffer northerly flow and, in return, an increase
in seas. As it stands now, Seas 3 ft or less Sat night into
early Sun will increase as low makes its closest pass, possibly
within 150 miles of the Carolina coast, late Sun through
Monday. Wave models shows seas up over 4 ft Sun night into Mon,
but this forecast could change depending on low. NHC has been
forecasting a greater chc of development but much uncertainty
still exists. This low will lift off to the northeast Mon night
into Tues with an off shore flow developing. Seas will diminish
heading into mid week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MCW
MARINE...RGZ/MCW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
418 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-
059-240830-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-
Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
418 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Localized heavy rainfall is possible Saturday as a cold front stalls
near the coast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-SCZ054-056-240830-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Horry-Coastal Georgetown-
418 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Localized heavy rainfall is possible Saturday as a cold front stalls
near the coast. Potential for enhanced risk of rip currents at east-
facing area beaches Sunday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

AMZ250-252-254-256-240830-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
418 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Marine conditions may deteriorate late Sunday into early next week as
tropical low pressure moves NE through the offshore waters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.