Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
410 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Storms overnight have developed along and ahead of a 850-700mb
baroclinic zone. A southerly low level jet continues to enhance
moisture transport and WAA over Central and South Central KS.
These storms have been efficient rain makers due to PW values
range from 2 to 2.3 inches. The local PW maxima is sitting over
portions of east Central KS. GFS/NAM/RAP continue to show an
enhanced area of WAA and moisture transport extending into mid
morning and even into the afternoon. Thus, scattered storms will
be possible throughout the day today.

Given continued threat of rainfall and where the main access of
convection set up overnight, opted to add Butler, Marion, and
Chase counties to the ongoing flash flood watch. Also trended high
temps down a shave from the previous forecast given increased
cloud cover expected from lingering overnight convection.

A similar overnight convection scenario is possible again tonight
into Saturday morning. A weak mid level low will be pushing south
through the CWA while strong 925-800mb moisture pushes in from
the south. Looks like shear will be limited again to the 25-35kt
range. Models suggest the best shear upwards of 50kts will be
located just south of the CWA. Expect storms to be strong and
can't rule out a severe storm or two if the shear profile ends up
slightly better than forecast. PW values 2 to 2.3 will again
overspread the CWA thus storms that do develop will have ample
flash flood potential.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

We will turn drier Saturday evening through the extended period. A
ridge will remain in the vicinity throughout the extended leaving
the upper pattern in a northwesterly flow regime. Expect a slight
warming trend each day throughout the extended ending with
seasonable temperatures in the low 90s for the work week. Late in
the period a slight chance of showers/storms will be possible in
the overnight hours Wednesday and Thursday however confidence in
coverage remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

Combo of warm air advection and moisture transport should support
upscale development of storms across central KS overnight. This
will likely impact KSLN, KRSL and could clip KGBD, KHUT and KICT.
KCNU is more likely late tonight as storms roll southeast.
Confidence is lower how storms/precip will play out during the
day. Some increase is probable in the afternoon and evening as
front pushes through. Some chances for mvfr ceilings both this
morning and post frontal in the moist upslope low level flow.
-Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  69  82  66 /  60  60  40  10
Hutchinson      84  68  82  65 /  50  60  30  10
Newton          80  68  81  65 /  60  70  40  10
ElDorado        80  69  81  66 /  80  70  50  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  69  81  67 /  50  60  80  10
Russell         82  67  83  63 /  40  40  30  10
Great Bend      84  67  82  63 /  30  40  20  10
Salina          79  68  83  65 /  60  60  30  10
McPherson       82  67  80  64 /  50  60  30  10
Coffeyville     82  69  80  67 /  80  70  80  10
Chanute         79  69  81  66 /  80  70  60  10
Iola            79  68  81  66 /  80  60  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    80  69  80  67 /  80  70  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ052-053-
069>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...PJH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
134 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

KSZ069-020700-
Butler KS-
134 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 200 AM CDT.

* At 132 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near El Dorado...
  moving southeast at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, El Dorado Airport, El Dorado Lake and El Dorado State
  Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9698 3797 9687 3784 9665 3770 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0633Z 318DEG 14KT 3786 9689

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
206 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

KSZ052-020730-
Marion KS-
206 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 203 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Tampa, or 13 miles north of
  Hillsboro...moving southeast at 10 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lincolnville, Ramona, Durham, Tampa, Lost Springs, Pilsen and
  Marion Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9692 3851 9692 3837 9721
      3861 9730 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 311DEG 8KT 3855 9719

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

KSZ069-020915-
Butler KS-
344 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  South central Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 415 AM CDT.

* At 343 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Leon...moving southeast at 5
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Leon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 9695 3774 9691 3774 9671 3757 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0844Z 297DEG 6KT 3768 9687

MCGUIRE

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