Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Tonight:
Anticipate ongoing high precipitation storms will dwindle this
evening with loss of heating. Still appears probable that storms
rolling off High Plains will move into central KS sometime around
or just after midnight, given favorable upper support. Anticipate
storms will hold together overnight given the upper diffluent and
departing jet streak. The unknown is the southern extent of the
storms towards daybreak, which would be further removed from
upper support, but into a more moisture rich environment. Quick
peek at 1800 UTC SPC HRRR looks to be in the ballpark both the
rest of this afternoon and tonight.

Tuesday:
Think some showers/storms will probably be ongoing in the morning
across Flint Hills and into southeast KS. It is possible
precipitation might end in the morning, but thinking middle level
warm air advection and MCV would keep it festering. It is not
inconceivable that precipitation could linger/expand back across
central KS in the morning with middle level warm air advection.
With additional heating in the afternoon and plenty of moisture,
think storms will either develop or increase in the afternoon,
aided by outflow from morning storms.

Tues night-Thursday:
Front will likely push through sometime Tuesday night or
Wednesday, with a fair amount of slop on timing between various
models. Odds likely favor slower arrival if storms are less
organized Tuesday night. Kept small chances going in southeast KS
Tuesday night ahead of front. Drier air supposedly filters in
during the day Wednesday. Still not entirely convinced that
Wednesday will be completely dry - thinking slower frontal passage
is more likely, but consensus dictated a dry forecast on
Wednesday. Expansive surface high pressure will cover the area
later Wednesday through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Weak return flow develops on Friday, with a slow increase in low
level moisture. Rising upper heights also signals an increase in
temperatures. There is an outside chance of isolated storms Sunday
afternoon in southeast KS and then again Monday, but chances were
too low to include at this point. Of note, ECMWF still shows
remnants of tropical system approaching area late Monday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

Aviation concern will be overnight storms.

Line of storms has been steadily pushing east out of western KS
over the last several hours with this trend expected to continue
overnight. They should reach KRSL-KGBD around 07z and KSLN around
08z with the main threat 40 to 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Will
keep thunder out of Wichita for now but will throw some VCTS in at
KHUT. This activity should be out of the forecast area a couple
hours prior to sunrise, leaving VFR conditions in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  93  74  92 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      71  93  72  91 /  30  10  10  10
Newton          71  92  72  90 /  30  20  10  10
ElDorado        72  91  73  90 /  20  20  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  91  73  92 /  20  10  20  10
Russell         66  94  68  89 /  70  10  10   0
Great Bend      67  93  69  90 /  50  10  10   0
Salina          70  93  71  90 /  60  20  10  10
McPherson       70  92  71  90 /  40  20  10  10
Coffeyville     73  91  74  94 /  40  20  30  10
Chanute         72  90  74  92 /  30  30  20  10
Iola            72  90  74  92 /  30  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    73  90  74  93 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1047 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Storms over western Kansas are expected to move into central Kansas
around midnight then turn southeast later in the night. There is a
good chance that some of these storms will be strong, and a few may
be severe. Flood producing torrential rain is the greatest threat.
The threat for severe storms with winds around 60 mph is highest
west of a line from Salina to Great Bend. 50 to 60 mph winds are
possible elsewhere overnight.

Flooding continues across eastern Saline county due to recent heavy
rains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated storms are forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Flood
producing heavy rain is the main threat, along with 40-50 mph winds.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 are forecast across south central and
southeast Kansas both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, and in
central Kansas Friday and Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

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