Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Tonight:
Challenging summer forecasts continue with outflow boundary at
late afternoon roughly parallel and a bit south of Highway 400.
This boundary has slowed to a crawl in the west, but still pushing
south across southeast KS. Anticipate this boundary will be
primary focus for storms through sunset, with both severe
downburst winds and heavy rain/flooding potential. Later this
evening, anticipate combo of rich moisture spreading back north as
outflow retreats and modest increase in low level jet will result
in development of storms somewhere south of i-70 in western half
of KS. These storms will subsequently move into the forecast area
overnight.

Saturday:
Given that none of the models handled today's convection very
well, confidence in precipitation forecast on Saturday is low.
Robust overnight convection would significantly limit chances in
the morning, assuming cold pool pushes effective boundary into OK,
otherwise may be left with festering showers in the vicinity of
boundary throughout the morning. Diurnal heating and isolated
storms are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures of course will
be dependent on cloud cover/precipitation and hedged closer to
census on Saturday.

Sunday-Monday:
Dirty ridge will continue through at least Monday, signaling poor
forecastability. Rounds of storms are probable, more likely coming
off High Plains during the night with isolated afternoon storms.
High temperatures will be highly dependent on clouds and
precipitation. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

Shortwave moving through Northern Plains will flatten ridge at
the onset of the period. This may allow front to push well south
of the area, providing some reprieve from heating/precipitation
after one last nocturnal MCS Tuesday night. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

SCT (+)TSRA are going to continue to cause problems throughout the
night as a couple boundaries meander across KS. One such boundary,
that is outflow-related, has been situated very close to the OK/KS
border. (+)TSRA have developed very quickly over Harper & SW
Sumner County & are being watched closely for severe potential. In
areas where (+)TSRA occur, pockets of IFR vsbys are likely. The
2nd boundary that is somewhat poorly defined due to ongoing TSRA
from SW KS to NC KS would continue to produce (+)TSRA. Pockets of
IFR vsbys are likely where +TSRA occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  73  90 /  40  30  40  30
Hutchinson      71  91  71  89 /  50  30  40  30
Newton          71  89  71  89 /  50  30  40  40
ElDorado        72  91  71  88 /  40  30  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   72  93  71  90 /  40  30  40  30
Russell         70  88  70  87 /  60  40  60  40
Great Bend      70  89  70  87 /  50  40  50  30
Salina          71  88  71  88 /  50  40  50  40
McPherson       71  88  71  88 /  50  40  50  40
Coffeyville     74  91  72  91 /  30  30  30  30
Chanute         73  91  71  89 /  40  40  40  30
Iola            73  90  71  88 /  40  40  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    74  91  72  90 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ049-051>053.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
446 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
446 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms may linger into this evening across south central and
southeast Kansas. The main threat will be flood producing heavy
rain. An isolated strong to severe storms with small hail and 50-60
mph winds is also possible.

Thunderstorms that develop over western Kansas are expected to move
into the area later tonight. Very heavy rain which could cause
flooding is the primary threat, but 50 to 60 mph winds are also
possible.

Flooding continues on the Cottonwood River in central Kansas. Check
the latest river flood statements for details. Other flooding due to
recent heavy rain, will continue over parts of eastern Saline,
eastern McPherson, Marion and Chase counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There will be multiple opportunities for thunderstorms, some strong
to severe, through Wednesday. The main hazards will be flood producing
heavy rain and strong to damaging winds. The threat area and timing
will continue to be refined in the coming days, so continue to check
later outlooks for updated information.

Flooding will likely continue on the Cottonwood River and low lying
across through the weekend. Flooding will likely linger into the
weekend over parts of eastern Saline, eastern McPherson and Marion
counties due to recent heavy rain.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 are forecast over much of the area
through Wednesday. This is moore likely across south central and
southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1002 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     FLOOD            2 E GREAT BEND          38.36N 98.77W
07/05/2019                   BARTON             KS   STORM CHASER

            CHASER REPORTS A LOT OF STREET FLOODING IN
            GREAT BEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG HWY 56. REPORT
            VIA TWITTER.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1010 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S ALBERT              38.38N 99.01W
07/05/2019  M1.42 INCH       BARTON             KS   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL OCCURRED FROM 8:45 PM TO 10:05 PM.
            REPORT VIA TWITTER.

&&

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

KSZ047-050-067-060330-
Reno KS-Rice KS-Barton KS-
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Rice County in central Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 1019 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Raymond, or 6 miles southeast
  of Ellinwood...moving east at 15 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lyons, Sterling, Ellinwood, Chase, Alden, Raymond and Silica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 9862 3838 9818 3808 9818 3809 9847
      3826 9847 3826 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 279DEG 15KT 3828 9851

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

KSZ050-067-060400-
Reno KS-Rice KS-
1031 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Rice County in central Kansas...

* Until 1100 PM CDT.

* At 1030 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Raymond, or 9 miles southeast
  of Ellinwood...moving east at 15 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lyons, Sterling, Chase, Alden, Raymond and Silica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9817 3805 9817 3805 9847 3826 9847
      3826 9848 3841 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 278DEG 15KT 3827 9846

DARMOFAL