Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

A rather vigorous weather system is moving through the CWA this
morning which will bring a mix of spring and wintry weather.  The
front is currently stretched across Southeast Kansas and into
Missouri and Oklahoma this morning.  There is significant moisture
transport across the frontal boundary providing the system will
plenty of moisture to work with.  Showers, drizzle and patchy fog
can be expected across most of the CWA today.  Additionally, there
is a decent amount of instability aloft above the inversion layer.
This will bring in the chance for some embedded thunderstorms this
morning and during the day.  The proximity of the front in the
Eastern half of the State with CAA behind the front makes for a
challenging temperature forecast.  Most model guidance indicates the
front will not retreat much this morning or during the day today, if
at all.  As such, expect most areas to remain below normal for today
and into tomorrow.

There is a heavy rain concern for the eastern half of the CWA were
the moisture transport is expected to remain rather strong through
the day.  Combine this added moisture to the frontogenesis along the
front and the decent elevated instability could create some
thunderstorms with some heavy rain across portions of Southeast
Kansas this afternoon.  A flood watch was considered for this region
but held off as precipitation amounts were not that high Thursday
and feel the ground will be able to handle the expected rain at this
time. However, areas which are prone to flooding may experience some
minor flooding this afternoon with the heavier downpours this
afternoon.

Friday night and into Saturday, the front will have moved off the
east.  CAA will be in control of the region.  Moisture transport
will still be decent and will provide enough overrunning to allow
from light rain and drizzle to be possible much of the time.
Temperatures look cold enough to allow snow to mix in during late
night Friday and into Saturday morning.  Parts of West Central
Kansas are likely to some accumulating snow.  Snow amounts of an inch
or less are possible in these areas.  The remainder of the CWA is
not expected to see more than trace amounts with much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas not likely to see any snow mix in with
the rain at all.  By Saturday afternoon, rapid clearing is expected
and the weather will calm down for the  remainder of the short term.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

The extended range will be marked by a gradual warm up from the
colder and below normal temperatures from the short term.  The
weather looks to remain quiet until the end of next week.  Most of
the long range models indicate another weather system will be
encroaching on the region.  Moisture transport ahead of this system
looks strong enough to allow for some showers and possibility some
thunderstorms Thursday and into Friday.  Confidence remains low for
the moment on the timing and intensity of the this next system as
some models are much weaker and further to the east.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

IFR conditions currently dominate the region with showers and
thunderstorms likely through the day. HUT, ICT and CNU are the
terminals mostly likely to have thunderstorm activity. CNU will be
at the highest risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. RSL,
GBD will have the best chances for snow to mix in with the rain
this evening and overnight. Accmulations are not expected to be
signifcant during the overnight hours. The IFR conditions with the
rain and thunderstorms are expected to remain over the region
through out this TAF period.

Metzger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Fire weather conditions look to remain good for the next several
days.  Cloudy skies, high rain chances with snow in the mix and
below normal temperatures for the next day or so will keep the fire
danger very low.

Metzger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    56  37  47  26 /  60  50  20   0
Hutchinson      49  35  46  25 /  70  50  20   0
Newton          51  35  45  25 /  80  60  20   0
ElDorado        57  36  46  26 /  70  60  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   63  38  48  27 /  50  50  20   0
Russell         43  33  44  23 /  80  70  20   0
Great Bend      45  34  44  23 /  60  70  30   0
Salina          47  35  45  24 /  90  60  30   0
McPherson       48  35  45  24 /  80  50  30   0
Coffeyville     65  41  49  28 /  50  80  30   0
Chanute         62  39  46  27 /  80  80  30   0
Iola            61  38  46  27 /  80  80  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    64  40  47  27 /  60  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ELM
FIRE WEATHER...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
513 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
513 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the
region today. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
very heavy rain and hail up to inch possible. The heavy rain and
hail threat is expected to be along and east of the Turnpike and
primarily in the early to late afternoon.

Tonight, light rain and embedded thunderstorms are likely across
the region with some storms having small hail under three quarters
of an inch. Some snow is expected to mix in with the rain.
Accumulating snow is generally not expected on roadways but light
accumulations are possible on grassy surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A light rain and snow mix is likely during the early morning
Saturday. There will be little if any additional accumulations
expected. This activity is expected to end by Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday and into Wednesday, Grassland Fire Danger will get into the
Very high category with brisk southerly winds. The fire danger looks
to abate by Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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