Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A very active weather pattern for the short term as a stalled
frontal system is draped over the region.  Current satellite shows
most of Southern Kansas covered in low clouds which will hinder the
recovery today as far as temperatures.  The extent of the cloud
cover will also make it more difficult to produce the wide spread
thunderstorm activity.  Southwest Kansas is the most unstable with
some semi-discrete thunderstorms already firing up. MUCAPE and 0-6Km
Bulk shear slowly ramp up during the day today which does raise the
specter of severe thunderstorms again for much of the CWA.  The main
hindrance for severe weather today will again be the cloud cover and
how worked over the atmosphere is at the moment due to two straight
days of thunderstorm activity. This has handicapped the lapse rates
in the 5-6 deg/km range.  This is not good for wide spread severe.
On the other hand, MUCAPE is progged to be in the 2000-2500 J/Kg and
0-6Km Bulk Shear is in the 35-45kt range through the afternoon. This
is more favorable for severe weather but not great either. Moisture
transport is excellent and will provide ample fuel to any
thunderstorm activity that is expected occur. Main threats at this
afternoon and overnight will be quarter to half dollar sized hail
and 60-70 mph winds.  The tornado threat does not look great but low
level shear is good so a few tornados are possible. With the
moisture transport looking very good for this afternoon and evening
there is a strong chance for persistent heavy rain throughout the
evening (see more in Hydro section).

Wednesday, this frontal system will be slowly moving through the CWA
which will keep the weather very unsettled.  Showers and
thunderstorms, some of them severe will continue to be likely
through Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Unlike today, Wednesday
the moisture transport will be significantly less with the bulk of
the good moisture transport shunted off to the East in Missouri and
Arkansas.  MUCAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg with 0-6Km
shear expected to be in the 35-40kt range with an orientation nearly
parallel to the front.  While these parameters are often decent for
thunderstorm activity with some severe, the lapse rates are a paltry
3-5 deg/Km. Considering cloud cover will likely be extensive making
recovery difficult, the severe weather threat looks to decrease some
during the day.  Heavy rain threat also looks to diminish as well
but the atmosphere looks to remain unsettled enough to keep wide
spread showers and thunderstorms.  The main variable for Wednesday
will be the cloud cover and how the thunderstorm activity tonight
evolves.  If the sun comes out Wednesday afternoon, the chances for
severe thunderstorms will go up significantly.

Thursday the front will have moved through and high pressure will be
coming into the region.  Northerly flow and CAA will take full
control.  This will start to shut down the showers and thunderstorms
and push them off to the east.  Temperatures will come down below
normal for a couple of days

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A much calmer weather pattern will dominate the region extended
range through the weekend.  Temperatures will be near or a little
below normal.  Rain chances will be much lower with Saturday looking
to be the only day of the Weekend with any significant chance for
showers and thunderstorms.  Severe weather does not look likely for
Saturday at this time.  Southerly flow does not look to return to
the region until Sunday and into Monday.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

Low clouds will continue to linger over central KS north of the
cold front. Meanwhile showers/storms will develop and move
northeast from western Kansas across portions of central and south
central KS for this afternoon through tonight. Some of the storms
will produce heavy rainfall and a few will become severe. The low
clouds cloud spread further south into southern Kansas towards
daybreak.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  74  45  54 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      59  71  43  53 /  90  60  40  10
Newton          59  72  42  52 /  90  60  50  10
ElDorado        60  74  45  53 /  90  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  75  47  56 /  90  50  50  10
Russell         53  66  39  53 /  90  60  40  20
Great Bend      54  67  40  52 /  80  50  40  20
Salina          58  69  42  54 /  90  60  50  10
McPherson       59  70  42  53 /  90  60  50  10
Coffeyville     63  76  53  59 /  90  80  60  10
Chanute         63  75  50  57 /  90  60  70  20
Iola            62  75  50  56 /  90  70  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    63  75  52  58 /  90  70  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
347 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe weather is possible for mainly southern Kansas this
afternoon through the late evening hours. Very large hail up to
baseball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes
will be possible. The storms could congeal into a bowing line
segments later tonight with damaging winds as the main risk.

In addition, numerous showers and storms continue to develop and
move across the region tonight. Some of this activity could train
over the same areas. This would increase the risk for flash
flooding, please see the Flash Flood Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning, primarily
with a gusty wind and heavy rain threat. Additional thunderstorms
may redevelop Wednesday afternoon, but it is uncertain how strong
they will be able to get due to previous rounds of thunderstorms.
Should any storms become severe, the main threat looks to be east
of the Kansas Turnpike.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, significant rises on rivers
and creeks are expected across a large portion of the area. Please
see the latest River Flood Warnings and statements for additional
details. Additionally, depending on how much rain falls tonight,
residual flash and areal flooding is likely to cause some
significant problems through much of Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE OXFORD            37.26N 97.11W
05/07/2019  M2.57 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 45 MINUTES.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S AUGUSTA             37.68N 96.98W
05/07/2019                   BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER THE ROAD, SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

BDK