Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

Main challenge is the effective frontal boundary placement Tuesday
through Wednesday, especially with regard to diurnal surface
based convection and severe potential. Otherwise, a good signal
for episodic heavy rainfall, mainly nocturnal/early morning both
Monday and Tuesday nights somewhere across the forecast area.

After a chance for strong to severe surface based convection this
evening across western portions of central Kansas, some modest
elevated moisture transport later tonight may support scattered
convection across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Modest
instability and cloud bearing shear combo may support a couple
strong storms.

The cold front will be the focus for organized convection Monday
afternoon/evening. A very unstable airmass is progged ahead of
the front with MLCape values at or above 3000 J/KG over south
central and southeast Kansas by late afternoon/early evening.
Despite modest deep layer shear as shortwave upper ridging moves
across the area, it should be sufficient in tandem with frontal
convergence/lift to promote sustained/organized updrafts and
strong to severe storms. A hail risk initially should transition
to down-burst/outflow wind potential into the evening. The main
weather hazard looks to shift to locally heavy rainfall later in
the evening into a portion of Monday night as the low level jet
ramps up over the surface front owing to strong elevated moisture
transport and higher precipitable water values.

Details beyond Monday night become a bit more uncertain as the
extent of prior convection and mesoscale influences will likely
determine the effective surface boundary position and focus for
the better chances for more robust severe convection. In this
regard, prefer a lean toward the NAM in maintaining a more
southern position to the front through mid-week. This would
likely keep the the best chance for organized severe storms along
or just south of the Kansas border on Tuesday afternoon/evening.
However, there is another decent signal for elevated convection
with embedded heavy rainfall later Tuesday evening/night with
stronger moisture transport within the modest low level jet. There
remains model consensus in lifting out a moderate strength upper
trof across the area during Wednesday. The NAM remains further
south with the effective surface front due to prior mesoscale
convection/complexes, though possibly creeping into portions of
southeast Kansas. The GFS would place most of the forecast area in
the juicy/unstable warm sector with a greater risk for a severe
event. So a conditional, perhaps higher end severe risk is still
possible late Wednesday across portions of far southern Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

Still looks a trend to cooler and generally drier weather for the
end of the week with Kansas between influences of a split upper
flow regime across the CONUS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

As of mid-day, the convective activity that was slowly making its
way across southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma this morning has
diminished quite a bit as it entered the forecast area in less
favorable environmental parameters to support continued
thunderstorm development. Latest satellite and radar imagery shows
that the remaining showers/isolated thunder threat will largely
miss the TAF sites to the south, though VCSH was inserted for an
hour or so for KHUT and KICT as the remnants continue trekking
off to the east. As for later today, the main question will be
regarding potential storms this evening and overnight tonight. For
this TAF issuance, inserted VCTS for now, initially in central
Kansas and then for south central/southeast Kansas. The timing and
coverage of storms will continue to be monitored and updated as
needed with amendments and future issuances this evening. By
tomorrow morning, MVFR cigs are expected to overspread much of the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  77  59  72 /  30  50  80  40
Hutchinson      58  75  55  69 /  30  50  80  50
Newton          60  75  57  69 /  30  50  80  40
ElDorado        60  77  58  71 /  50  60  80  50
Winfield-KWLD   60  78  60  74 /  40  40  80  40
Russell         56  69  50  62 /  20  60  70  60
Great Bend      56  71  51  64 /  20  50  80  60
Salina          59  73  54  65 /  30  60  80  60
McPherson       58  74  55  68 /  30  60  80  50
Coffeyville     60  79  62  76 /  50  40  80  50
Chanute         59  78  60  73 /  60  60  80  50
Iola            59  78  59  72 /  60  60  80  50
Parsons-KPPF    60  79  60  75 /  60  50  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
353 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
353 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe storms will be possible this evening generally along and west
of the Kansas turnpike. Large hail up to half dollar size and
damaging wind gust to 65 mph will be possible. Strong storms with
small hail will be possible overnight, mainly east of the Kansas
turnpike after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and early
evening along a southward moving cold front. Large hail will be
possible before transitioning to locally damaging wind gusts. Heavy
rainfall is also likely Monday evening and into Monday night, mainly
across south central and southeast Kansas.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue across the entire
area Tuesday through Wednesday night. Locally heavy rainfall can be
expected with a risk for strong to severe storms. The magnitude and
location for the greatest severe risk is a bit uncertain as it will
depend on the movement and placement of the surface front wavering
across the area. So check back for later updates as confidence on
specific details increases in the next couple of days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is a remote possibility early this evening across
portions of central Kansas, mainly west of highway 14.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
458 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

KSZ047-048-050-052230-
Ellsworth KS-Rice KS-Barton KS-
458 PM CDT Sun May 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Rice County in central Kansas...
  Northeastern Barton County in central Kansas...

* Until 530 PM CDT.

* At 455 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southeast of Hoisington...
  moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hoisington, Claflin, Holyrood, Bushton, Geneseo, Lorraine,
  Frederick, Cheyenne Bottoms and Odin.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9859 3870 9849 3874 9849 3854 9811
      3840 9842 3836 9864 3849 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 245DEG 12KT 3844 9868

VAUGHAN