Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
556 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

There is a trough along the Front Range that is working its way into
the Plains. Ahead of this system, Kansas welcomed another lovely
fall day other than the breeze which is pretty typical anyways.
Afternoon temperatures rose to the upper 60s to the mid 70s.
Southerly winds were definitely breezy with sustained speeds of 15
to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Hopefully you were able to enjoy
this weather because a change is in store for the work/school
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Highlights:

1) Thunderstorms east of Flint Hills this evening/tonight

2) Cooler for Monday and Tuesday

Challenge: Westward extent of precipitation chances this evening

As mentioned above, there is a trough that will continue to move
across the Plains in an east northeast path this evening into
Monday. A cold front associated with this system is on the watch
list so to speak. Model reflectivities show convective initiation
along the cold front around 0Z (7PM) in eastern Nebraska and north
central Kansas. There appears to be development further south
essentially near the Kansas Turnpike and eastern Oklahoma around 3Z
(10PM). Despite 60-80ks of bulk shear, the instability is not great
in eastern Kansas; however, there is enough to continue to suggest
the possibility of a strong to maybe even a severe storm in
southeast Kansas. This is highlighted in the Storm Prediction
Center's slight risk over that area. The better instability is
definitely further to the south where an enhanced risk is placed
across southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Threats for the these
thunderstorms in southeast Kansas would be nickel to quarter sized
hail and 50-60 mph winds. Movement of the front will be fairly quick
resulting in a quick exit of precipitation activity by 9Z (4AM).

A northwest flow regime will follow as the closed low trough deepens
on its northeast track to the Great Lakes. Cold air advection and
northwest flow mean a cool down would occur on Monday with high
temperatures in the lower 60s which is roughly five degrees below
seasonal climatological normals (upper 60s). As the system exits,
winds may approach Wind Advisory criteria in central Kansas which is
currently forecast with this issuance. Winds were increased from the
previous issuance and are closer to the CONSALL model. Since there
was such an increase in the speeds, the decision was made to hold
off to issue any headlines to make sure the expectation would be the
same with the next issuance of the forecast. Northwest flow persists
for Tuesday meaning another day of highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Highlights:

1) Showers and possible rain/snow mix Thursday morning

2) Cooler Thursday and Friday

The next wave is anticipated to move through Wednesday-Thursday.
Chances of precipitation move in after midnight (Wed night/Thu
morning). While most areas will see rain, it is possible that
central Kansas may see a mixture of rain and snow. Cold air
advection will push in on Thursday where the high temperature may
occur at midnight. Breezy winds with temperatures in the upper 30s
to mid 40s are anticipated resulting in a chill factor specifically
in the morning with wind chills in the upper 20s to lower 30s in
central and portions of south central Kansas. Some model variability
exists with this system which could adjust the timing of the cold
air and chances for precipitation.

There does appear to be the possibility of another wave on Saturday,
yet this is uncertain given differences in the model solutions.
Slight chances of rain were inserted for portions of south central
and southeast Kansas. These will likely be adjusted. Saturday should
be slightly warmer with highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Main aviation concern will be storms tonight.

Water vapor imagery shows a powerful low pressure system spinning
over northwest Nebraska with a strong upper jet stretching across
KS. At the surface, surface low is stacked below the upper low
over northern Nebraska/southern SD, with a cold front bisecting KS
from N to S, with the front just west of I-135. Storms are
expected to develop along the front this evening, with initiation
most likely taking place along or just east of I-135. Limited
moisture and instability will keep storms from getting too rowdy
initially, but may grow in intensity as the front gets into SE KS
where slightly better moisture will be located. So KCNU will have
the best chance at seeing widespread storms with a severe storm or
two possible, generally after 03z.

With great mixing expected behind the front tomorrow, very strong
northwest winds are expected, especially over central KS.
Sustained speeds will likely be in the 30-35 mph range with gusts
over 40 mph for KRSL-KGBD-KSLN, starting in the early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  66  40  67 /  40   0   0   0
Hutchinson      44  63  38  67 /  20   0   0   0
Newton          45  63  39  65 /  40   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  64  40  65 /  50   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  66  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         42  60  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      41  61  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          44  63  38  66 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       44  63  37  65 /  20   0   0   0
Coffeyville     46  66  40  65 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute         46  64  41  64 /  80   0   0   0
Iola            45  64  41  63 /  90   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    46  64  41  64 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-212100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
351 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible
this evening mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. The main risks
will be dime to quarter sized hail and wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Breezy winds are anticipated on Monday with sustained values
reaching 25 to near 30 mph mainly in central Kansas. High fire
danger is expected based on the wind speeds and current curing
level.

A surge of much cooler air is expected to move across the
area on Thursday. There is a slight chance for snow mixed with rain
across portions central Kansas Thursday morning. However, little if
any snow accumulation is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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