Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Area of strong low and mid-level moisture transport may continue
to support some widely scattered elevated, quasi-surface based
convection along/east of the turnpike late this afternoon.
However, the more robust surface based storms are expected to
develop along the front in central Kansas by early evening, where
bulk shear of 35-40kts, around 2800 j/kg of MLcape will support
severe storms. While mainly a large hail and down-burst wind
threat, a non-zero brief tornado risk is possible with any initial
discrete cells. Otherwise, the mode should transition to linear
clusters along the front later in the evening. Main risk overnight
will be heavy rainfall. Southwesterly low level jet impinging
over the front may promote a period of back-building/northward
propagation within the developing mesoscale complex across central
Kansas. Then later in the night thru Sunday morning, another area
of convection within the deeper moisture transport should develop
along/east of the turnpike across the southern Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas. The front is expected to progress south across
the area on Sunday with best convective chances and potential for
localized heavy rainfall lingering across southeast Kansas until
late afternoon. Progressive clearing/drying is expected in the
wake of the departing front and upper trof Sunday night with dry
and seasonably mild weather for Monday. However, moisture is
expected to return by Tuesday with a return of modest precip/
convective chances.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A significant upper trof will sweep east-southeast across the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday sending a decent cold front
south across Kansas. This should drop temperatures closer to late
September climo Wednesday and/or Thursday depending on the timing.
A large vortex aloft develops across Canada for mid to late in
the week as a deeper trough develops along the West coast. This
will kick out a closed low from the Baja region/Southwest CONUS as
a trof moving northeast across the Plains. Temperatures should
warm in the southerly flow on Friday and probably remain warm into
Saturday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Scattered showers and storms impacting southeast KS and KCNU
during the morning hours will gradually propagate eastward away
from the area as we move into the mid afternoon hours. Other
showers and storms may develop within the moist axis over central
OK impacting portions of southeast KS later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, VFR and breezy southwest winds prevailed across central
KS through the late morning and early afternoon hours. Winds will
veer ahead of a slow moving cold front across central KS this
afternoon. This front will provide a focus for some severe storms
after 3-5 PM across our central KS counties possibly impacting
KRSL, KGBD and KSLN into the evening hours. More widespread storm
development tonight will impact much of the area with reduced
flight categories likely through much of the night. Winds behind
the front will shift to the northwest and this front is expected
across central KS in the 11Z-14Z timeframe on Sunday spreading
slowly south and eastward across south central Kansas towards
midday and southeast KS during the afternoon hours. The front may
provide a focus for showers and storms across portions of south
central and all of southeast KS during the day on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  79  56  81 /  60  60   0   0
Hutchinson      67  77  54  81 /  60  50   0   0
Newton          68  77  54  80 /  70  70   0   0
ElDorado        69  78  54  79 /  80  80  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   69  79  56  80 /  80  80  10   0
Russell         61  77  55  84 /  80  40   0   0
Great Bend      62  76  54  83 /  80  40   0   0
Salina          66  76  55  82 /  90  60   0   0
McPherson       66  75  53  80 /  80  60   0   0
Coffeyville     70  79  59  82 /  80  90  30   0
Chanute         70  78  55  80 /  80  90  30   0
Iola            70  78  54  80 /  80  90  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    70  78  57  81 /  80  90  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
afternoon for KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
morning for KSZ033-048-049.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ092-212130-
Sumner KS-
359 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 355 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles south of Argonia, or 10
  miles northwest of Caldwell...moving northeast at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Conway Springs, Argonia, Mayfield, Milan, Riverdale and
  Wellington Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9780 3723 9780 3748 9757 3748 9747
      3733 9728 3704 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 223DEG 31KT 3717 9772

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
403 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

KSZ093-212130-
Cowley KS-
403 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 401 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Dexter, or 13 miles west of
  Cedar Vale...moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dexter, Cambridge and Maple City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9680 3713 9688 3746 9654 3708 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 230DEG 20KT 3711 9674

MCGUIRE