Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Complex scenario unfolding tonight and the next couple of days. A
Flash Flood Watch has been issued.

First will be the threat of severe weather tonight across
central, south central, and southeast Kansas. Northwesterly flow
is sitting overhead and a shortwave is on its way through southern
Nebraska. Storms are expected to develop along an east-west
oriented cold front this evening along the Kansas/Nebraska border.
This cold front feeds into a weak sfc low currently near the
KS/NE/CO border. Additionally, storms have initiated along the
dryline extending south out of the sfc low and satellite imagery
shows aggravated cumulus bubbling along the front.

Very moist low levels and adequate heating today has contributed
to a very unstable environment area wide. RAP sounds show
impressive CAPE values (MU 5000, ML 4000) with very steep lapse
rates nearing 8C/km in central KS and effective bulk shear of
30-35kts. DCAPE is equally as impressive with values near 1400
J/kg and with drier midlevels and increasing PWs of 1.5 to 2
inches. Storms that come through central Kansas before being a
more linear complex will have the potential for significant hail
of 2 inches and damaging winds 60-70 mph possible.

As storms continue to grow upscale tonight expect the hail threat
to dampen some and transition to a largely wind threat for the
remainder of the night. While the threat of any tornados are low,
there is decent storm relative helicity available (130 0-1 km
SRH, 175 0-3km SRH) that could favor an isolated mesovortice in a
bowing line. These storms are expected to quickly grow upscale
into an organized MCS. Corfidi vectors would suggest this MCS
initially move toward the southeast and then take more of a
southward plunge. Meanwhile moisture transport is progged to
increase considerably overnight with a strengthening southerly
LLJ. The LLJ and better moisture transport are progged to veer
slightly with time. This may create a secondary area of
convergence along any potential outflow boundary and perhaps bring
storm coverage farther west as the MCS backbuilds. Given forecast
PWs of near 2 inches overnight expect torrential rainfall with
these storms. Due to significant rainfall potential, combined with
recent rainfall over the area, opted for a Flash Flood Watch
across the warning area (less Russell and Barton Counties). Flash
flooding and river flooding are likely and will need to be
monitored overnight.

Wherever the outflow ends up will likely be a focus for renewed
showers and convection through the day tomorrow. Several models
show lingering showers and storms across the area thus left a
decent amount of pops in the forecast for this. Confidence then
decreases somewhat for tomorrow night into early Sunday morning.
Whether or not we recover from the MCS, and again where the
outflow sets up, will impact where any convection sets up. Models
are still not in agreement and may change drastically depending
on the outcome of convection tonight. Will let the next shift
take a look at tomorrow nights-sunday convection potential. Left
QPF a shave on the drier side given uncertainty.

Ridging will try to build back in during the day on Sunday and
start to dry us out. Expect temps in the mid 80s and set up a
decent week in the extended.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 408 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Expect quieter conditions Labor Dy and throughout the the
extended period. An upper ridge will be building overhead next
week leaving the area dry and under general high pressure. Expect
temperatures to remain around seasonable normal in the upper 80s
and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Main aviation concern will be overnight storms.

Cold front currently extends from southeast Nebraska into far
NW KS with a dryline extending south of KGLD. Storms have
developed over SW Nebraska and far western KS along the front and
dryline with this activity expected to continuing tracking south
with some expansion expected as the low level jet cranks up this
evening. Storms will be a good bet for most TAF sites overnight,
affecting KICT and KCNU after midnight. Damaging straight-line
winds and hail will be the main threats, along with very heavy
rainfall. By sunrise, far southern and southeast KS should be the
only areas still being affected by storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  67  83 /  60  50  60  60
Hutchinson      68  82  65  83 /  60  50  70  60
Newton          68  81  66  82 /  60  60  70  60
ElDorado        69  82  67  83 /  80  70  60  60
Winfield-KWLD   68  83  67  83 /  70  60  50  60
Russell         66  79  64  83 /  50  50  70  40
Great Bend      67  81  64  83 /  50  50  70  40
Salina          68  81  66  82 /  70  50  70  50
McPherson       68  81  64  81 /  60  50  70  60
Coffeyville     70  82  69  83 /  70  70  40  60
Chanute         69  80  68  82 /  70  70  50  60
Iola            69  80  68  82 /  80  70  50  60
Parsons-KPPF    69  80  68  82 /  70  70  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday
afternoon for KSZ033-048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KMB
LONG TERM...KMB
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
443 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
443 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of central KS and all
of south central and southeast KS from 10pm tonight through noon
tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening and
overnight. Strong to severe storms are likely. The main threats are
localized flooding, 60-75mph wind gusts, and large hail (potentially
2 in hail early in central Kansas).

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Flash Flood Watch will continue through noon on Friday.

Lingering storms from overnight convection possible during the day
Friday, a few of which may be strong.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow night through
Saturday. Some storms could be strong to severe with hail and
damaging wind, and localized flooding as the main threats,
especially in south central Kansas. There is greater uncertainty in
tomorrow nights forecast so be sure to check back for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Butler

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W LYONS               38.35N 98.26W
08/29/2019  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW SALINA             38.78N 97.65W
08/29/2019  M60 MPH          SALINE             KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSLN SALINA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S GREAT BEND AIRPORT  38.33N 98.85W
08/29/2019  M56 MPH          BARTON             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION K5GTB US-56 - GREAT BEND.

&&