Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
653 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Morning low clouds continue to slowly erode with the afternoon
heating. Focus late this afternoon through tonight will be severe
weather chances and flooding threat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon or this evening across NW KS, close to the Neb/KS
line, ahead a fairly strong mid level wave currently over the
panhandle of Neb, in the upslope flow regime. The combination of
good forcing, a mid level baroclinic zone, moderate instability and
bulk shear will lead to this scattered cluster of storms becoming
severe as it begins to shift SE towards central KS. Most of the
convective bearing hi-rez model solutions bear this out. There is
one caveat, that further south in the warm sector, west of a KHYS to
KGBD line, a few discrete supercells may develop ahead of the
cluster in NW KS late this afternoon.  Any supercell that develops
may track east towards central KS.  If a supercell can remain
discrete, all facets of severe weather will be possible, given
favorable directional shear profiles with 2 inch hail, damaging
winds and even a tornado or two.

As the evening progresses, expect the south-southeast moving storm
cluster, in central KS, to congeal with any discrete supercells,
into a strongly forced forward propagating complex of storms (MCS).
As it moves south, cold pool will lead to the complex accelerating
south, with the cluster turning into a damaging wind (60-70mph
winds) and flooding threat. Think the complex makes it into south
central KS after 09z.  Have already expanded the flood watch further
to the east to areas along and just east of I-135, given high
precipitable water values.  Forward propagation of the complex will
probably limit the flash flooding/heavy rainfall threat, but do
expect high rainfall rates, which may lead to street flooding and
lowland flooding. Still think some areas could see 1 to 3 inches of
rainfall.

Think showers/storms will be ongoing across most of southern KS into
Sunday morning possibly into Sun afternoon for eastern sections, so
will keep some chance pops in for the lingering showers/storms on
Sun.

Increasing warm advection for late Sun into Mon will push most of
the convective activity further northeast of the area thru early
Mon. Could see some sort of complex of storms move across NE KS and
eastern KS for early Mon. A strong cold front looks to push south
across the area for Mon night through early Tue, so storm chances
will return to much of southern KS for late Monday night. Both the
ECMWF and GFS coming through a little faster with this front than
previous runs, which would lead to storm chances increasing on Mon
afternoon and Mon night.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The middle to end of the week looks dry, with possibly some
lingering storms along the KS/OK border early Tue, as the medium
range models suggests a ridge of high pressure will settle over the
plains. This will lead to a period of dry and seasonal conditions
for the area. Model blends look way over done with pops for Wed, so
with collaboration with neighbors, lowered or removed pops for most
of Wed/Wed night.

Medium range models now suggesting another cold front will push into
the area for late Thu into early Fri.  This looks like another shot
of showers and storms for the area.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Expecting thunderstorm chances to increase from the northwest this
evening and overnight, with the highest confidence across central
and south-central Kansas. Strong to severe wind gusts, intense
rainfall and IFR conditions are possible within the strongest
cores. Thunderstorm chances may tend to linger past daybreak
across mainly central and south-central Kansas, within a zone of
persistent 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport.
Activity should gradually decrease in coverage from the north
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  81  70  89 /  80  40  10  30
Hutchinson      66  81  69  87 /  80  30   0  20
Newton          65  79  69  87 /  80  40  10  30
ElDorado        66  79  68  89 /  80  50  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  80  69  90 /  80  50  10  30
Russell         64  83  69  84 /  80  10  10  20
Great Bend      65  82  69  84 /  80  10   0  10
Salina          66  82  69  86 /  70  20  10  30
McPherson       66  81  69  86 /  80  30   0  30
Coffeyville     70  79  70  89 /  40  80  10  30
Chanute         69  77  69  88 /  50  70  20  40
Iola            69  77  68  88 /  50  60  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    70  77  69  88 /  50  70  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
409 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-252115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
409 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the high plains
in northwest Kansas this evening and tonight. Flash flooding and
damaging winds are the greatest threats. While isolated strong to
severe storms could develop anywhere across the area this afternoon,
the more likely scenario is for severe thunderstorms to develop in
central Kansas late this afternoon or early evening then move into
south central Kansas late this evening and overnight.

Large hail and a brief tornado are possible with any isolated
storms that occur early this evening along and west of a line from
Russell to Hutchinson to Wichita to Wellington. Once the storms
develop into a line, the threat for hail and tornadoes will
diminish, but the damaging wind threat will increase.

Check the latest flash flood watch for additional information on
the flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning, with lingering
flooding from the heavy rain on Saturday night and the threat of
strong storms in southeast Kansas during the day.

A better chance of severe storms is expected on Monday as a cold
front moves across the area during the afternoon and early evening.
the greatest threat will be roughly along and east of the Kansas
Turnpike.

Heat indices of 100-105 are forecast Monday afternoon roughly along
and south of Highway 400.

There may be additional chances for storms for Thursday through
Friday. However confidence is low when and where would occur. Check
later outlooks for updated information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for portions of central and south
central Kansas this evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton/Ketcham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
850 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

KSZ033-250230-
Lincoln KS-
850 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 930 PM CDT.

* At 849 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sylvan Grove, or 10 miles north
  of Wilson...moving northeast at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lincoln, Sylvan Grove, Beverly, Barnard and Ash Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3899 9793 3888 9848 3909 9848
      3922 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 236DEG 35KT 3898 9845

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
909 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             7 SSE DORRANCE          38.75N 98.54W
08/24/2019  E1.00 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            55 TO 70 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

0903 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S DORRANCE            38.74N 98.59W
08/24/2019  E70.00 MPH       RUSSELL            KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            55 TO 70 MPH WINDS. QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

BDK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
928 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             9 N CLAFLIN             38.65N 98.54W
08/24/2019  E1.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCATION ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
932 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TORNADO          8 N CLAFLIN             38.64N 98.54W
08/24/2019                   BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. TORNADO HAS LIFTED.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
942 PM CDT SAT AUG 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 NNE CLAFLIN           38.63N 98.48W
08/24/2019                   BARTON             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED JUST WEST OF THE BARTON/ELLSWORTH
            COUNTY LINE.

&&

BDK