Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

A frontal boundary is stretched across the region for much of the
short term.  Moisture transport for the overnight period is okay but
not great however, forcing and high PW more than makes up for it.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through afternoon
and into the overnight period.  There is the potential for some
isolated severe thunderstorm with this activity as well.  The main
threat appears to be damaging wind and very heavy rain with flash
flooding possible. The orientation of the frontal boundary tonight
indicates the risk for flash flooding is there.  As such, this
warrants the issuance of a Flash Flood Watch for the evening and
overnight period. Thursday, the frontal boundary will push a little
further south Thursday but is expected to stall around the KS/OK
state line Thursday afternoon.  The proximity of this frontal system
will keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for Thursday and Friday as well. Thursday night and Friday morning
look to have the best chance for a repeat of widespread showers and
thunderstorm.  Again, severe weather can't be ruled out with
damaging winds and heavy rain with possible flash flooding.  By
Saturday, the front will return as a warm front and push through the
region once again.  The moisture axis will re-establish itself over
the western half of the state and will follow the fronts progression
to the east.  This front and moisture axis will provided the needed
ingredients to get showers and thunderstorms going once again. Once
again, severe weather can't be ruled out but the main threat looks
to be damaging winds and very heavy rain.

With all the convective activity and the frontal boundary slipping
to the south of the region for the bulk of the short term,
temperatures are expected to slip below normal for Thursday through
Saturday.  Cloud cover and persistent chances for rain in the region
will help keep the temperatures down for the next few days.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

The extended range looks to remain fairly active to start at least.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday night and into Tuesday
morning.  However, this activity is expected to be restricted to the
Southeastern portions of the CWA as the front continues to move of
to the east.  Behind the front, southerly winds and WAA will
dominate.  This will allow some good clearing to occur and allow
temperatures to rise once again.  Temperatures are expected to get
approach normal levels for this time of year by Tuesday with above
normal temperatures again likely for the middle and end of the next
week.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Anticipating chances for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
gradually increase by this evening across the region, as a strong
and deep frontal zone oozes south across Mid-America. Included
VCTS in all TAFs to cover this threat, although anticipate later
shifts will eventually need to insert TEMPO +TSRA for many sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  82  68  83 /  50  50  50  30
Hutchinson      69  80  66  83 /  50  50  40  20
Newton          69  80  67  82 /  60  50  50  30
ElDorado        71  82  68  82 /  50  50  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   72  85  68  83 /  40  40  40  30
Russell         65  77  64  83 /  60  40  30  20
Great Bend      67  77  64  83 /  50  40  30  10
Salina          68  77  66  82 /  60  50  40  20
McPherson       67  78  65  82 /  60  50  40  20
Coffeyville     72  84  70  83 /  50  50  50  40
Chanute         71  82  68  82 /  50  60  60  50
Iola            71  81  68  81 /  60  60  60  50
Parsons-KPPF    72  82  69  82 /  50  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
morning for KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...ADK

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