Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Similar to yesterday, elevated convection continues to fester over
southeast Kansas this afternoon. Another surface outflow boundary
from the early morning convection has weakened across northern
Oklahoma. Pressure perturbation in its wake has resulted in
stronger southerly flow again, and should advect richer surface
moisture/dew points northward into southern Kansas during the
evening. Convective inhibition may weaken enough to allow for
a few storms to develop into far southern Kansas, though better
chances this evening across northwest/north central Oklahoma.
Any surface based convection will be capable of down-burst winds
and hail. Otherwise, perhaps deja vu again for late this evening
and overnight, with high Plains convection rolling east-southeast
across north central into eastern Kansas with mainly a strong to
damaging wind threat. Lingering elevated moisture transport on the
veered/waning low level jet Sunday morning should keep convection
going mainly along/east of the Kansas turnpike. A secondary weak
cold front is progged to drop south across Kansas and position
roughly along the turnpike corridor by late afternoon. This
should be the focus for late day and overnight convection into
Sunday night. The upper ridge will build in over the central
Plains on Monday with warming aloft likely squelching convective
potential or limiting to isolated activity. Dew points look to
also turn-up as well as the heat, resulting in heat indices at or
above 105 across southern Kansas. Tuesday looks even hotter with
the highest heat indices along and east of I-135. A heat advisory
will be considered with later forecasts.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Deeper troughing from eastern Canada across the Great Lakes from
Wednesday into Thursday will allow a decent cold front and cooler
air to advect south across the Midwest and portion of the Plains.
This will send temperatures back closer to seasonal climo with
modest precip/convective chances along the frontal boundary over
the area. Somewhat less confidence on the sensible weather late
in the week, though fairly seasonal with muted chances for
measurable precip.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Low confidence forecast. VFR is forecast at all sites except near
thunderstorms. Anticipating storms over northwest KS will reach
KRSL/KGBD around 0500 UTC with outflow boundary progressing
south/east during the night. How far east/south the storms evolve
is in question. At this point, KICT is the most questionable
and only went VCSH for now. Plan to amend TAFs later this
evening to included TEMPO TSRA when timing/location becomes more
certain. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  96  72  96 /  20  20  10   0
Hutchinson      70  95  69  96 /  20  10  10   0
Newton          70  94  70  94 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        71  94  72  94 /  30  30  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   74  95  73  96 /  30  20  20   0
Russell         67  90  65  95 /  40   0   0   0
Great Bend      68  92  66  96 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          69  92  68  94 /  40  20   0   0
McPherson       69  93  68  94 /  30  20  10   0
Coffeyville     75  93  75  94 /  30  30  30  10
Chanute         71  92  73  93 /  30  40  30  10
Iola            71  91  73  92 /  40  40  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  92  74  93 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
405 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182115-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
405 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the Flint Hills and
southeast Kansas through early this evening. The storms are not
expected to be severe.

Isolated storms are also possible across Kingman, Harper and Sumner
counties this evening. If so, these storms will be capable of
damaging down-burst winds and hail.

A better chance for thunderstorms will exist overnight a bit further
north across central Kansas, which may move into parts of southeast
Kansas toward dawn. The main threat will be damaging straight-line
winds to 70 mph and hail up to quarter size.

Locally heavy rainfall and minor lowland flooding is possible with
any storms this evening or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Chances for thunderstorms will continue on Sunday, mainly along and
east of the Kansas turnpike. Strong to severe storms will be
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and evening.

Heat indices will range from 100 to 104 degrees on Sunday afternoon
across south central and southeast Kansas.

Intense heat is anticipated during the afternoon hours on Monday and
Tuesday with heat indices from 100 to around 108. The highest heat
indices on Monday are expected across south central and southeast
Kansas and generally along and east of a Salina to Wichita line on
Tuesday.

Periodic chances for storms will return from Tuesday night through
Friday with the best chances on Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to
marginally severe storms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is a remote possibility this evening and tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/