Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

A fairly active short term is expected as a weak cold front is now
to the south of the region.  There is a mid level baroclinic zone
stretched across much of the region and will likely remain there for
much of the short term.  There will be some waves of energy that
will ripple across this mid level baroclinic zone.  The first of
these waves will occur tonight.  There will be some good moisture
transport into western Kansas this afternoon and into the overnight
hours.  This will provide a good environment for shower and
thunderstorm development.  Most of this activity is expected to
remain to the west of the CWA though.  As such, only parts of
Central Kansas are likely to see any thunderstorm activity this
afternoon and tonight.

The next wave is expected to move through the region late Wednesday
and through Thursday.  This is where the models start diverging
significantly. While all the models do indicate a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, the
short range models significantly disagree on the intensity and
rainfall amounts.  At this time, the NAM is the only model that
indicates a significant amount of rainfall for the region.  All the
models do agree the bulk of the rain is likely to occur during
Thursday afternoon and into Friday evening.  Severe weather chances
for this time frame are not that great.  Moisture transport is good
but not great.  Bulk shear is a rather paltry 30 kts for the most
part and is generally parallel to the baroclinic boundary.  This
orientation lends to a MCS type of convective activity.  The main
threats appear to be damaging winds and very heavy rain with the
strongest storms.  Hail can't be ruled out with quarter sized hail
with the strongest.

Temperatures for short term are expected to remain near normal for
this time of year.  Cloud cover from the convective debris will play
a major role in keeping the temperature down near or just below
normal through the short term.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

The extended range looks to remain fairly active as well. Friday
night and into Saturday another frontal system will be pushing into
the region.  The ECMWF and the GFS both have this front encroaching
on the region Friday afternoon and into Saturday.  The main
difference between the models is the speed in which the front moves
out.  Both have the front stalling over the region with the ECMWF
being a little quicker and is lighter on the rain amounts with the
rain ending by mid day Sunday.  The GFS is slower and tends to hold
the rain in the region a little longer.  Both models has strong
moisture transport for the region indicating a good chance
widespread heavy rain rain at some point during the weekend.
Temperatures during this time are expected to remain near normal as
there will likely be too much cloud cover to allow temperatures to
get above normal if at all.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Just like last few nights, main aviation concern will be overnight
storms.

Cluster of storms has been steadily moving southeast out of
northwest KS over the last few hours, and this trend looks to
continue. How far east this activity makes it will be the main
question. Shear will weaken a bit as they track south and east,
but feel most of this activity will be cold pool driven, with
plenty of instability to work with. For now will hit storms hard
at KRSl and KGBD and just run with VCTS at KHUT for now. As
progressive as this complex of storms is, they should be south of
all TAF sites by 07-08z. Damaging winds will be the main threat
will some hail also possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  88  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
Hutchinson      67  88  67  89 /  20  10  20  20
Newton          67  87  66  88 /  10  10  10  20
ElDorado        67  87  66  87 /   0  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   68  88  68  89 /  10   0  10  10
Russell         66  84  65  91 /  50  20  40  30
Great Bend      66  85  66  91 /  60  20  40  20
Salina          67  86  66  89 /  20  20  20  20
McPherson       67  86  66  89 /  10  10  20  20
Coffeyville     67  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         66  87  66  87 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            66  87  65  86 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    67  88  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...RBL

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