Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The main forecast highlight will be chances of thunderstorms this
afternoon through tonight, and the last few hours of excessive heat
in southeast Kansas late this afternoon. Otherwise, cooler
temperatures accompanying a dry pattern will persist throughout
the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Early this afternoon, water vapor and visible satellite imagery show
a MCV across southern Nebraska/northeast Kansas. A synoptic front
that has become mostly stationary during the day today stretches
from the Great Lakes region through central Missouri, and into
eastern Kansas before turning more southward through south central
Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Visible satellite
imagery depicts a band of clouds stretching from northeast
Kansas, across Saline, McPherson, Rice, and Reno counties and
extending southwest into Oklahoma, which appears to be a remnant
outflow boundary. As of 19z, some isolated convection has
initiated along this band in northwest Barber County. Over the
next several hours, convective development is likely to occur as
the cap erodes and CAPE continues to increase. Effective bulk wind
difference values are less than stellar for severe storm
development, but sufficient buoyancy, initiating boundaries as a
focus, and maximized residence time within surface-based effective
inflow layer air should be sufficient to produce a few strong to
severe storms. These will likely be focused along the main MCV in
far northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska/northwest Missouri, as
well as along the main synoptic front and outflow boundary. With
storms expected to congeal into clusters and line out, the primary
threat with these storms will be straight-line wind, with gusts
of around 60mph possible. However, severe hail will be possible in
initial, isolated development. The overall tornado threat appears
low within the forecast area, but mesoscale boundary interactions
that could create temporary windows of locally favorable
environmental conditions for tornado development will need to be
monitored. Additionally, forecast precipitable water values
(2.0-2.25 inches) well above climatology for the time of year
suggest that heavy rainfall will be a concern as well, as
thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rain makers. Localized
flooding will be possible, especially in the usual places and in
low-lying areas.

As thunderstorms push southeast overnight, a big cool-down is
expected behind the cold front as surface flow switches to blow out
of the north, allowing early morning low temperatures to drop into
the 60s in central and south central Kansas but remain a little
warmer in southeast Kansas given the timing of the convection and
frontal passage. Regardless, storms should be mostly clear of
southeast Kansas by mid-morning tomorrow allowing for clearing
skies across the entire area in the afternoon as a ridge builds
into the region. Afternoon highs will be much cooler than previous
days, reaching only into the low 80s area-wide on Monday. This
surface ridge is forecast to remain in place for quite some time,
so the remainder of the short term will remain precipitation-free
with mostly sunny skies and cooler than normal temperatures but
with a slight warming trend each day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

As the previous discussion stated, the remainder of the long term
forecast will remain quiet as a high pressure regime dominates the
central Plains for much of the rest of the week. The slight
warming trend should continue each day through the workweek, with
highs reaching back into the 90s next weekend. Little change was
made to the previous forecast other than the removal of slight
chance pops next weekend in favor of a drier scenario.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

Scattered thunderstorms will move southeast across portions of
south-central and southeast Kansas this evening, as a cold front
oozes south across the region. Included VCTS at ICT and CNU for
now, but amendments for TEMPO +TSRA and strong variable winds may
eventually be needed. Thinking activity will exit southeast
Kansas by 06-08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  62  83 /  60  10   0   0
Hutchinson      66  82  59  83 /  60  10   0   0
Newton          66  82  60  81 /  90  10   0   0
ElDorado        68  82  61  81 /  70  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   70  83  62  83 /  60  20   0   0
Russell         64  82  57  84 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      63  82  57  83 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          66  82  59  83 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       66  81  59  81 /  90  10   0   0
Coffeyville     72  84  63  83 /  70  30   0   0
Chanute         71  82  62  82 /  80  30   0   0
Iola            70  82  62  81 /  90  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    71  83  63  82 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAV
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
521 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

KSZ051>053-212245-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-
521 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Southern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Southwestern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 518 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Florence...moving southeast at
  15 mph.

Hail as large as nickels and winds around 50 mph are possible with
this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mcpherson, Lindsborg, Marion, Moundridge, Inman, Galva, Canton,
  Florence, Marquette, Windom, Cedar Point, Mcpherson Airport,
  Roxbury and Wonsevu.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch, number 537, remains in effect until
midnight CDT for south central, central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3861 9737 3822 9737 3821 9708 3836 9698
      3828 9664 3809 9676 3809 9687 3820 9707
      3821 9737 3817 9737 3817 9792 3861 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 296DEG 13KT 3825 9695

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 PM CDT SUN JUL 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSW CASSODAY          37.93N 96.69W
07/21/2019  E60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRONG WINDS TO 60MPH AND SOME TREE BRANCHES BROKEN

&&

TVAUGHAN