Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
317 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Forecast highlights: Severe weather threat this afternoon-
evening, more storm chances Thu-Sun, warm/hot and humid Thu-Sat.

Expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to impact mainly
southern half of the forecast area this afternoon-evening. The
culprits are a stalled frontal zone/outflow boundary across
central/southern KS, in concert with an MCV rotating across
central KS, and a subtle shortwave approaching from SW KS.
Instability and deep layer shear combination will support large
hail and damaging winds, along with locally very heavy rain and
pockets of flash flooding. Degree of low-level CAPE will also
support an isolated tornado threat, especially in vicinity of the
stalled frontal zone/outflow boundary across southern/central KS.
Merging cold pools should gradually support a transition to
linear/squall line mode as activity progresses into
southern/eastern KS during the evening and overnight hours, with a
continued damaging wind, heavy rain and possibly isolated tornado
threat given decent 0-3km shear.

Another possible scenario for thunderstorms will be activity
rolling east/southeast off the High Plains along/north of the
stalled frontal zone/outflow into southern KS toward midnight,
although activity may remain just south of the forecast area in
OK, especially if a big cold pool pushes the stalled frontal zone
south. Nevertheless, main threat will be damaging winds and
possible an isolated tornado threat, especially if activity
remains anchored along boundary.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Two to four more rounds of thunderstorms are possible Thursday
evening through Sunday night. While there remains some model
differences, consensus supports highest chances Thu and Fri
afternoon-evening generally northern KS. Chances look to expand
across the rest of the forecast area Saturday through Sunday
evening, as an unseasonably strong upper trough and associated
cold front approach from the west, interacting with a
moist/unstable airmass in place. Strong to severe storms along
with locally heavy rainfall and pockets of flash flooding are once
again possible.

Increasingly warm/hot and humid weather will prevail Thursday
through the weekend, but especially Fri when heat indices may
approach 100 degrees.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms to impact most if not
all terminals this afternoon, evening and tonight. Convection
currently is ongoing across central and north-central KS in
vicinity of RSL-GBD-SLN, with activity likely developing further
south as the afternoon progresses toward HUT-ICT, and toward
00-02z for CNU and adjacent southeast KS terminals. Pockets of
severe weather in the form of large hail, damaging winds, and
torrential rain is likely. Activity should end across central and
north-central KS by 00-03z, with activity ending along the
Turnpike corridor and southeast KS by 06-12z. In wake of the
storms later tonight into Wednesday morning, MVFR to possible IFR
ceilings are possible due to continued moist low-levels amidst
increasing cold air advection.

Kleinsasser

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  79  63  88 /  70  20   0   0
Hutchinson      63  78  62  88 /  70  20   0   0
Newton          63  77  62  87 /  70  20  10   0
ElDorado        64  77  61  86 /  70  30  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   66  80  63  88 /  70  30  10   0
Russell         61  77  62  89 /  40  10  10  20
Great Bend      61  78  63  89 /  40  10   0  10
Salina          63  77  61  89 /  70  30  10  20
McPherson       63  77  62  88 /  70  20  10  10
Coffeyville     66  81  63  88 /  70  40  10   0
Chanute         65  79  61  87 /  70  40  10   0
Iola            65  78  61  86 /  70  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    65  80  62  87 /  70  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
123 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
123 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, first over
central Kansas, then eventually across south-central and southeast
Kansas. At this time, the greatest risk of severe weather looks to
be focused along and south of a line from Hutchinson to Cassoday.
Across that area, large hail up to hen egg size, damaging winds of
60 to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible. North of that
line, wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph and hail up to half dollar size
will be possible.

In addition to the severe weather threat, flash flooding will be a
concern, especially areas that see repeated thunderstorms through
tonight.

Rivers and creeks remain high and may approach flood stage. Please
refer to the latest river statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered thunderstorms may continue across Southeast Kansas
on Wednesday. Strong or severe storms are not expected.

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible for all areas from Thursday
night through Sunday. The greatest severe thunderstorm potential
looks to affect the region on Saturday. Please watch for further
updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across much of the region for this
afternoon through the late evening hours.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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