Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
908 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A pronounced shortwave trough over New Mexico this afternoon (per
water vapor imagery), will propagate slowly eastward over the
southern Plains tonight into Sunday. A weak surface-850 mb cold
front, extending from southeast Nebraska to central and southwestern
Kansas, will sink slowly southward. By early Sunday evening, the
front should extend from central Missouri across southeast Kansas to
western Oklahoma. The front and approaching mid-level shortwave
trough will be potential trigger mechanisms for thunderstorms.
Initial isolated strong-severe storms could form by early this
evening along the front in central Kansas where the inhibition is
weakening. Storm activity should increase across northern
Oklahoma/southern Kansas later this evening/overnight, as moisture
transport develops/strengthens in response to a weak low-level jet,
coincident with very weak height falls aloft. Will taper rain
chances from 20/30% in central Kansas, to likely (60-70%) in the far
south tonight. MUCAPE of 2500-4000 j/kg, deep-layer shear of 25-35
knots, and strong downdraft CAPE of ~1500 j/kg will support isolated
occurrences of large hail, however damaging winds would be the most
probable severe threat with cold pool development likely. Localized
strips of heavy rainfall are also possible mainly in the south,
given higher precipitable water and slow Corfidi propagation
vectors.

Will maintain 20-30% thunderstorm chances in south-central and
southeast Kansas for Sunday-Sunday night, as the shortwave trough
continues its slow migration across Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

-Caruso

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

By Monday morning, the upper-level low will be located in the
vicinity of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, with the
stationary surface front stretching across far southeast Kansas,
extending both northeast-ward towards the St. Louis metro area and
southwest-ward towards Oklahoma City. During the morning commute,
lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible roughly
along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Instability parameters will
have decreased somewhat so showers/thunderstorms are not likely
to be severe by this time as they continue to weaken in intensity
as they track to the southeast. Models differ on the solution for
the remainder of the day on Monday from the afternoon-evening,
with the ECMWF and GFS suggesting weak 500mb ridging across
central Kansas in the wake of the exiting system (keeping the
forecast dry), while the NAM keeps this ridging slightly further
to the west. Thinking that this ridging will likely keep rain
chances in check for central Kansas for much of the day, so have
trended back pops here for this issuance, keeping in mind they may
need to be trimmed even further with later forecasts.

Overnight Monday night and through Wednesday morning, a series of
mid/upper shortwaves will usher in more chances for periodic showers
and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Although widespread
severe storms appear unlikely, a few storms could be strong during
this period. A break in the active pattern looks to come during the
day on Thursday when most of the area should remain dry before storm
chances increase once again by Friday evening and into Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the extended period will largely remain
below normal values, with highs in the low 80s Monday - Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to warm back up to near climatology during
the latter portion of the workweek, with temperatures reaching the
upper 80s or low 90s.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 908 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Scattered thunderstorms should gradually develop before midnight
south of Hutchinson to Hillsboro, and persist off-and-on through
the night, as a weak cool front oozes south. Pockets of severe
weather in the form of large hail, damaging winds, and locally
very heavy rainfall are likely. Threat should end by around
09-12z. Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible
across southern KS Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  83  64  83 /  60  30  20  20
Hutchinson      66  84  63  83 /  40  20  20  30
Newton          65  82  64  81 /  60  20  20  30
ElDorado        65  81  64  81 /  60  30  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   65  82  64  82 /  60  40  30  30
Russell         63  84  60  83 /  10  10  10  30
Great Bend      63  83  60  83 /  10  10  10  20
Salina          65  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  30
McPherson       65  84  62  82 /  30  20  10  30
Coffeyville     67  82  65  83 /  70  40  40  50
Chanute         67  82  64  82 /  60  40  30  40
Iola            67  82  64  82 /  60  30  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    67  82  65  83 /  70  40  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
442 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162145-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
442 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop tonight, mainly to the south of a Great Bend to Salina line.
The main storm threats will be wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph and
localized heavy rainfall and flooding. A more isolated threat for
large hail up to golfball size will exist through about sunset.

The Cow Creek near Hutchinson remains in flood and the Smoky Hill
River near Lindsborg will remain near flood. Please refer to the
latest river and flood statements for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few strong storms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds may
linger Sunday morning before diminishing. However, there will be a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorms redeveloping in
south-central and southeast Kansas Sunday afternoon and night.
Isolated strong to severe downburst wind gusts and locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threats, with the greater risk near the
Oklahoma border.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast from
Monday through Friday. Some of these storms will be strong to
marginally severe with locally heavy rainfall.

The Cow Creek near Hutchinson is forecast to remain in flood until
Sunday evening and near flood through Tuesday morning.  Smoky Hill
River near Lindsborg will also remain near flood through Tuesday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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