Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
703 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Mid/upper level low over New Mexico will move eastward across the
southern Plains late tonight through Thursday. The forecast area
will be situated within the northern portion of the pin-wheeling
low circulation characterized by rather weak flow. Diurnal
heating should result in moderate to perhaps strong instability
with little to no cap. While there should be a few early morning
showers and storms around, expect a diurnal uptick in coverage by
midday through the late afternoon. Environment will be conducive
to pulse-type storms with slow, perhaps chaotic movement with main
risk localized heavy rainfall and gusty down-burst winds.
Shower/isolated storm chances will linger into Thursday night and
mainly east of the turnpike on Friday, as the low moves eastward
into Arkansas. Saturday looks like a dry and seasonably warm day
with central Kansas situated in a relative col at mid-levels
between the departing low, northern Rockies trof, and ridges over
the Great Lakes and Rio Grande/Mexico. The aforementioned northern
Rockies upper trof will move eastward across the northern Plains
Saturday night with the associated surface cold front and storms
chances moving into central Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The upper trof will continue to move eastward across the Upper
Midwest on Sunday and deepen over the Great Lakes into Monday as
the main upper low/vortex deepens over Nunavut in north central
Canada. Much cooler air will advect south across the area in the
wake of the associated cold front later Sunday into early Monday.
Additional shortwaves will drop southeast in the developing
northwest flow with another upper trof amplifying across the Upper
Midwest/Mississippi Vally by mid-week. Overall, temperatures will
average below climo thru mid-week with a reinforcing front and
modest precip chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

Chances of scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the entire
TAF period at all sites.

Thunderstorms have formed in a SW to NE line from south and east
of KICT to near and just north of KCNU. Additional pulse
thunderstorms have impacted or have been in the vicinity of KICT
and KCNU. These storms have had rather slow chaotic storm motions.
Some of these storms could produce strong to severe winds and
hail.

Chances of scattered showers and thunderstorm activity will
continue overnight and through tomorrow, with increasing chances
of storms tomorrow afternoon. Aside from scattered thunderstorm
potential, expecting VFR conditions throughout the TAF period at
all sites except KCNU. Decent chances for MVFR ceilings tomorrow
morning at KCNU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  81  64  82 /  40  60  30  20
Hutchinson      65  81  63  82 /  40  60  30  10
Newton          65  81  63  80 /  40  60  30  20
ElDorado        65  81  64  80 /  40  60  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   65  80  64  81 /  50  70  50  20
Russell         63  82  61  83 /  40  60  20  10
Great Bend      63  81  61  82 /  40  60  20   0
Salina          66  84  63  83 /  40  60  20  10
McPherson       65  82  63  82 /  40  60  30  10
Coffeyville     67  82  66  82 /  40  60  60  30
Chanute         66  82  65  81 /  40  60  50  30
Iola            66  82  65  81 /  40  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  82  66  82 /  40  60  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-062045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
345 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible. Storms this evening
could contain small hail, wind gusts to 55 mph and locally heavy
downpours.

Water levels remain high on area rivers and creeks, though have
dropped below flood stage for now.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Some
of these storms in the afternoon could contain locally heavy
rainfall and gusty outflow winds to 55 mph.

Chances for thunderstorms will linger on Friday for locations
mainly east of the Kansas turnpike. A locally strong storm is
possible across southeast Kansas.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will be possible, mainly west of
the Kansas turnpike, Saturday night through Tuesday. While severe
storms are not anticipated, a few strong storms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
704 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ069-083-060030-
Butler KS-Sedgwick KS-
704 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 703 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Rose Hill...moving north at 15
  mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Derby, Mulvane, Rose Hill, Douglass and Mcconnell Air Force Base.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 9727 3762 9694 3748 9699 3748 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 184DEG 11KT 3749 9714

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
729 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ083-060130-
Sedgwick KS-
729 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 725 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over
  Haysville... moving north at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with the storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, Haysville, Mulvane, Goddard, Clearwater, Garden
  Plain, Downtown Wichita, Eastborough, Viola, West Wichita,
  Eisenhower National Airport, Mcconnell Air Force Base, South
  Wichita, Oaklawn and Lake Afton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 9771 3769 9726 3748 9725 3747 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 184DEG 11KT 3754 9738

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
800 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ069-060145-
Butler KS-
800 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 845 PM CDT.

* At 759 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from El Dorado
  to near Andover...and moving north at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Rose Hill, Towanda, Benton, El Dorado
  Airport, Santa Fe Lake, El Dorado Lake, El Dorado State Park and
  Augusta Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 9715 3802 9677 3778 9668 3759 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 201DEG 17KT 3781 9685 3767 9710

HOWERTON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
821 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

KSZ091-092-060215-
Harper KS-Sumner KS-
821 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 820 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Conway Springs to near Harper...and moving south at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Anthony, Harper, Conway Springs, Attica, Argonia,
  Mayfield, Milan, Danville, Freeport, Riverdale, Runnymede, Crystal
  Springs and Wellington Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 9829 3739 9819 3739 9781 3747 9781
      3747 9742 3730 9735 3704 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 359DEG 11KT 3743 9766 3725 9805

HOWERTON

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