Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Thunderstorms will remain a concern over the next few days, but
especially focused on today/tonight and again Tuesday/Wednesday.
The risk of thunderstorms may return again by next weekend. For
those with Memorial Day plains, it looks to be breezy, warm, and
mostly dry (for a change). For today and Tuesday, strong to severe
storms will be possible as well as flash flooding. For those
interested, please see the "Climate" section below for monthly
rainfall record information for Wichita.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Convection from last night/this morning laid out a well-defined
outflow boundary from SE KS/NE OK through southern MO. The 19z TOP
sounding shows much lower moisture quality in the wake of the
convection, indicative of quite a bit of overturning. The outflow
boundary has basically become an effective warm front/moisture
gradient that extends back to a surface low over SE CO. Meanwhile,
to the SW, water vapor imagery shows a well-defined s/w ejecting NE
out of the desert SW.

The large-scale forcing associated with that s/w is evidenced by
convection that has already begun to develop along the High Plains
from CO to WRN TX. Closer to home, a band of convection along the
outflow boundary has finally begun to weaken. With this boundary in
the area and continued moistening/daytime heating, cannot rule out a
few thunderstorms redeveloping later this afternoon. This potential
will be conditional on how quick low-level recovery can occur, which
would most likely be along and SW of the northward-advancing outflow
boundary/warm front. I kept some pops in this afternoon for this
potential. Should any storm develop along this boundary, the
shear/instability combo would support a strong/severe potential
(likely primarily a large hail/dmg wind threat).

Otherwise, the question is how does the High Plains convection
evolve. Recent radar trends haven't been overly impressive, but with
the s/w approaching, it does appear ongoing storms are intensifying
some. There also appears to be a fairly quick trend towards upscale
growth. With continued upscale growth expected, short term guidance
suggests one or two clusters/MCS' will propagate NE off the High
Plains, impacting at least part of our area. Forecast soundings show
some hodograph curvature, likely enhanced some by an increasing LLJ,
with stronger winds aloft compared to yesterday. Given the quicker
trend towards upscale growth, the primary threat may end up being
strong, damaging wind gusts. However, certainly cannot rule out some
large hail or a tornado with any discrete cell that may develop. A
brief tornado could also form with any embedded vorticity with
any MCS. With high PWat air in place, heavy rain/flash flooding
will continue to be a threat and the Flood Watch will continue
into Monday morning.

In the wake of tonight's convection, the area may once again start
out overturned on Monday with lingering low clouds and possibly
even a few thunderstorms. The dryline will likely remain back
across western Kansas. It should push east some during the day,
but there is no large scale forcing expected, making redevelopment
in the afternoon/evening much more conditional. Perhaps one or
two storms could develop where parcels can remain in the dryline
circulation longest. Given the shear/instability in place, a
severe threat could certainly exist with any storm, although this
may tend to be focused west of our local area.

On Tuesday, a stronger s/w will move across the Central Plains,
pushing the dryline further east. While model guidance differ on
where/how far south storms will initiate, the setup appears to be
favorable for initiation possibly as far south as the OK/KS border.
While there is still some uncertainty regarding initiation, the
shear/instability combo will be more than favorable for organized
convection, including supercells. The deep layer shear orientation
to the dryline looks to favor discrete or semi-discrete cells with
all hazards possible. Some significant severe potential may exist
given the forecast shear and instability, especially with more of a
discrete mode possible, so stay tuned as we refine the threat area.

Martin

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The upper level pattern looks to finally change from SW flow to more
of a zonal flow pattern. Initially, there may still be a threat of
thunderstorms over SE KS Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through
during peak heating. In the wake of that front, drier air looks
likely for Thursday. From Friday through the remainder of the
weekend, shortwaves embedded within the zonal flow may bring renewed
opportunities for showers/storms, some of which could be strong to
severe. Increasing moisture may, again, lead to a risk of heavy
rain/flooding.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be developing to the west
of the region and will slowly move across the region. VFR
conditions will start for this TAF period but MVFR and IFR
conditions will develop as the showers and thunderstorms move
through the region. Some of these thunderstorms could be severe
with very heavy rain. GBD and the RSL terminals have the best
chance for the severe weather while the HUT and ICT have a better
chance for the heavy rain. CNU has the least chance for both with
lighter showers and thunderstorms possible by dawn. VFR conditions
will return the region for the remainder of the TAF period.

Metzger

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

The threat of flooding continues. Through tonight, the highest
rainfall amounts look to be focused over south-central and central
Kansas. For this reason, we'll keep the Flash Flood Watch going in
that area. It is unclear how far east tonight's thunderstorms will
get. Given the potentially less favorable thermodynamic environment
over southeast Kansas, thinking the threat of heavier rainfall
will be lower there and I have opted to keep that area out of the
Flash Flood Watch for now. We'll continue to re-evaluate this
threat through tonight. It is possible a Flash Flood Watch will be
needed again for Tuesday/Wednesday for part of the area as a
better threat of thunderstorms is expected then. In general,
another 1-2" of rain is expected through Wednesday, with amounts
up to 3 or 4" not out of the question.

Martin

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2019

As rainfall amounts continue to stack up, monthly records are
becoming increasingly threatened.

For Wichita, the total rainfall for May currently stands at 11.96"
(as of Sunday morning). This makes it the 2nd wettest May on
record and tied for the 7th wettest month all-time. For May, the
record is 13.14" (set in 2008). All-time, the highest monthly
rainfall total is 14.43" (set in June 1923).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  82  69  80 /  90  50  20  40
Hutchinson      61  82  68  80 / 100  20  20  30
Newton          62  81  68  79 /  80  40  20  40
ElDorado        62  81  68  78 /  80  50  20  50
Winfield-KWLD   63  82  69  79 /  90  50  20  50
Russell         60  83  67  81 /  90  10  20  10
Great Bend      59  82  67  81 / 100  10  20  10
Salina          62  82  69  81 /  90  20  20  40
McPherson       61  82  68  80 / 100  20  20  40
Coffeyville     68  83  70  81 /  50  30  10  60
Chanute         63  83  69  80 /  60  60  10  60
Iola            64  82  69  79 /  50  60  10  60
Parsons-KPPF    67  83  70  81 /  60  40  10  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...ELM
HYDROLOGY...RM
CLIMATE...RM

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