River Flood Warning 233, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Today-Tonight:
Models show persist low level moisture and warm air advection
continuing into this evening over southern sections, especially to
the areas south/west of KICT. Some locally heavy rain is possible
across far south, but not expecting it to be widespread enough to
warrant a watch. To the north, mainly lighter showers are
anticipated. The extensive clouds and precipitation will keep
temperatures will below normal today. Given the forecast 850MB
moisture/warm air advection, will keep small chances going
south/west of KICT into this evening. Chances increase later in
the night as warm air advection increases and spreads over much fo
the area, with best chances along/west of Highway 14.

Friday:
The best lift/precipitation will spread into central KS on Friday
morning. The low level return flow will lead to a enough surface
warm air advection to nudge temperatures over 70 in far southern
sections.

Friday night-Saturday:
Another round of showers/storms are expected late Friday night
and Saturday in warm air advection ahead next cold front. This
cold front should traverse the area during the day on Saturday.
Temperatures will be a bit tricky with warm start and warm air
advection ahead of the front, and then clearing/downslope flow
partially offsetting the cold air advection behind the front.
-Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Some challenge on Sunday how fast/far south cold front will go,
leading to potential light precipitation from overrunning across
southern sections on Sunday. Was inclined to go dry, but opted
just to trim northern extent for now given model run to run
variability and upper trough axis still west of forecast area
Sunday morning. Otherwise medium range models show relatively dry
period, as west southwest to zonal upper flow prevails during the
period. Suspect initialization high temperatures are about 2-4
degree too cool on Tuesday-Wednesday given the westerly upper
flow. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

Overnight, steady showers and occasional thunder have persisted
across south central and southeast Kansas. This has mainly
affected KICT and KCNU, producing reduced visibilities and IFR
level clouds as well. Expect these showers and thunderstorms,
temporarily reduced visibilities, and low clouds to persist
throughout much of the morning. Rain chances will slowly wane by
mid- day or early this afternoon, at which point VFR flight
conditions should return to all area airports for the remainder of
the forecast period. Late tonight, there will be additional
chances of a shower or storm in central Kansas, but confidence in
aviation impacts is rather low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    59  53  68  64 /  80  30  20  30
Hutchinson      59  52  66  62 /  30  30  30  40
Newton          59  51  66  61 /  40  20  30  30
ElDorado        57  52  68  62 /  50  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   59  53  71  64 /  80  20  20  10
Russell         63  50  61  60 /   0  40  60  40
Great Bend      63  51  64  60 /  10  60  60  40
Salina          61  51  63  61 /   0  20  50  50
McPherson       59  52  65  61 /  10  30  40  40
Coffeyville     63  54  73  64 /  40  10  10   0
Chanute         59  52  68  62 /  40  10  10  10
Iola            60  52  67  61 /  30  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    62  53  71  63 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
500 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041000-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
500 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms, some with moderate to heavy rain are
forecast for much of today and could linger into this evening. The
area to the west and south of Wichita will likely get the most rain
during this period. Flooding of typical flood prone areas is
possible from the heaviest downpours.

Another round of storms is expected to develop after midnight, with
the bulk of the storms west of a line from Salina to Wichita to
Arkansas City.

No severe thunderstorms are expected today or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Shower and thunderstorms will linger Friday morning, mainly over
central Kansas. These are not expected to be strong or severe.

More showers and storms are expected to develop late Friday night,
and continue on Saturday. Strong to severe storms are possible
Saturday afternoon and early evening across south central and
southeast Kansas. The primary threat will be 50 to 60 mph winds and
small hail.

There is a small chance of storms Sunday afternoon in extreme
southeast Kansas. If any storms develop, they are not expected to
be strong or severe.

Another chance of storms returns to most of the area Wednesday
night. No organized severe weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Howerton

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