River Flood Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

A line of showers/storms will race northeast across the region this
morning, and should depart southeast Kansas by early afternoon. Some
clearing should take place across the region behind this line which
will boost daytime temperatures. Meanwhile super deep surface
cyclone will move towards central Kansas by early this evening and
crank up the south winds. Deep adiabatic mixing will tap into much
stronger winds aloft with extreme wind gusts up to 60 mph possible
late this afternoon, especially across south central Kansas. Re-
newed low topped convection will develop near closed upper low
center this afternoon over western Kansas and spread into central
Kansas. Combination of steep lapse rates, some weak elevated
instability, and strong forcing could yield a few strong to
marginally severe storms.

Surface low pressure will move northeast tonight with winds
switching to the west/northwest across Kansas. Winds will remain
gusty due to tight pressure gradient from coiled up surface low
center. A rain/snow mix could spread into central Kansas for late
tonight and linger into Thursday morning. Winds will remain strong
and gusty again on Thursday but from the northwest. A wind advisory
could be hoisted for locations southeast of the the high wind watch.

Daytime highs will be below normal on Friday as surface high
pressure with northerly winds prevail over the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Quiet weather conditions look to prevail this period with daytime
highs closer to normal for mid-March, as northwest flow aloft pushes
drier air into the region for the weekend. Upper level flow will
flatten out and become more zonal for early next week, with long
range models showing a upper level wave moving across the central
plains on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

Several aviation hazards today. Widespread rainfall and embedded
thunderstorms will quickly race northeast across the region this
morning, exiting the area to the northeast by about mid-morning.
Drier air moving in from the southwest will end the widespread
IFR/LIFR conditions by 14-16z as well. Attention then turns to the
expected very strong/gusty south to southwest winds late this
morning through the afternoon. Thinking periodic gusts exceeding
45-50 kts are likely areawide. Another aviation hazard is the
potential for scattered showers/thunderstorms developing by 19-20z
across mainly central and north-central KS, immediately ahead of
the ejecting storm system. Thunderstorm threat should end by early
to mid-evening. Tonight, MVFR to low VFR ceilings should
gradually spread southeast across the region, with continued
strong/gusty west to northwest winds tonight through Thursday,
although not as strong as today's winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

A very deep surface low pressure system will move towards central
Kansas by this evening. South winds will increase dramatically
across the entire area during the afternoon. This will raise the
grassland fire danger level into the extreme category for most of
central and southern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  38  45  29 / 100  20  20  10
Hutchinson      67  37  43  28 /  90  30  30  10
Newton          67  36  43  27 / 100  20  30  10
ElDorado        68  38  45  28 / 100  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  40  47  29 / 100  10  10  10
Russell         62  34  40  25 /  90  60  30  10
Great Bend      62  35  41  25 /  80  50  30  10
Salina          64  37  41  28 / 100  40  40  10
McPherson       66  36  42  27 /  90  30  40  10
Coffeyville     70  44  51  31 / 100  10  10  10
Chanute         67  42  49  30 / 100  10  10  10
Iola            66  42  48  30 / 100  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  42  50  31 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Thursday for
KSZ072-096-100.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Thursday
for KSZ052-053-068>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.

High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM CDT Thursday
for KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
741 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-141245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
741 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will move northeast
across the region this morning. Localized relatively minor flooding
is possible.

Several rivers and streams across the area are expected to reach
minor to moderate flood stage the next several days, especially
across portions of central, north-central and southeast Kansas.

Very strong and gusty south wind gusts will impact the region late
this morning through early evening. Some wind damage is expected to
power lines, roof shingles, tree limbs and light weight outdoor
objects.

The very strong and gusty winds will support the potential for
extreme grassland fire danger this afternoon. If a fire ignites
it will be very difficult to control and contain. While the ground
will be wet due to recent heavy rain, diminishing cloud cover and
partial clearing skies could dry the ground enough for grassfires to
ignite and spread quickly.

A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across
central and north-central Kansas. A few occurrences of damaging
winds and dime size hail are possible. An isolated brief tornado
cannot be ruled out as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong northwest winds are expected behind the departing low
pressure area for Thursday especially across central Kansas. Please
see the latest High Wind Warning for additional details.

Rain could change over to snow across central Kansas for Thursday
morning. Little to no accumulation expected.

Several rivers and streams across the area are expected to reach
minor to moderate flood stage the next several days, especially
across portions of central, north-central and southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed for a time this afternoon across portions of
central and north-central Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
737 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE ARKANSAS CITY      37.06N 97.03W
03/13/2019  M2.27 INCH       COWLEY             KS   MESONET

            24 HR TOTAL, COURTEST OF USGS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EL DORADO               37.82N 96.86W
03/13/2019  M1.68 INCH       BUTLER             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ELDK1,CITY WATER PLANT, 24 HR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW WINFIELD          37.23N 96.99W
03/13/2019  M1.78 INCH       COWLEY             KS   MESONET

            COURTESY OF USGS, 24 HR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLEARWATER              37.51N 97.50W
03/13/2019  M1.50 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   COCORAHS

            24 HR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE OXFORD            37.26N 97.12W
03/13/2019  M1.52 INCH       COWLEY             KS   COCORAHS

            24 HR TOTAL

0654 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WINFIELD                37.27N 96.97W
03/13/2019  M1.69 INCH       COWLEY             KS   ASOS

            24 HR TOTAL, ASOS WLD STROTHER FIELD AIRPORT

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW COYVILLE          37.70N 95.90W
03/13/2019  M1.64 INCH       WILSON             KS   MESONET

            24 HR TOTAL, COURTESY OF USGS

0619 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE BASSETT            37.90N 95.39W
03/13/2019  M2.23 INCH       ALLEN              KS   COCORAHS

            24 HR TOTAL

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CLIMAX                  37.72N 96.22W
03/13/2019  M1.67 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   MESONET

            24 HR TOTAL, COURTESY OF USGS

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE ARKANSAS CITY      37.06N 97.03W
03/13/2019  M1.87 INCH       COWLEY             KS   MESONET

            COURTESY OF USGS, 24 HR TOTAL

0610 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
03/13/2019  M2.08 INCH       COWLEY             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR TOTAL

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW IOLA              37.92N 95.42W
03/13/2019  M2.18 INCH       ALLEN              KS   MESONET

            COURTESY OF USGS, 24 HR TOTAL

&&

KBUTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
804 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     FLOOD            EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
03/13/2019                   SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTING ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER WATERMAN
            STREET NEAR THE VA HOSPITAL IN EAST WICHITA.

&&

KBUTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
826 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW ARKANSAS CITY     37.09N 97.05W
03/13/2019  M2.55 INCH       COWLEY             KS   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
836 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E IOLA                37.93N 95.39W
03/13/2019  M2.33 INCH       ALLEN              KS   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
839 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW ARKANSAS CITY     37.01N 97.06W
03/13/2019  M2.11 INCH       COWLEY             KS   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
840 AM CDT WED MAR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW ARKANSAS CITY     37.01N 97.06W
03/13/2019  M2.11 INCH       COWLEY             KS   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ADK