Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Main forecast challenge will be convective trends over the next
several hours. Storms are expected to develop along a weak surface
boundary late this afternoon or early evening. Regional 88Ds and
vis satellite show this boundary stretching from east of Goodland
to near Hastings Nebraska, which is a bit further north than
models originally projected. If this boundary ends up being the
main focus for storms, then storm chances would be delayed for our
forecast area. Corfidi vectors point south and southeast tonight,
so where storms initially develop will play a major role in how
much of our forecast area has a chance to be affected. Still feel
the north and northeast portion of our forecast area has a chance
tonight, especially if something can develop over south central
Nebraska or northwest KS. Another scenario would be for storms to
develop over northeast CO and move into central KS by around or
after midnight. Any storms that are able to affect the area
tonight would have a large hail and damaging wind threat.

Return flow will remain over the Southern and Central Plains on
Wed allowing for slightly above normal temps and muggy conditions.
There is good model agreement in lifting an upper impulse out of
the Central Rockies and across northern KS and southern Nebraska
Wed evening. Current thinking is that storms associated with this
feature will stay north of the forecast area. Upper ridging is
expected to increase Thu into Fri from the southern High Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. This will bring a trend of above
normal temps and continued moist low levels.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Strong upper ridging is expected to persist through the weekend
across the region which will finally allow for a prolonged drying
out period. This setup looks to continue at least into the start
of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

VFR is anticipated across the area this evening. There is a very
small chance that we could see the cluster of storms across
southern Nebraska propagate toward the area but confidence remains
too low to mention in area TAFs at this time. Breezy southeast
winds early this evening will diminish overnight before increasing
again during the day on Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
Hutchinson      68  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          69  92  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
ElDorado        70  91  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
Russell         65  95  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      67  94  71  96 /  20  10  10   0
Salina          67  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
McPherson       67  93  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
Coffeyville     70  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
Chanute         70  90  70  90 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            69  90  70  91 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  90  70  90 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260900-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
328 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few storms will be possible over central Kansas tonight. The
stronger storms will be capable of half dollar size hail and 60 mph
winds.

River levels will remain high with some rivers in flood across the
area. Please refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
the most up to date information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A very warm and humid stretch of weather is expected Friday through
at least Saturday. This will result in heat indices around 100
degrees each afternoon across much of the area.

River levels will remain high with some river flooding continuing
late into the week. Refer to the latest flood warnings and
statements for the most up to date information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight across parts of central
Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Lawson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             3 ESE LUCAS             39.04N 98.48W
06/25/2019  M1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

KSZ049-260415-
Saline KS-
1042 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT.

* At 1040 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Culver, or 10 miles northwest
  of Salina...moving southeast at 10 mph.

*Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Gypsum, Smolan, New Cambria, Kipp and Salina Airport.

LAT...LON 3896 9737 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738
      3891 9737 3869 9737 3874 9782 3896 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 297DEG 9KT 3893 9775

BUTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1107 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     HAIL             2 N NEW CAMBRIA         38.91N 97.51W
06/25/2019  M0.75 INCH       SALINE             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

KSZ049-051-052-260445-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-Saline KS-
1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Southeastern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 1145 PM CDT.

* At 1116 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Salina...moving east at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Assaria, Gypsum, Smolan, Kipp and Salina Airport.

LAT...LON 3882 9737 3861 9737 3861 9718 3848 9726
      3872 9778 3886 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 291DEG 31KT 3879 9755

BUTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S SYLVAN GROVE        38.98N 98.39W
06/25/2019  M2.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

KED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

KSZ049-051>053-069-070-260515-
Butler KS-McPherson KS-Greenwood KS-Marion KS-Chase KS-Saline KS-
1146 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Marion County in central Kansas...
  Chase County in east central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 1145 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Gypsum to 5 miles north of Marion to near Cottonwood Falls...and
  moving southeast at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Lindsborg, Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Cottonwood Falls,
  Galva, Canton, Strong City, Florence, Assaria, Gypsum, Burns,
  Smolan, Lincolnville, Ramona, Lehigh, Durham, Tampa and Falun.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 9737 3861 9737 3861 9693 3852 9693
      3852 9636 3817 9636 3817 9615 3800 9623
      3799 9682 3853 9780 3890 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 326DEG 33KT 3870 9751 3842 9705 3831 9651

BUTLER