Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
243 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along a weak frontal
boundary draped from the Mid Atlantic, west-southwestward through TN
and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The boundary lifted a bit
further north than previously thought, allowing more convection to
develop over our northwestern counties. As temps continue to rise and
more outflow boundaries develop, expected for coverage to increase
across our eastern areas through the remainder of the afternoon.
Given the instability in place, some storms may become strong and
produce gusty winds, along with locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorm activity should diminish around sunset, as we lose our
daytime heating and instability wanes. This will leave mostly quiet
conditions during the overnight hours. Skies will clear and winds
will become light, allowing temps to fall into the lower 70s. Given
dewpoints currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s, our dewpoint
depressions may drop into the 0 to 2 degree range during the predawn
hours on Friday. This would set the stage for patchy fog to develop,
however confidence is low given the trends the past couple of
mornings.

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

An upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS, with a ridge of
high pressure building into the Plains. This will keep weak mid and
upper level flow over the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the weak surface
boundary will remain in the vicinity of the TN Valley through the
short term period. This will leave the potential for scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. With the weak synoptic forcing
associated with the boundary, convective initiation will be
contingent on diurnal heating and how quickly we reach our convective
temperatures. Thus, the greatest chances will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours. With little shear in place, storms
will be unorganized but a few strong storms are possible.
Temperatures will be seasonal for this time of year, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

The mid/upper trough will amplify on Sunday, before flattening during
the early part of the next work week. At the surface, the boundary
will remain over the area through at least Monday, before it begins
to drop further south. With the enhanced lift aloft, a greater
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday, with a
lesser chance of storms on Monday. As has been the case, these will
be unorganized storms, but given the potential for ample instability,
a few strong storms are possible. The boundary will finally be clear
of the area on Tuesday, bringing an end to our rain chances by the
middle of next week. Again, temps will be seasonal next week, with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop over northern Alabama and
will increase in coverage over the next couple of hours. Although
there is a lower confidence on exact timing, there is enough
confidence to include a TEMPO group for TSRA at both the KMSL and
KHSV terminals this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that do pass through
the terminal will produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Most of
the activity will end by 00Z, but there may be a few lingering
thunderstorms this evening. With a greater coverage of rain today,
fog may be more prevalent Friday morning. However, will leave lower
visibilities out of the TAF for this issuance given the uncertainty.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...73
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...73

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
251 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-021100-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
251 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions of
southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible into the evening
hours, as a weak frontal boundary remains stalled in the vicinity of
the outlook area. Brief gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours
are possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Isolated to scattered storms remain possible each day through the
outlook period, especially during the afternoon and early evening
hours. The stronger storms will again be capable of brief heavy
downpours, small hail, and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
not anticipated at this time.

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