Wind Advisory 32, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
215 PM PDT Tue May 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over Southern California will provide
near normal temperatures and unsettled weather over the Southern
Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills this week. Increased chances
of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the higher
elevations, are expected into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A pretty stagnant pattern continues to remain in place over the
western CONUS. A rex type blocking pattern continues to slow down
the progression of systems through the atmosphere. This block is
created when you have an upper level low below (southward) of a
upper level ridge in the northern hemisphere. The upper level
ridge remains over the far eastern Pacific just off the west
coast. The upper level low is currently spinning over Arizona.
However, another upper low develops further west immediately south
of the ridging over the Pacific around 30N 130W and is related to
the weakness over the southwest from the low currently in Arizona.
This development will support the blocky pattern and allow it to
continue at least through the weekend. Keep in mind that guidance
we like to use has a horrible time with these blocky patterns.
Usually, the forecast timing is impacted the most. Models try to
be too progressive with things, because this is usually what
happens when there is no block present. This is why as we go out
in time, a system looking to move eastward in the guidance will
remain in place longer in the next model run. The good thing about
this pattern is that persistence forecasting usually is best,
however in the longer term the accuracy and confidence really
drops. Therefore, I will not spend time looking too far out and
will concentrate on the shorter term, in other words the next few
days.

With this in mind with the troughiness present over the region
well into the weekend, we look for continued cooling with
temperatures kept near normal, increase in clouds, and daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the higher
elevations. With the proper flow it would not be impossible for a
thunderstorm to form over the higher elevations and move into
valley areas. However, the best chances will be over the mountain
areas. With the lower pressure stationed inland there will be
daily marine intrusions in the overnight hours. These intrusions
can increase winds in the coastal pass areas and in the Kern
County mountain passes and desert areas. However, gusts do not
look to reach advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at MCE, MER, FAT, VIS, and BFL through
at least the next 24 hours. A few showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the southern Sierra Nevada through 04Z Wednesday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

public...Andersen
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...Andersen

weather.gov/hanford