Wind Advisory 24, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
331 PM PDT Mon Apr 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening low pressure system will bring cooler temperatures,
increased winds and a chance of light precipitation to the area
later tonight and Tuesday. Another system may bring some light
precipitation to the area on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The next in a series of storms that have crossed the region is
currently pushing through Northern California. Short range
models have this storm progged to drop south overnight. Visible
satellite along with precip-water imagery show the main band of
the storm north of Interstate 80 where locations have received up
to a third of an inch in the last 6 hours. Across Central
California, clouds dominated the day with temperatures showing
little change in the last 24 hours. Surface analysis has the cold
front still off-shore and expected to push through overnight.
Therefore, the area will remain in the warm sector today before
cooling starts on Tuesday. While the signature of the current
storm is a classic Atmospheric River (AR), moisture analysis has
this storm in the realm of a weak and brief AR over Central
California. With the storm progged to move through mainly
overnight from very early until near mid- day on Tuesday. This
trend will not favor Central California with a heavy precipitation
event, but the associated cold front will give the area strong
winds.

Model upper-air and surface analysis show the bulk of the energy
and associated cold front pushing through Central California near
12Z (5 AM PST) on Tuesday, respectively. Therefore, precipitation
will start over the area ahead of the cold front with model and
upper air observations showing decent moisture values. While not
the strongest AR, moisture values are high enough to produce
measurable precipitation across Central California. Again, while
not a significant precipitation producer, orographic effects will
enhance precipitation over the mountains with double or even
triple to values. Because frontal and jet dynamics will reside
over Central California during the midnight to 6 AM PST period,
this will be the time of best precipitation before the storm exits
during the day. Therefore, lingering showers and clouds over
exist over Central California before conditions clear out in the
late afternoon. Therefore, the precipitation window will exist for
around 6 hours, at which time, winds will then become a factor
over the region.

During the morning hours, cold maritime air will push into
California and producing a very tight temperature/pressure
gradient from KSFO to KLAS. By 5 PM PST, models show the pressure
gradient reaching levels up to 20mb. While strong winds have been
observed with gradients of about 10mb, 20mb is more indicative of
high winds over the favored locations around Kern County.
Therefore, will issue a High Wind Warning for Kern County and a
Wind Advisory for the hills to the West of the San Joaquin Valley
(most west of Interstate -5). While the gradient will begin to
relax after a few hours after sunset, the lag in the speeds will
allow the Warnings and Advisories to remain in effect until well
after midnight on Wednesday.

Weak ridging toward the middle of the week will provide a brief
dry period before yet another storm enters the region toward the
end of the week. While the end of the week storm is looking more
like an inside slider, the current trajectory still has it
affecting Central California. Therefore, the precipitation over
the region is not done as a continuation of showers will exist as
we approach the middle of the month. The pattern continues as
unsettled conditions is still be noticed going into the mid month
period of next Monday. While model confidence is decreasing with
next Monday's storm being a precipitation producer, will lean
toward unsettled for the day Seven period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered MVFR with local IFR in clouds over the mountain ridges.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected over the Central CA Interior
over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Warning from noon Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday
CAZ091-092-095-097>099.

Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Wednesday
CAZ089-091-092.

&&

public/synopsis...Molina
avn/fw...Bollenbacher

weather.gov/hanford