Tornado Warning 6, NWS Hanford, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
339 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system will bring rain and higher elevation
snow to the Sierra tonight with isolated to scattered showers
elsewhere. Dry weather is expected Thursday through the weekend
with a day to day warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong southwesterly flow aloft resides over the
central California interior today. An upper level disturbance
embedded in this flow brought precipitation into the CWA mainly
north of Kern county earlier today. This precipitation has since
moved out of the valley and into the Sierra and is falling as snow
at elevations generally above 7,000 feet. Meanwhile, a cold front
is currently approaching from the northwest and it will drag its
feet southward through the district early tonight with additional
showers. This front will be accompanied by thunderstorms early
this evening which can bring frequent lightning, small hail and
gusty winds. The northern part of this front has been particularly
active with very strong thunderstorms in the Sacramento Valley
this afternoon and this threat could extend as far south as Kings
and Tulare counties until the sun sets and the atmosphere
stabilizes this evening.

Otherwise, the cold front, or what's left of it, will end up over
Kern county by late tonight or Thursday morning, during which time
this front could generate a few showers. The primary focus of
precipitation with this storm system, however, will be in the
Sierra tonight where jet dynamics and orographic lift continue to
generate rain and higher elevation snow. Snow levels will
gradually lower over the Sierra tonight, bottoming out around
5,000 feet by daybreak. By then, precipitation over the Sierra
will have diminished to a few light showers or flurries.

In the broader picture, the parent storm is currently centered
a few hundred miles off the Oregon coast. The models forecast
this storm to track eastward across the northern part of the state
Thursday where it will bring additional showers. A few of these
showers could come as far south as Merced county and Mariposa
county Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, dry weather
can be expected over the CWA under a prevailing westerly flow
aloft. Additionally, low clouds will probably linger along the
west facing slopes of the Sierra for much of the day Thursday
while westerly winds blow rather briskly through and below the
Kern county mountain passes. Winds should remain below advisory
levels in this region. Temperatures will certainly be cooler over
the entire district Thursday, too.

Friday will pave the way to a weekend of beautiful, sunny weather
as an upper level ridge slowly builds in from the Pacific.  After
a seasonably cool day Friday, temperatures will warm back into the
70s in the San Joaquin Valley, lower foothills and the Kern county
desert Saturday and Sunday. Despite an increase in high clouds,
Monday should also be warmer than normal. Thermometer readings
could top 80 degrees in the warmest locations of the San Joaquin
Valley by then.

The extended models are completely polarized in the 5 to 7 day
period. The GFS brings a relatively weak, moisture starved trough
through the central California interior Monday night followed
by high amplitude ridging Tuesday through the middle of next week.
On the other hand, the ECM brings a deeper and slower moving
upper level trough into central California with a more promising
chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday evening, especially
over the Sierra. We're leaning toward the ECM solution at this
time, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR conditions can be expected over the
Sierra through 12z Thursday with improvement to VFR thereafter.
MVFR ceilings can be expected along the north facing slopes of
the Tehachapi mountains through at least 21z Thursday with areas
of MVFR in the Sierra foothills. Additionally, isolated
thunderstorms will occur mainly north of Fresno county until
03z Thursday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
remainder of the central California interior during the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday ABOVE 7000 FEET
FOR THE CAZ097.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE CAZ096.

&&

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Bentzien
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
246 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

CAZ089-090-272230-
East-Central San Joaquin Valley CA-West-
Central San Joaquin Valley CA-
246 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARIPOSA AND CENTRAL
MERCED COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM PDT...

At 244 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms in Merced county extending from Ballico to the San
Luis National Wildlife Refuge. The line was moving east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail, briefly heavy rain and strong, gusty winds are
possible with these thunderstorms.

Locations impacted include...
Merced, Atwater, Los Banos, Livingston, Delhi, Hilmar-Irwin, Winton,
Ballico and San Luis National Wildlife Refuge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 12085 3759 12051 3754 12033 3701 12072
      3709 12103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 246DEG 4KT 3729 12073

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
324 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SSW LIVINGSTON        37.30N 120.75W
03/27/2019                   MERCED             CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ABC/30 CALLED IN WITH A REPORT OF A FUNNEL
            CLOUD WEST OF MERCED ON HWY 140 AT 235 PM.
            NWS RECEIVED CLEAR PHOTO EVIDENCE. LOCATION
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
330 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

CAZ090-093-272315-
Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills CA-East-
Central San Joaquin Valley CA-
330 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MARIPOSA...
SOUTHWESTERN TUOLUMNE AND NORTH CENTRAL MERCED COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
PDT...

At 329 PM PDT, the public reported a funnel cloud associated with a
strong thunderstorm near Winton, or near Atwater, moving northeast
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merced, Atwater, Winton and Lake McClure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3754 12063 3763 12039 3766 12038 3760 12019
      3728 12052 3740 12069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 220DEG 16KT 3740 12055

JDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
431 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

CAZ090-093-280015-
Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills CA-East-
Central San Joaquin Valley CA-
431 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARIPOSA...
SOUTHWESTERN TUOLUMNE AND NORTHEASTERN MERCED COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
PDT...

At 430 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of La Grange, or 24 miles south of Sonora, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake McClure.

LAT...LON 3772 11995 3751 12027 3762 12042 3765 12037
      3769 12039 3765 12033 3766 12031 3773 12034
      3774 12028 3773 12026 3776 12024 3776 12020
      3780 12018 3778 12013 3782 12009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 222DEG 19KT 3763 12030

JDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
444 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

CAZ090-093-280015-
Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills CA-East-
Central San Joaquin Valley CA-
444 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARIPOSA...
SOUTHWESTERN TUOLUMNE AND NORTH CENTRAL MERCED COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
PDT...

At 443 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of La Grange, or 18 miles northeast of Atwater,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake McClure.

LAT...LON 3778 12014 3779 12011 3776 12004 3745 12035
      3754 12054 3759 12051 3764 12038 3769 12039
      3765 12033 3766 12031 3773 12034 3774 12028
      3773 12026 3776 12024 3776 12020 3780 12018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 211DEG 27KT 3756 12040

JDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
459 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

CAZ090-093-096-280045-
Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno County Foothills CA-East-
Central San Joaquin Valley CA-
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon CA-
459 PM PDT WED MAR 27 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MARIPOSA...SOUTHWESTERN
TUOLUMNE...SOUTHWESTERN MADERA AND NORTHEASTERN MERCED COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM PDT...

At 458 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles east of La Grange to 10 miles southwest
of Chowchilla. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Merced, Madera, Chowchilla, Madera Acres, Parkwood, Parksdale,
Bootjack, Bonadelle Ranchos-Madera Ranchos, Mariposa, Planada, Le
Grand, Catheys Valley and Lake McClure.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3693 11992 3692 12044 3768 12038 3765 12033
      3766 12031 3770 12032 3779 11998 3776 11994
      3776 11990 3779 11987 3781 11987 3782 11986
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 259DEG 18KT 3762 12033 3700 12038

JDB