Tornado Warning 40, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

017 
WWUS54 KHGX 182237
SVSHGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

TXC071-182246-
/O.EXP.KHGX.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-190918T2245Z/
Chambers TX-
537 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 545 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm. The storm could 
also restrengthen with little warning, producing a funnel cloud or 
potentially even a landspout on its leading edge.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
League City.

LAT...LON 2974 9467 2981 9491 2983 9491 2983 9492
      2988 9491 2988 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 273DEG 17KT 2984 9478 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM CDT THURSDAY...
...FLOODING IMPACTS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR AREAS EAST OF I-45...

.DISCUSSION...

Remnants of Tropical Depression Imelda should continue to wobble
between Conroe and Livingston with a slow track to the north
tonight into Thursday. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding impacts
will still be possible tonight into Thursday morning. Flash flood
watch may need to be extended in time depending upon the extent of
flooding impacts over the watch area.

In the near term this evening, we are watching an area that has
cleared out on visible satellite imagery from Wharton to League
City that could see enhanced convergence and an axis of
instability for storms to develop. We are already seeing scattered
activity in this axis of instability and clearing with day time
heating. There certainly could be some brief heavy rainfall that
could lead to street flooding and rises on area creeks/bayous. Hi
res model guidance has a lot of this activity ending before 03Z
this evening. We will need to watch to see if any more robust band
can form which could lead to training of storms and increase the
threat for more significant flooding impacts.

Overall model guidance continues a signal for the highest rainfall
totals and potential for higher rainfall rates over east Texas.
This includes areas east of a Houston to Huntsville line along
I-45 particularly Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto and Polk
counties. We cannot rule out eastern Montgomery and eastern Harris
county from flooding impacts as well. There will be a tight
gradient in rainfall amounts from 6 to 10 inches on the high end
to as little as 1 to 3 inches to the west. We caution the use of
some hi res guidance, especially cherry picking a particular run
for rainfall forecasting. Trends in the RAP and HRRR will need to
be watched and use a time lagged ensemble approach to get a better
understanding of the trends in these models. Case in point, the
18Z HRRR from 12Z Thursday to 18Z Thursday raises some eye brows
but again just one model run. It will be interesting to see future
trends in the model before looking to impacts. That said, we know
how tropical systems can re-develop convection overnight into the
morning hours so we have to be careful.

Should the rainfall we are forecasting occur in the locations
outlined above, we could see flooding on Long King Creek, Menard
Creek, Peach Creek and East fork of San Jacinto. These basins will
be a little more fast responding than the Trinity and perhaps the
west fork of the San Jacinto. Farther south there is still
flooding on Clear Creek and Dickinson Bayou so any additional
rainfall will prolong flooding there or cause secondary rises.
Houston Bayou system will be watched but with there being a large
gradient in rainfall so far, most areas can still handle
additional rainfall. Rainfall rates will be a big component in
flooding impacts tonight into Thursday for these areas.

Overpeck

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  74  89  74  90  73 /  50  70  50  50  10
Houston (IAH)          77  85  77  87  76 /  80  90  40  50  10
Galveston (GLS)        81  85  81  87  81 /  80  90  30  50  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
     Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Fort
     Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland
     Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
     Harris...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
     Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
     NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from
     20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...Overpeck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

TXZ163-176-195>198-210>212-235-335-191045-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Coastal Jackson-Colorado-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Jackson-Madison-Waller-Washington-
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Brief heavy rain may be possible through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Brief heavy rain may develop Thursday into Thursday night shifting
north with time. Otherwise no hazardous weather is expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-213-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-436-
437-191045-
Brazoria Islands-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-
Coastal Harris-Coastal Matagorda-Fort Bend-Inland Brazoria-
Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Matagorda-Matagorda Islands-
Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-
Trinity-Walker-Wharton-
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Flash flood watch in effect. Strong thunderstorms with heavy
downpours are likely today through tonight. Rainfall rates of 2 to
4 inches per hour will accompany the storms and flooding will be
possible after yesterday's storms got the ground wet or saturated
in some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
The threat of heavy rain will be possible Thursday and possibly
into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GMZ335-TXZ214-438-191045-
Chambers-Galveston Bay-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Flash flood watch in effect. Strong thunderstorms with heavy
downpours are likely today through tonight. Rainfall rates of 2 to
4 inches per hour will accompany the storms and flooding will be
possible after yesterday's storms got the ground wet or saturated
in some areas. Strong thunderstorms may be capable of waterspouts
and even brief tornadoes today. Strong gusty winds in excess of 40
knots may accompany some of the strongest storms.

Strong rip currents will continue today. Elevated tide levels
will leading to beach flooding near times of high tide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
The threat of heavy rain will be possible Thursday and possibly
into Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GMZ330-350-355-370-375-191045-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
543 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Elevated tides and currents will prevail. Waterspouts will be
possible this morning throughout the afternoon in the stronger
storms that will be focused over the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Elevated tide levels and stronger currents can be expected through
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Marine spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 NE GALVESTON          29.31N 94.79W
09/18/2019                   GALVESTON          TX   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING, WATER OVER ROADS AND
            SIDEWALKS ALONG THE STRAND. OBSERVED VIA
            GALVESTON WEBCAMS.

&&

TJC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
502 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

TXZ226-236-182245-
Inland Matagorda TX-Wharton TX-
502 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHARTON AND NORTHWESTERN
MATAGORDA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of El Campo, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Louise and Danevang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2918 9656 2934 9641 2930 9598 2897 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 272DEG 18KT 2923 9640

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
521 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

TXZ213-214-313-182300-
Chambers TX-Coastal Harris TX-Inland Harris TX-
521 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorm Near the Houston Ship Channel...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Deer Park, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Though
unlikely, storms of this type can produce landspouts, which are
tornado-like features on their leading edge. This can occur with
little to no warning, and can cause minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Pasadena, Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park, northern Seabrook,
Beach City, Cloverleaf, Channelview, Shoreacres, Morgan's Point,
Houston Ship Channel and San Jacinto State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2967 9520 2980 9517 2973 9479 2950 9487
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 285DEG 13KT 2970 9511