Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...
This first round of afternoon convection, with numerous northern
county discrete storm cells merging and forming larger storm
clusters, expecting to subside as we head towards the sunset hour.
After a few hour early evening break, the forecast calls for the
northern Texas developing line of convection (northwest of the DFW
metroplex at this hour) to sag southward and impact our CWA from
around 01-03Z (northern forecast area) through around 09-10Z
(southern CWA and points offshore). Thus, anticipating either
scattered clusters of storms or more of an organized QLCS moving
across the CWA this evening into early Monday morning. The main
threat modes with this overnight line will be damaging winds with
the  secondary threat that of flash flooding. As the base of the
upper trough comes through tomorrow, there could be redevelopment
focused across the eastern and near coastal CWA. Focus for Monday's
activity could be along old outflow left over from tonight's storms
but we could also witness re-development along the far southwestern
extension of a lower level convergent line tied to a LA-MS-AR line
of thunderstorms. 31

&&

.LONG TERM...
The short wave that brought SE TX rain on Monday will be moving
east of the region Monday night. Residual showers are expected
Monday evening before ending between 03-06z. PW values remain
relatively high on Tuesday rising to between 1.90 and 2.10 inches
by 21z. Convective temperatures remain in the upper 80's to lower
90's so feel daytime heating will be the catalyst for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. PW values fall to around 1.60 inches
Tuesday night as upper level ridging builds into South Texas. 850
temperatures warm Wednesday and Thursday but 500 mb heights only
build to around 590 dm. Will maintain high temperatures both days
in the middle 90's. Subsidence from the ridge and some drying in
the mid levels should allow rain chances to remain low. A
southwest flow will develop Friday night into Saturday as a weak
upper level trough moves into the inter-mountain west. A series of
weak short waves embedded in the sw flow will move across the
region next weekend and bring a chance of showers and storms back
to the area. 43

&&

.MARINE...
Large scale background winds will weaken but the threat of an
approaching and passing line of late night into early morning
thunderstorms across the local waters heightens the threat for
mariner situational awareness after sunset this evening. Boaters and
all marine interests need to be aware of a potential overnight
occurrence of storms. Winds and seas in or around thunderstorms will
quickly pick up...greater than 30 knot wind gusts with an agitated
sea state.

Scattered showers can be expected each morning from Tuesday morning
onward. Surface high pressure over Central Texas will maintain a sub-
Caution level onshore flow...3 to 4 foot significant sea heights.
Mid through late week lowering western Texas pressure will tighten
the onshore pressure gradient enough to produce Advisory level
sustained southerlies early Thursday through early Friday. Seas will
lift to average 5 to 6 foot heights. The mention of coastal run up
leading to minor low lying coastal flooding and stronger rips along
the upper Texas coast will again be within the late work week marine
products. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  91  75  93  76 /  70  50  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              76  91  76  93  78 /  80  60  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  88  81  89  82 /  70  70  30  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for the following
     zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
     Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
502 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ211-212-227-162230-
Waller TX-Fort Bend TX-Austin TX-
502 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Beasley, or 9 miles southwest of Rosenberg, moving north at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Western Rosenberg, Fulshear, Simonton, Beasley, Orchard and Weston
Lakes.

LAT...LON 2942 9585 2945 9596 2976 9611 2968 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 185DEG 27KT 2949 9593

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
515 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ199-200-213-162300-
Northern Liberty TX-Inland Harris TX-Montgomery TX-
515 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kingwood, moving north at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingwood, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Plum
Grove, Kenefick, Dayton Lakes, Lake Houston, northeastern Atascocita
and Moss Hill.

LAT...LON 3000 9500 3002 9524 3034 9515 3025 9470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 200DEG 12KT 3008 9510