Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
724 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.AVIATION...
There is still quite a bit of activity across SE TX this evening
and this is expected to continue for a couple of more hours. The
loss of daytime heating/rain cooled air will help to reduce TSRA
development after sunset. Did not make a lot of changes from the
previous TAFs with MVFR CIGS likely tonight. Will also keep VCSH
and VCTS in for tomorrow afternoon. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019/

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have erupted across the
area this afternoon. While most of the area has seen half an inch
of rain or less, several storms have dropped an inch or more, and
a couple storms on the north and south ends of the Houston metro
have produced significantly more rain - to above 4 inches in
Kingwood - and caused flooding issues. This is just the beginning
of a wet week, and while today's flooding issues are relatively
isolated, any rain will wet the soils in advance of multiple wet
days as cold front stalls out over Southeast Texas. River flooding
will be the primary threat with the prolonged period of rain, but
flash flooding is also a concern, particularly as the ground
becomes more saturated through the week. All in all, over the next
week, look for a widespread 5-8 inches of rainfall with isolated
spots of 9-12 inches.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Flash flood warnings are in effect both on the north and south
ends of the Houston metro thanks to two persistent clusters of
thunderstorms. A gauge in Kingwood has already registered 4.68
inches of rain today, and radar estimates in isolated spots are as
high as 6-7 inches. Did consider beginning a flash flood watch
today, but given the isolated nature of the flooding concerns
today and likely tomorrow, will probably hold off until we come
closer to the stalled front expected.

These storms are slow moving and efficient rainmakers as they sit
in what appears to be a weak warm front/coastal trough as it
drifts slowly inland. We should see rain begin to taper off this
evening as we lose solar heating, but may not disappear entirely
in the vicinity of this boundary overnight.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday and Wednesday Night]...

This front, perhaps reinforced by outflow from today's storms,
will provide a potential focus for more rain tomorrow. So, in a
bit of a last minute change in coordination with WPC, have gone
ahead and made Wednesday a bit wetter. The main action still looks
to be along a cold front as it drops through North Texas towards
our area. Storms along this front have a higher potential of
becoming severe, though a complicating factor may be if showers
and storms start up in our area from mesoscale factors before all
the synoptic features come into line.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

On Thursday, look for the front to stall. As it sits parallel
underneath southwest flow aloft, look for multiple compact vort
maxes to shoot over the stalled frontal zone, beginning Thursday.
Friday looks to be about as wet, if not wetter, though precise
timing is going to depend on hard to predict shortwave troughs, so
there is continued uncertainty in timing for this extended portion
of the forecast.

Waves of rain will carry into the weekend, before starting to wind
down - perhaps only briefly - at the start of next week. From
there, there's a pretty significant breakdown in model agreement.
The Euro successfully pushes the band of rain offshore, giving us
a respite through the first half of next week. The GFS is much
more awful to us, keeping rain continuing near the coast right
into next week. With bigger fish to fry right now, will leave some
time to obtain more clarity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  82  71  83  60 /  30  70  50  60  80
Houston (IAH)              73  83  73  86  68 /  30  60  50  70  80
Galveston (GLS)            76  80  76  82  74 /  30  40  30  50  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
     to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-081115-
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-
San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
613 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the coast and Gulf
waters before spreading inland, mostly along and west of I-45 by
the early afternoon hours, and then better concentrating over our
northern zones by this evening. Locally heavy rainfall, damaging
wind and hail will be the main weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong storms are possible Wednesday into Thursday as another
upper level disturbance moves across the region. This feature can
also produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, and some of the
storms could produce heavy rain and localized flooding. Damaging
winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

Another upper level disturbance coupled with an approaching cold
front will set the stage for additional strong thunderstorms on
Friday into the weekend. The cold front will stall over Southeast
Texas Friday and Saturday. A series of upper level disturbances
coupled with the front and abundant moisture will create a
favorable environment for heavy rain both days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today. Emergency managers
should prepare for activation at various times during the
upcoming week.

TXZ436>438-081115-
Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Matagorda Islands-
613 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, and could
produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Slightly elevated water levels will approach 3.5 feet by
Wednesday morning. Coastal run-up will be possible, potentially
impacting vulnerable locations such as Highway 87 and 124. Strong
rip currents will also be possible along Gulf facing beaches.

A series of upper level disturbances will bring periods of showers
and thunderstorms to the area during the upcoming week. Some
storms could be strong with gusty winds, hail and periods of
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today. Emergency managers
should prepare for activation at various times during the
upcoming week.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-081115-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
613 AM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, and could
produce heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A series of upper level disturbances will bring periods of showers
and thunderstorms to the area during the upcoming week. Some
storms could be strong with gusty winds, hail and periods of
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW GREATWOOD VILLAGE 29.56N  95.71W
05/07/2019                   FORT BEND          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODED CARS HIGHWAY 59 @ WILLIAMS TRACE

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900099

47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
606 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ROSENBERG               29.55N  95.79W
05/07/2019                   FORT BEND          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900100

47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RICHMOND                29.58N  95.77W
05/07/2019                   FORT BEND          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STREETS FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900101

47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MEYERLAND               29.68N  95.47W
05/07/2019                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING. SOME IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900102

47

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SUGAR LAND              29.62N  95.62W
05/07/2019                   FORT BEND          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900104

47