Wind Advisory 8, NWS Honolulu, HI

996 
WWHW70 PHFO 081713
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
713 AM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

HIZ028-090500-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-190209T0400Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.HW.W.0002.190208T1713Z-190209T0400Z/
/O.NEW.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190209T1600Z-190212T0400Z/
Big Island Summits-
713 AM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING... 
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until 6 PM HST this evening. A High
Wind Watch has also been issued. This High Wind Watch is in
effect from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon. The Wind
Advisory is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West 40 to 60 mph with localized gusts to 70 mph for the
  Big Island summits. Hazardous warning level winds in excess of 
  60 mph, with gusts in excess of 70 mph, are likely again 
  Saturday through Monday.

* TIMING...Through 6 PM this evening. Much stronger winds are 
  expected to develop late tonight and Saturday, with winds 
  increasing to warning levels.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means that winds at the summits are expected 
to be at least 56 mph with gusts over 66 mph. Travel to the 
summit areas should be delayed until winds subside.

A High Wind Watch for the summits means there is the potential 
for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 56 
mph or gusts of 66 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor 
the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

HIZ001>021-090500-
/O.CON.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.190209T0000Z-190209T1600Z/
Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-
Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Leeward-Lanai Makai-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-
713 AM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM HST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with localized gusts to 50 mph for
  Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and Maui. Winds
  will be strongest over and downwind of higher terrain, through
  valleys, and in areas near the coast.

* TIMING...2 PM this afternoon through 6 AM Saturday. Winds may
  drop below advisory levels Saturday before increasing again
  Saturday night into Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can bring down tree branches and 
  cause local power outages. These strong winds can cause car 
  doors to slam and make driving difficult, particularly for 
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph, or
gusts of at least 50 mph, are expected. Motorists should use
extra caution.

&&

$$
R Ballard

472 
WWHW70 PHFO 090126
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
326 PM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

HIZ028-091430-
/O.EXT.PHFO.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190211T0400Z/
/O.EXT.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190211T0400Z-190212T0400Z/
Big Island Summits-
326 PM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West increasing to 50 mph with gusts to 75 mph tonight
  at the highest elevations. Winds increasing to 75 to 85 mph over
  the weekend with gusts of 100 to 115 mph. Sustained winds over
  56 mph, or gusts over 66 mph, are still possible at the summits
  Sunday night and Monday.

* TIMING...Through at least 6 PM Sunday. 

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking
  extremely dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning for the summits means that winds are expected
to be at least 56 mph with gusts over 66 mph. Travel to the 
summit areas should be delayed until winds subside.

A High Wind Watch for the summits means there is the potential
for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least
56 mph or gusts of 66 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

HIZ023>027-091430-
/O.EXB.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.190209T0400Z-190210T0400Z/
/O.EXB.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
Kona-South Big Island-Big Island North and East-Kohala-
Big Island Interior-
326 PM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 PM HST Saturday. A High Wind
Watch has also been issued. This High Wind Watch is in effect
from Saturday evening through late Sunday night.

* WINDS...Localized north to northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts
  over 50 mph in exposed areas, over higher terrain, and where
  winds blow downslope. Sustained winds over 40 mph, or gusts over
  58 mph, are possible over some lower elevation areas on the Big
  Island Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday night.

* TIMING...Through 6 PM Sunday. 

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving hazardous, can
  cause minor localized damage, and result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58
mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts, secure loose objects, and prepare for the possibility
of power outages.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph, or
gusts of at least 50 mph, are expected. Motorists should use
extra caution.

&&

$$

HIZ022-091430-
/O.EXB.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.190209T0400Z-190209T1600Z/
/O.EXB.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190209T1600Z-190211T1600Z/
Haleakala Summit-
326 PM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM HST Saturday. A High Wind
Watch has also been issued. This High Wind Watch is in effect
from Saturday morning through late Sunday night.

* WINDS...West increasing to 20 to 45 mph with gusts over 50 mph.
  West 35 to 55 mph with gusts over 70 mph are possible over the 
  weekend into Sunday night.

* TIMING...Through 6 PM this evening. Stronger winds are expected
  to develop late tonight and Saturday, with winds increasing to 
  warning levels.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking 
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch for the summits means there is the potential
for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least
56 mph or gusts of 66 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

A Wind Advisory for the summits means that sustained winds of at 
least 45 mph, or gusts of at least 55 mph, are expected. 
Motorists should use extra caution.

&&

$$

HIZ001>021-091430-
/O.EXB.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
/O.EXT.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190210T0400Z/
Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-
Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Leeward-Lanai Makai-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-
326 PM HST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from Saturday evening through late
Sunday night.

* WINDS...Northwest increasing to 20 to 35 mph in some areas, with
  localized gusts over 50 mph developing late tonight and 
  Saturday. Sustained west winds over 40 mph with gusts over 60 
  mph are possible in some areas Saturday night, Sunday, and 
  Sunday night. Winds will be strongest over and downslope from 
  higher terrain.

* TIMING...Advisory level winds through at least 6 PM Saturday, 
  possibly getting stronger after that.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving hazardous, can
  cause minor localized damage, and result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous 
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of 58
mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest 
forecasts, secure loose objects, and prepare for the possibility 
of power outages.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph, or
gusts of at least 50 mph, are expected. Motorists should use extra
caution. 

&&

$$
R Ballard

113 
WWHW70 PHFO 091415
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
415 AM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

HIZ028-100400-
/O.CAN.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190211T0400Z-190212T0400Z/
/O.EXT.PHFO.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T0400Z/
Big Island Summits-
415 AM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY...

* WINDS...For the Big Island summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa, 
  west winds 45 to 65 mph this morning, increasing to 60 to 80 mph
  this afternoon, then increasing to 80 to 100 mph tonight. Even 
  stronger west winds are expected Sunday and Sunday night, with 
  speeds reaching 90 to 120 mph with higher gusts. Winds will 
  begin to decrease on Monday but are expected to remain at 
  warning levels. 

* TIMING...Through 6 PM Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking
  extremely dangerous. Travel to the summits should be delayed
  until the high winds subside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning for the summits means that winds are expected
to be at least 56 mph with gusts over 66 mph. Travel to the
summit areas should be delayed until winds subside.

&&

$$

HIZ022-100400-
/O.EXT.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190210T0400Z/
/O.EXT.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
Haleakala Summit-
415 AM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...For the Haleakala summit, west winds increasing to 35 to
  45 mph with higher gusts by late this afternoon. Even stronger 
  west winds are expected tonight through Sunday night, with 
  speeds increasing to 45 to 65 mph with higher gusts.

* TIMING...A Wind Advisory through 6 PM this evening. A High Wind
  Watch from 6 PM this evening until 6 AM Monday as even stronger
  west winds are expected to develop.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking 
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch for the summits means there is the potential
for a hazardous high wind event. Sustained winds of at least
56 mph or gusts of 66 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts.

A Wind Advisory for the summits means that sustained winds of at
least 45 mph, or gusts of at least 55 mph, are expected.
Motorists should use extra caution.

&&

$$

HIZ001>021-023>027-100400-
/O.CON.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190210T0400Z/
/O.CON.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-
Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Leeward-Lanai Makai-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-Kona-South Big Island-
Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
415 AM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...North to northwest winds 20 to 30 mph, with localized
  gusts up to 50 mph. Winds are expected to decrease slightly this
  afternoon, then become much stronger out of the west tonight
  through Sunday night, with speeds of 20 to 40 mph and localized
  gusts up to 60 mph. Winds will be strongest over and downslope
  from higher terrain, and where most efficiently funneled around
  the terrain and through valleys.

* TIMING...A Wind Advisory through 6 PM this evening. A High Wind
  Watch from 6 PM this evening until 6 AM Monday as even stronger
  west winds are expected to develop.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving hazardous, can
  cause minor structural damage to poorly built structures, and
  result in power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts, secure loose objects, and prepare for the possibility
of power outages.

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of at least 30 mph, or
gusts of at least 50 mph, are expected. Motorists should use
extra caution.

&&

$$

459 
WWHW70 PHFO 100132
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 PM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

HIZ001>021-023>027-101445-
/O.CAN.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190210T0400Z/
/O.UPG.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
/O.EXB.PHFO.HW.W.0002.190210T1400Z-190211T1000Z/
Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-
Oahu South Shore-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-
Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Molokai Windward-
Molokai Leeward-Lanai Makai-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Leeward Haleakala-Kona-South Big Island-
Big Island North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior-
332 PM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT HST
SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Wind 
Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM Sunday to midnight HST 
Sunday night. 

* WINDS...West 20 to 40 mph with localized gusts to 60 mph. Winds
  will be strongest over and downslope from higher terrain, and
  where most efficiently funneled around the terrain and through
  valleys.

* TIMING...From 4 AM HST Sunday till midnight HST Sunday night.
  The strongest winds are expected during the daytime Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving hazardous, cause
  damage to roofs and poorly built structures, flying debris and 
  result in downed trees and power lines as well as power outages.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means that winds are expected to be at least 
40 mph with gusts over 60 mph. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts, secure loose objects, and prepare for the possibility
downed power lines and power outages.

&&

$$

HIZ022-101445-
/O.UPG.PHFO.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190210T0400Z/
/O.UPG.PHFO.HW.A.0001.190210T0400Z-190211T1600Z/
/O.EXB.PHFO.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190211T1000Z/
Haleakala Summit-
332 PM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST SUNDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect until midnight HST Sunday night. The
Wind Advisory is no longer in effect. The High Wind Watch is no
longer in effect.

* WINDS...West 40 to 60 mph with localized gusts over 85 mph. 

* TIMING...Through midnight HST Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking 
  hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means that winds at the summits are expected
to be at least 56 mph, with gusts over 66 mph. Travel to summit 
areas should be delayed until winds subside.

&&

$$

HIZ028-101445-
/O.CON.PHFO.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190212T0400Z/
Big Island Summits-
332 PM HST Sat Feb 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 65 to 115 mph with localized gusts over 140 mph. 
 
* TIMING...Through 6 PM HST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds this strong can make driving and hiking 
  extremely dangerous. Travel to the summits should be delayed 
  until the high winds subside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning for the summits means that winds are expected
to be at least 56 mph with gusts over 66 mph. Travel to the
summit areas should be delayed until winds subside.

&&

$$

Burke

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
931 PM HST Thu Feb 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to move down the island chain tonight
with strengthening northerly winds expected behind the front.
Windy conditions will develop through Friday, with very windy and
unsettled weather expected over the weekend as a low strengthens
and moves south toward the islands. Unsettled weather may persist
into the middle of next week as the low lingers in the island
vicinity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1007 mb low is located around 450
miles north-northeast of Honolulu, with a cold front extending
south-southwestward through Maui County. Meanwhile, a strong 1034
mb high is centered around 1450 miles northwest of Kauai. Behind
the front moderate to locally breezy north to northwest winds
have filled in, with moderate westerlies in advance of the front.
Infrared satellite imagery shows clear to partly cloudy skies
across Kauai and Oahu, variably cloudy conditions across Maui
County, and mostly cloudy skies over the Big Island. Radar imagery
shows scattered showers affecting Maui County and the Big Island,
with a few showers also affecting mainly north facing slopes and
coasts of Kauai and Oahu. Main short term concerns of many,
revolve around the dangerously large surf and potentially
damaging winds expected over the weekend.

Tonight and Friday,
The area of low pressure north of the state will track steadily
eastward over the next 24 hours or so, dragging a cold front
eastward through the Big Island overnight then southeastward and
further away from the Big Island on Friday. Meanwhile, the high
northwest of the islands will strengthen to around 1039 mb by
Friday afternoon. The gradient across the state will tighten as a
result of these two features, with moderate to breezy north-
northwest winds overspreading the entire island chain by daybreak
Friday. The winds will increase further during the day on Friday,
and could potentially reach advisory levels across the smaller
islands by mid to late afternoon. Will evaluate the latest
guidance and make a decision on when to hoist a Wind Advisory for
portions of the state with the morning forecast package.

As for sensible weather details, scattered showers will affect
Maui County and the Big Island tonight as the cold front sweeps
through. Behind the front light showers will be possible across
north facing slopes and coasts in the northerly flow regime, with
mostly rain free conditions aside from a spill over light shower
or some sprinkles in leeward areas. The post frontal weather
regime will continue statewide through the day on Friday.

For the Big Island summits, strong winds are expected to continue
through the remainder of the night, and a Wind Advisory remains
in effect through 6 AM Friday. The advisory may need to be
extended into the day on Friday. Additionally, with mid and high
cloud streaming overhead tonight, some patchy freezing drizzle and
light snow will be possible at the summits, but amounts are
expected to remain light and below Winter Weather Advisory
thresholds.

Friday night through Sunday night,
Model solutions remain in good agreement, showing a new area of low
pressure developing well north-northeast of the islands Friday
night, then deepening as it moves rapidly southward toward the
islands Saturday and Saturday night. The low is then forecast to
slow down and stall out a couple hundred miles north of the state
Sunday and Sunday night. A surge of strong northerly winds is
expected Friday night into early Saturday, and a Wind Advisory
will likely be needed for all or a large portion of the island
chain. The winds may trend briefly below advisory levels across
portions of the state on Saturday, but the winds should ramp back
up out of the northwest Saturday evening, then becoming very windy
out of the west-northwest after midnight Saturday through at
least Sunday evening. High Wind Warnings will likely be needed for
at least portions if not the entire island chain during this
period of time. Given the unusual northwest thru west direction
during the expected peak of the wind event, downed trees and
power outages will be a distinct possibility statewide, with the
areas where the winds get funneled most effectively in these wind
directions being the most susceptible.

As for sensible weather details, periods of showery weather will
impact the islands with the showers favoring north and northwest
facing slopes and coasts. Given the strength of the winds and
elevated inversion heights, some of the showers will spread over
the terrain into the typically drier leeward areas as well. The
airmass will be plenty unstable given the cold temperatures aloft,
but the moisture depth is forecast to remain below 20 kft, so at
this time the probability of thunder although non-zero, appears
low. That said, with the strong winds aloft in place, as bands of
showers move through the islands squally weather can be expected,
and damaging winds within these squalls can't be ruled out.

For the Big Island summits, winds will increase Friday night with
High Wind Warning level winds likely Saturday through the
remainder of the weekend. In addition, some wintry weather could
occur mainly Sunday and/or Sunday night as some deeper moisture
rotates through the area. In fact, temperatures will likely be
cool enough that some wintry weather could even occur at the
highest elevations of Haleakala as well.

Overall, this low is shaping up to be a high-impact event,
bringing multiple weather hazards, and significant threats to life
and property. As such, we have attempted to highlight the most
significant weather impacts in an ongoing Special Weather
Statement (SPSHFO) - until such time that Watches and Warnings
become appropriate.

Monday through next Thursday,
Uncertainty in the forecast increases following the weekend
storm, with the GFS and ECMWF continuing to display some
differences in the synoptic pattern evolution. Despite the
differences in the movement and of the low to the north of the
islands, they both indicate that unsettled weather will hold in
place through much of the upcoming week. As a result, will keep
showers in the forecast even for the typically drier areas
through the period. Trade winds don't appear like they'll return
anytime soon, with the models showing a general west-northwest
wind direction continuing through much of the new week at anywhere
from moderate to locally strong speeds.

&&

.AVIATION...
A low pressure system north of the islands will produce isolated
to scattered showers across the region tonight and tomorrow. A
high pressure ridge will build in over the islands on Friday with
increasing north to northeasterly winds forecast for all TAF
sites. VFR conditions will prevail for most areas over the next
24 hours.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remain in effect for the
Big Island this evening with low cloud ceilings improving after
10Z.

AIRMET Tango in effect for moderate clear air turbulence from an
upper level jet stream is producing over the Hawaiian Islands
with pilot reports confirming this forecast. Expect this upper
level turbulence to diminish after 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A low pressure system is currently centered near 27N 154.5W, or
slightly less than 400 nm north-northeast of Honolulu. This
feature, which is moving slowly eastward, is expected to gradually
intensify through Friday. Meanwhile, a much stronger low pressure
system is forecast to develop far north of the state on Saturday,
and then race toward the south through early next week. This
second feature, is expected to bring unprecedented impacts, with
very hazardous, and potentially life-threatening, conditions
spreading across most Hawaiian Waters from this weekend into
early next week. If experienced mariners are considering
venturing away from protected waters this weekend, please prepare
not only for very strong sustained winds and treacherous seas, but
for the likelihood of extreme squally weather conditions. If in
doubt, DO NOT GO OUT!

Currently, increasing northwest to north winds are spreading down
the island chain from west to east. Gale force winds are likely
starting Friday evening over the western waters, and a Gale Watch
remains in effect for the waters adjacent to Kauai. Across the
northern Hawaiian Offshore Waters beyond 40 nm from the Hawaiian
Islands, winds will likely reach gale force starting Friday
night, and then possibly increase to storm force (at least 50
knots!) by Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been
issued for most Hawaiian Waters starting early Friday morning for
a combination of increasing seas and winds. Expect the
deteriorating conditions to eventually require either a SCA or a
Gale Warning for all coastal waters from this weekend into early
next week.

A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for east facing
shores of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai due to a
long-period northeast swell. This HSA is currently in effect
through early Friday morning.

Forerunners from a new large west-northwest swell are evident at
buoys 51101 and 51001 early this evening. This swell will cause
surf to build late tonight along most north and west facing shores
of the smaller islands by Friday afternoon. Therefore, a High
Surf Warning has been issued for increasing surf along north and
west facing shores of Kauai, Niihau, Oahu, and Molokai, and for
north facing shores of Maui. Increasing surf may also require a
HSA for west facing shores of the Big Island starting Friday or
Friday night.

By late Saturday, the model guidance continues to insist that the
increasing winds and captured fetch associated with storm-force
low pressure system will cause extremely large and disorganized
waves to spread across the coastal waters. The combined seas will
become extremely high due to a combination of the longer period
swell, and the huge wind waves generated by near gale to gale-
force winds over the coastal waters.

There is also a strong potential for extreme harbor surges in
north and west facing harbors, as well as significant coastal
inundation and beach erosion along north and west facing shores of
most islands this weekend. This event may bring unprecedented
coastal flooding to north and west facing shores, so anyone with
vulnerable ocean front property needs to complete their
preparations for this event as soon as possible.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau-
Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu
Koolau-Olomana-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Windward-Oahu
Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward
Haleakala-Big Island North and East.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai
Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-
Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi
Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-
Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters.

Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for
Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward
Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Houston