Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
853 PM HST Sun Feb 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of low pressure will continue to shift eastward,
just to the north of the islands overnight. Winds are expected to
slowly diminish as the low moves northeast of the area, with
weather conditions slowly improving late tonight and through the
day on Monday. A band of enhanced moisture is expected to move
through Tuesday night and Wednesday as the trade winds begin to
return, increasing shower coverage and intensity once again.
Breezy to locally windy trades are then expected Wednesday night
through next weekend, with a more typical windward and mauka
focused shower pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 999 mb area of low pressure is located
around 155 miles northeast of Honolulu and is tracking eastward
between 10 and 15 mph. Windy conditions continue across the state,
with directions out of the north to northwest across the western
islands, and out of the west across the eastern half of the state.
Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy conditions over
Kauai and Oahu, with variably cloudy skies over Maui County and
the Big Island. Radar imagery shows numerous showers across the
state, with the brunt of the activity currently moving through
Kauai and Oahu. Main short term concerns revolve around the
diminishing winds and slowly improving weather conditions as the
low moves eastward and further away from the islands.

Rest of tonight,
The winds will continue to slowly diminish as the area of low
pressure tracks steadily eastward. A trough currently extending
from the low westward to Oahu, will rotate southeastward through
the remainder of the state, bringing some enhanced showers and
shifting the low level winds around to the north and northwest as
it moves through. Winds have dropped below warning levels in most
areas this evening, but given solid advisory level winds in many
areas and the potential for gusts in the intense showers to reach
warning thresholds through the overnight hours, will keep the High
Wind Warning (HWW) in place for now, with the expectation that it
will be cancelled with the 4 AM forecast package. The exception
will be across the Big Island summits where the HWW will continue
through the day on Monday. In addition to the wind headlines, a
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Haleakala summit
and the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa summits for snow and freezing fog
through 6 AM Monday.

Monday through Tuesday,
The area of low pressure will lift northeastward and away from the
island chain through the first half of the week. North to
northwest winds will remain breezy to locally windy on Monday,
particularly across the eastern end of the state. There is a
chance that winds across portions of the state could hold at Wind
Advisory levels through the morning hours, and will make a
determination on whether any wind headlines will be needed with
the 4 AM forecast package. A weak trough rotating around the low,
will swing southward through the islands Monday night and
Tuesday, shifting the winds around to the north. Lingering
instability associated with an upper level trough in combination
with moisture rotating around the surface low and moisture
embedded in the low level wind flow, will bring scattered showers
to windward and mauka areas with some showers spilling over into
leeward locations at times.

Tuesday night through next Sunday,
Model solutions are in good agreement through the extended period
given the highly amplified pattern across the central Pacific.
Although the exact track and timing details differ a bit, both the
GFS and ECWMF show the area of low pressure tracking northeastward
away from the area, but leaving a trailing surface trough in place
to the east of the state. At the same time, both models show strong
high pressure remaining in place to the north of the island
chain through the period. Winds will shift to the northeast at
moderate to breezy speeds Tuesday night, with breezy to locally
windy northeast trades then expected Wednesday through next
weekend. The models are in good agreement showing a band of
enhanced moisture moving southward through the islands in
association with the returning and strengthening trade winds
Tuesday night and Wednesday, increasing shower coverage and
intensity statewide. The weather pattern should then transition
over to a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern
through the remainder of the week, but could be a bit wetter than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
The low pressure center that has been problematic the last day or
so is now located north of Molokai/northeast of Oahu and steadily
progressing to the east. Wind speeds will continue to be elevated
well into the overnight hours before beginning to decrease in
intensity as the low pushes away from the state and the pressure
gradient loosens toward early Monday. Showers that have
accompanied this low continue with scattered pockets of moderate
activity. Expect showers to continue well into the overnight hours
causing mountain obscuration along west thru northeast slopes.

AIRMETS currently in effect are Sierra for mountain obscuration
for all islands, Tango for low-level and upper level turbulence
and Zulu for the potential light icing in clouds from
9,000-16,000ft. These AIRMETS are expected to stay in place for a
majority of the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Life-threatening conditions will continue over all Hawaiian waters
through Monday morning. If experienced mariners in properly equipped
vessels are considering venturing away from protected waters tonight,
prepare for gale force winds, treacherous seas, and periods of
storm force wind gusts in squalls. If in doubt, DO NOT GO OUT!

The latest satellite imagery showed this gale-force low tracking
eastward around 135 nm northeast of Oahu this evening. As this
system continues eastward skirting the northern waters tonight
into Monday, winds will gradually veer to the north over the
western end of the state and to the northwest over the eastern
end. Seas ended up peaking at the Hanalei nearshore PacIOOS buoy
at a record breaking 38 ft around noon today. Seas will peak
tonight over Big Island waters as the low makes its closest point
of approach.

A combination of gale-force winds and unusually high seas that
continue to batter the coasts has led to life-threatening surf.
The duration of this event will result in significant beach
erosion that could result in property damage along the immediate
north and west facing shores. Overwash onto vulnerable roadways
has been reported earlier today along the North Shore and west
side of Oahu, which will remain possible through this evenings
high tide cycle. Latest buoys are indicating a downward trend from
west to east of the state and the threats for significant coastal
flooding should be gradually subsiding through the night tonight
across the western end of the state. For Maui County and the Big
Island, they will likely see the strongest surges tonight for Maui
County and early Monday morning for the Big Island. Strong
currents and surges in the exposed harbors will be capable of
damaging boats and infrastructure due to the jostling of docks.

Guidance depicts this area of low pressure slowly tracking
northeast and away from the islands through the first half of the
week. Winds are forecast to shift out of the northeast and trend
down into the fresh to strong category Monday night through
Tuesday locally. Strong pressure gradient between this low and
strong high pressure far north of the area, however, will continue
to generate large seas out of the northeast. Small Craft Advisory
seas and high surf for exposed north and east facing shores will
result through the latter half of the week beginning as early as
Tuesday night. As a result, impacts will shift to east facing
shores Wednesday through Friday, likely resulting in warning-level
surf.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai-Oahu-
Molokai-Lanai-Kahoolawe-Maui-Kona-South Big Island-Big Island
North and East-Kohala-Big Island Interior.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Oahu South Shore-
Lanai Makai-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Leeward Haleakala-Big
Island North and East.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau-Kauai
Windward-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Oahu
Koolau-Olomana-Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-
Windward Haleakala-Kona-Kohala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Haleakala
Summit-Big Island Summits.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters-

&&

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Chevalier
MARINE...Kino

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
925 PM HST SUN FEB 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE HONOKAA           20.06N 155.40W
02/10/2019                   HAWAII             HI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE ROUTE 19 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38-39
            BOTH LANES CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED UTILITY
            POLES.

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
942 PM HST SUN FEB 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 W NAALEHU             19.08N 155.64W
02/10/2019                   HAWAII             HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN STATE ROUTE 11 PARTIALLY CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
948 PM HST SUN FEB 10 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W HONOKAA             20.08N 155.48W
02/10/2019                   HAWAII             HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND UTILITY POLES DOWN. ROAD CLOSED.

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
103 AM HST MON FEB 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 E LAUPAHOEHOE         19.97N 155.22W
02/11/2019                   HAWAII             HI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOCAL EM REPORTED TREE DOWN NEAR MILE MARKER
            23.5 ON HIGHWAY 19. TREE IS BLOCKING HILO
            BOUND LANES.

&&