Special Weather Statement, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
934 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle south of the region this morning.
A potent upper level disturbance crosses the area today with
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms. High pressure
builds back into the region on Monday with drier and sunnier
weather. A weak cold front will move through early Tuesday. Wed
through Friday, will become gradually become more warm and
humid each day. By Friday we could see some scattered
thunderstorms develop in the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM Update...Have updated the forecast for the afternoon
hours, mainly for PoP timing based on a blend of latest
convection allowing models. Coverage of showers should gradually
increase later this morning and especially into the early
afternoon hours as air mass will be uncapped by late morning
with anomalously cold temperatures aloft. We do expect
thunderstorms to develop as well, mainly this afternoon. At this
time, latest HRRR runs and other CAMs point to mainly southern
zones for best chances for isolated strong to severe storms this
afternoon. This makes sense given this is where the most
sunshine (heating) is taking place this morning and should
result in SBCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/KG. Deep layer shear
should remain weak, so we're likely looking at most storms being
the pulse variety. Heavy downpours will be a threat, with a low
prob of isolated flash flooding underneath the slowest moving
storms.

Previously...

550 AM...Minor ESTF update to reflect the current mesonet in
near term grids.

Prev disc...
At 06z a 1005 millibar low was vicinity of Penobscot Bay with a
trailing cold front through southern New England. A second cold
front extended from northern Maine westward to the north shore
of Lake Ontario. GOES Water vapor imagery showed an upper low
over western Quebec. An impulse pivoting around this feature was
exiting the coast along with a weakening area of convection. A
second impulse was along the Quebec-Ontario border and will drop
southeast across the area today along with the upper low and
associated cold pool. For today...a brief break early this
morning before the upper low moves overhead. Daytime heating
and cool cyclonic flow will result in widespread convection
developing quickly this morning. The modified forecast soundings
support small hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain with
activity pinwheeling around the upper low as it traverses the
area. The extensive cloud cover and widespread precipitation
will limit high temperatures to upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The upper low exits the area this evening bringing any lingering
showers quickly to an end. Rising heights and a weak ridge of
high pressure should bring clearing skies tonight with some
patchy fog developing overnight. Lows will be in the 50s. On
Monday the weakening ridge of high pressure will build by to
our south. We'll see some warm air advection mid and high clouds
cross the area during the afternoon...otherwise a partly sunny
day and warmer day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After weak 500 MB wave crosses the area on Tuesday, ridging
builds for mid-late week as strong sub-tropical ridge develops
over the wrn Atlantic /something we've yet to see this warm
season/, with troughing over the wrn CONUS. This should lead to
several days of increasingly warm and more humid air. The flow
shifts to more zonal by next weekend, after a short-wave trough
crosses the region on Saturday, but as we know, the ridge
sometimes holds longer than the models want to knock it down.

Monday night will see some showers develop across the N , and
they may work down to into srn zones late Monday night and early
Tue morning as the wave and associated cold front approach. Best
forcing stays north and there's a remnant MCS passing to our
south, so could stay dry in the srn zones as the system moves
through, but QPF is light, even in the north. The air mass
change behind the front is not that significant, and with NW
flow should se the downslope warm things up Tue afternoon with
highs 75-80 in the mtns, and 80-85 most everywhere else. Should
see Tds drop off a little behind the front, and this will allow
for lows in the 50s and low 60s, which will probably be the
coolest night into Saturday at least.

Wed-Fri will see temps warm a bit each a bit each day, and
humidity will increase each day as well, but should dry at
least Wed and Thu. Highs Wed will be around 80 in the N, and in
the low mod 80s everywhere else, although 75-80 at the beaches,
and highs on Thursday and Friday will be 80-85 in the mtns and
85-90 in the south, with most of the beaches in the upper 70s to
low 80s. HEat indices could make it into the low 90s in srn NH
on Thu, and may be 90-95 in srn and interior SW ME on Friday.
There's some potential for air mass thunderstorms on Thu, but
these would be isolated and mainly be limited to the mtns of NH.
The better chc will be Friday afternoon. Overnight lows Wed
night thru Fri night will be in the 60s everywhere, warmest in
interior srn NH, and coolest in the mtns and on the mid coast.

There's the possible of a cold front moving through on Saturday,
with a better chc for showers/storms. TI'll probably be one more
warm and humid day through ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...Areas of MVFR today in shra and
-tsra with gusty winds and small hail possible. Bcmg VFR this
evening with lcl IFR in stratus and fog btw 03z and 12z Monday.

Long Term...Possible period of MVFR-IFR in showers late Mon
night into Tue morning, with VFR then expected Tue afternoon
thru Thursday. Vly fog will be possible each night at KHIE/KLEB.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/... Winds and waves will remain
below SCA levels through Monday. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible today with locally gusty winds and small hail.

Long Term...All stays quiet on the waters Tuesday thru Thursday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Ekster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
324 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-011000-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
324 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms today could produce small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150>154-011000-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
324 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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