Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
309 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south through the region this evening and
will push offshore overnight. High pressure will build in from
the west Thursday and will shift offshore southeast of the
region on Friday. A weak cold front will approach from the north
Friday night and will drop south into northern zones on
Saturday. The front will continue south and offshore Saturday
night. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and
Sunday night and will shift offshore on Monday. A warm front
will move through northern zones Monday night and early
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Focus is mainly thru the evening with active convection ongoing.
Best instability remains confined to areas near the coast...and
shear continues to be marginal at around 25 kts. I still think
the best chance for severe storms will be SE NH and SWrn
ME...with more isolated events outside that area. A MCV has
maintained convection for much of the night until now...and as
storms merge and cold pool builds there may be a wind threat for
a small area of SE NH. Otherwise convection farther N and
W...especially over the Champlain Valley...is tied more to upper
forcing...and should weaken with Ewd extent.

Tonight showers and any remaining storms dissipate and/or move
off the coast. Primary driver of intensity is daytime
heating...so I expect they lose their punch fairly quickly after
sunset. Areas of valley fog will be possible...especially where
any recent rain has fallen. The front will likely take until Thu
to mix down completely...so I anticipate another muggy night
near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Mostly quiet day behind the front. Along the sea breeze front
there may be enough convergence to pop some isolated
showers...but kept PoP at less than 20 percent. Most notably
dewpoints will begin to fall into the lower 60s thru the day as
we mix down some drier air aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly quiet in the extended forecast with just a few weak
fronts moving through the region...

High pressure will continue to build in from the west Thursday
night producing mostly clear skies and light winds. Lows will
range through the 50s.

High pressure will hold over the region on Friday with
seasonable temperatures and comfortable humidity. Looking for
mostly sunny skies and light winds turning onshore at the
coast. Highs generally top out in the lower to mid 80s.

Fair weather will continue Friday night as high pressure drifts
off to the southeast and a weak frontal boundary approaches
from the north. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Cold front will gradually settle south into northern zones on
Saturday. This will bring a chance of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms to northeast zones but limited
dynamics and moisture should keep this activity widely
scattered. Remainder of the forecast area will see mostly
sunny skies and highs once again in the lower to mid 80s.

Cold front will drop south through the region Saturday night
with little fanfare other than a few passing clouds and
should be offshore by morning. Lows will range from the mid
50s north to the lower 60s south.

High pressure will build in from the west Sunday through
Sunday night and will shift offshore to the southeast on
Monday. Looking for mostly sunny skies both days with highs
from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will range
through the 50s.

A warm front moving through southern Quebec will bring increasing
clouds Monday evening and a chance of showers in far northern and
eastern zones overnight. Lows will range from the lower 50s north to
the lower 60s south.

Heat and humidity will make a return to the northeast on Tuesday as
the warm front pushes east of the region and southwest flow kicks
in. Highs will range through the lower to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Local IFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and
evening. The best chances are across Srn NH terminals where I
have TEMPO groups for TSRA. Otherwise there will be valley fog
tonight especially in areas that receive some rainfall...with
local LIFR conditions expected. VFR conditions expected Thu. Sea
breezes may try and push inland for the very near coastal
terminals of PSM...PWM...RKD.

Long Term...VFR Thursday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.
First hazard will be thunderstorms this evening...some of which
may contain strong or gusty winds...especially off the Seacoast
towards Jeffreys Ledge. Second hazard will be marine fog...which
is much more uncertain. Best chance will be around Penobscot
Bay...with winds turning off shore and likely keeping it farther
into the Gulf of ME elsewhere.

Long Term...No problems noted.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Legro/Sinsabaugh

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>015-011845-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-
Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-
Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Strafford-Cheshire-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
into this evening. Localized heavy rain and damaging winds are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-011845-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms may produce localized
strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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