Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will move south across the region this
evening, generating showers and thunderstorms. The front won't
result in much of an airmass change though. Expect to see
gradually increasing temperatures and humidity through Tuesday
when another frontal boundary moves through. This front will
bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
evening into Wednesday with cooler air arriving behind it for
the last part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Primary focus of the near term will be on showers and
thunderstorms moving across the forecast area. A weak surface
boundary is dropping south out of Canada this afternoon and will
wash out over the coastal plain later this evening. Strong
surface heating and relatively high surface dewpoints is
resulting in MLCape values of 1000-1500j/kg. That being said,
there is very little directional or speed shear aloft. A
weakening mid level shortwave is moving through the area as
well. This all combines to produce a decent environment for
convection, but not a strong enough environment for widespread
severe thunderstorms. Expect gusty winds to by the primary
threat and SPC has placed us in a marginal area for severe. One
or two cells may develop enough structure to warrant a warning
this evening.

As the upper level support for storms races off to the east this
evening, expect to see storms quickly die off before midnight.
Due to the remaining low level moisture though, we will likely
see areas of fog develop again tonight in favored valley
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level flow becomes more zonal on Monday morning with a
weak mid level ridge building over northern New England. This
should be enough stability to keep the weather quiet. Upper
level flow shifts to the southwest overnight on Monday,
resulting in warmer temperatures moving in and prepping us for
the next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A frontal system will approach from the west on Tuesday. Strong
southwest flow ahead of the system should allow for the warmest
temperatures of the forecast period. Locations in southern New
Hampshire and the coastal plain of Maine will see temperatures
climb into the lower 90s, with 80s further inland. The frontal
boundary is relatively slow moving and looks like it should
cross the region during the overnight hours Tuesday night and
into Wednesday. This timing would keep the weather primarily
showers with isolated thunderstorms and should limit any severe
thunderstorm activity. Once the system clears the coast on
Wednesday, high pressure and cooler temperatures prevail for
Thursday and Friday before another system arrives on Saturday.
The system on Saturday currently looks like it should move out
of the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday and across the region by
Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...Showers and thunderstorms this evening will produce
some areas of MVFR. There will likely be some valley fog tonight
as well that will generate some IFR/LIFR conditions at a few of
the TAF sites. Otherwise, tomorrow looks mainly VFR.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions expected, with MVFR/IFR
conditions expected on Tuesday as a frontal boundary moves
through.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...No Flags but winds may briefly approach sca levels
this evening.

Long Term...No flags expected.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Pohl

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

MEZ008-009-013-014-281830-
Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Northern Franklin-Central
Somerset-
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SOMERSET AND EAST
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 202 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kingfield, or
18 miles north of Farmington, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingfield, Carrabassett Valley, Phillips, Anson, Embden, Avon,
Concord, Lexington, Mount Abram, Freeman, New Portland, Salem,
Pleasant Ridge Plantation, Highland Plantation, Strong and New
Vineyard.

This also includes...
  Mount Abraham and Spaulding Mountain.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4483 7027 4500 7035 4511 6998 4487 6987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 251DEG 26KT 4494 7021

Kimble

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
216 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

MEZ009-014-281830-
Southern Somerset-Central Somerset-
216 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

At 215 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Bingham, or 22 miles southwest of Greenville, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Caratunk Plantation, Bald Mountain, Mayfield, Moscow, East Moxie and
The Forks Plantation.

This also includes...
  Moxie Bald Mountain.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4529 6970 4523 6969 4512 6966 4508 6986
      4525 6994 4532 6971
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 259DEG 13KT 4519 6986

Kimble