Beach Hazards Statement 12, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1249 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the region through Friday. A cold
front will slowly approach from the northwest Friday night and
will gradually drop south through the region on Saturday with an
attendant chance for showers and thunderstorms. The most humid
day of the stretch will be Saturday. High pressure will build
in behind the front on Sunday with cooler and drier weather. Dry
conditions last through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1247 AM Update...
Minor changes were made to the forecast for the overnight to
continue the development of fog across portions of the region.
Minor adjustments made to temperatures and dew points.

7 PM Update...
Seabreeze has made in inland to near a Middleton NH to Raymond
ME to Augusta ME line. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and a
few degrees cooler south of this boundary, while north of it
temps are mostly in the mid 80s. With clear skies tonight we
should be able to drop down to close to this afternoon's dew
point temperatures- the upper 50s to lower 60s most places.
Adjusted hourly temperatures to match current conditions, but
otherwise no changes to the forecast. Will be letting the Beach
Hazard Statement go at 8 PM.

Previous discussion...
Mostly sunny conditions late this afternoon will give way to
mostly clear conditions tonight with boundary layer cumulus
quickly fading after sunset. There is still some high level
wildfire smoke overhead which could make for a hazy sunset in
some areas. A very warm evening is in store, and will give way
to radiational cooling in favorable locations overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Another hot day is in store for Friday with many locations
making another run at 90 degrees. However, SFC dewpoint
temperatures should once again mix down during the afternoon
allowing for heat indices to remain right around the actual
temperature readings. There will be a short wave trough rounding
the top of the mid and upper level ridge, but forcing for ascent
this far east will be weak and should result in dry weather
despite some increasing clouds.

The mid and upper level ridge begins to flatten with the
approach of a short wave trough Friday night. This may allow for
increased chances for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late at
night across the western zones. Otherwise, some marine fog and
stratus may advect westward onto the coastal plain late at night
as 70 degree dewpoints push toward the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper trough passing through southeast Canada will send a cold
front through our area on Saturday. Ahead of the front, good
moisture advection will bring 70+ dewpoints into the area
contributing to widespread instability during the day. With the
front moving through during the day we will have an ideal
combination of lift and instability to produce widespread
showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as it
drops southward through the area. Wind shear is rather meager so
storms will have some difficulty organizing into a broader
severe weather threat, but some localized downbursts are
possible. With a deep, moist air mass in place thunderstorms
will be prolific rain producers with localized heavy downpours
expected. By evening the front makes it to the coastline with
any remaining showers and thunderstorms shifting quickly
offshore.

With the warm and humid air mass in place on Saturday we will
see higher heat index values... in the low to possibly mid 90s.
Although air temperatures will be slightly cooler on Saturday
due to more abundant cloud cover, dewpoints in the low to mid
70s will drive heat index values higher. At this point maximum
forecast heat index values are at or below 95 degrees so a Heat
Advisory is not expected, although it will be close.

Northerly flow behind the cold front brings much drier and
cooler air into the area on Sunday. This air mass has origins
over the Arctic and Hudson Bay and the dewpoints will reflect
that. Daytime heating still warms us up to near 80 degrees, but
the lack of humidity will be a noticeable change.

High pressure gradually builds east across the northern tier of
the country next week. Expect continued dry weather with
gradually warming temperatures. The next chance of precipitation
will be in the middle to later part of next week when the next
trough moves into the region. There are still wild ranges in
timing on this feature among the models ranging from Thursday to
Saturday. So at this time will just include a chance of showers
and thunderstorms while we wait for better agreement on timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected for the most part
tonight through Friday night. However, some valley fog and
perhaps some haze may develop late allowing for briefly lower
conditions toward sunrise. In addition, some low stratus and fog
may affect the coastal plain late Friday night as higher
moisture values move in.

Long Term...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected
Saturday as a cold front moves through the region. Behind the
cold front expect clearing conditions and VFR conditions lasting
through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Small craft conditions are not expected through
Friday night. However, some southerly wind gusts around 20 kt
will be likely Friday night ahead of an advancing cold front.
Marine fog will be possible then as well.

Long Term...A cold front moves across the waters Saturday
evening. This will shift winds to the north but should remain
below advisory levels. High pressure gradually builds in from
the west through next week with relatively tranquil conditions
likely.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomically high tides continue tonight. However, with light
winds, tranquil seas, and decreasing residuals, there should be
little or no issues around the time of high tide around
midnight.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Concord, NH ASOS was affected by thunderstorms on Sunday.
Unfortunately it may be a few more days before parts arrive to
fix the system. During the outage, TAFs will continue to be
issued for Concord without amendments scheduled. Climate data
for Concord will also be affected, although backup sources may
be used to fill in data after the fact. The outage is likely to
continue until the end of the week.

The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter will go off the air on Monday July
8th around noon. This will be an extended outage as the tower
which was severely damaged in a storm this winter is rebuilt.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

MEZ007>009-013-014-020>022-025>028-NHZ001>003-005-007-011-060015-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Franklin-
Southern Somerset-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Sagadahoc-
Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Northern Coos-Southern Coos-
Northern Grafton-Southern Grafton-Sullivan-Cheshire-
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Maine,
southwest Maine, west central Maine, western Maine, central New
Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday. A few of
the storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds the main
threat. Locally heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage
flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ150>154-060015-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday. A few of
the storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds the main
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MEZ012-018-019-023-024-NHZ004-006-008>010-012>015-060015-
Southern Oxford-Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Coastal York-
Coastal Cumberland-Northern Carroll-Southern Carroll-Merrimack-
Belknap-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-Western And Central Hillsborough-
813 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, southwest Maine,
western Maine, New Hampshire, central New Hampshire, northern New
Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday. A few of
the storms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds the main
threat. Locally heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage
flooding are possible.

The combination of warm temperatures and very high humidity will
lead to heat index values reaching the low to possibly mid 90s on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.