Wind Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

208 
WWUS72 KGSP 081513
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1013 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.Much cooler air will arrive on gusty northwest winds through the
day today, before diminishing this evening into tonight as high
pressure builds into the region. The strongest winds are expected
across higher elevations, peaking in strength later this morning
into the afternoon.

NCZ033-049-050-090000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190209T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Banner Elk and Newland
1013 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Northern mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Frequent wind gusts, some of which could be strong 
  enough to knock down tree limbs and power lines.

* TIMING...Through 7 PM this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

046 
WWUS72 KGSP 081957
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...

.Much cooler air will continue to push in on gusty northwest winds
this afternoon, before diminishing this evening into tonight as 
high pressure builds into the region. The strongest winds are 
expected across higher elevations, peaking in strength later this 
morning into the afternoon.

NCZ033-049-050-090000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190209T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Banner Elk and Newland
257 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Northern mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Frequent wind gusts, some of which could be strong 
  enough to knock down tree limbs and power lines.

* TIMING...Through 7 PM this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

461 
WWUS72 KGSP 090002
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
702 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

NCZ033-049-050-090115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190209T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Banner Elk and Newland
702 PM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds will continue to slowly diminish this evening.

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
339 AM EST Fri Feb 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will crosses the area this morning, with robust
Canadian high pressure spreading back over the region for the
weekend. Deeper moisture is expected to return on Sunday and bring a
cool and wet pattern for the first part of next week. Another cold
front crosses the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM: The cold front was pushing into far western NC with
generally light shower activity riding northeast along and behind
the front. Temperatures still generally in the 50s across the
mountains ahead of the front with low to mid 60s in the Piedmont.
There is a fairly strong temperature gradient across this front with
temps quickly falling into the 30s and 40s behind the front. The
cold front will push through the FA by early this morning. Light
isolated to scattered shower activity across the mountains will come
to an end during this time with little if any shower activity to the
east of the mountains. The main impact of the front will be to usher
in much colder and drier air through the day and into tonight.
However, there will also be gusty winds at times focused across the
northern mountains above 3500 feet where a wind advisory will be
issued shortly, and be in effect from 4 am until 7 pm tonight. Highs
today across the mountains have likely already occurred as cold air
advection will provide gradually cooler conditions through the day.
Afternoon highs (if you can call them that) will only be in the 30s
to near 50 across the mountains. A later arrival of the cold front
aided by the modifying effects of downsloping winds will support
afternoon highs east of the mountains ranging from the low 60s to
low 70s, in the lower Piedmont of SC. A broad area of high pressure
(nearing 1050 mb across Minnesota) will continue to filter into the
region tonight, supporting lighter north to northeast winds. The
lighter winds and clear skies will support a return to near normal
lows with 20s across the mountains and 30s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Friday: Zonal flow aloft will continue over the
southeastern CONUS through the weekend. That said, heights do fall
slightly Sunday night as the center of the anomalous anti-cyclone
moves east. Weak short waves will move through the flow and into the
area Sunday and Sunday night. Seasonal high pressure builds in from
the NE into cold air damming position Saturday and Saturday night.
Highs will be a little below normal and lows will be near normal.

Moisture and isentropic lift increase from the southwest on Sunday
slowly spreading precip into the area. With the cold temps and dry
low level air some as the precip could fall as freezing rain across
portions of the mountains. However, this is still uncertain as the
deep moisture and stronger isentropic lift hold off until afternoon.
No significant icing is expected given the very light precip that
would fall if it begins that early. PoP increases to likely all
areas Sunday night as the afore mentioned deep moisture and
isentropic lift move across the area when temps will be above
freezing. Precip will still be on the light side. Highs will be
around 10 degrees below normal and lows will be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday: Guidance in decent agreement through much of
the medium range. Upper flow becomes amplified through Tuesday as
trough over the Rockies deepens and moves east as a low closes off
over the Plains Monday and moves into the Midwest on Tuesday.
Ridging builds over the eastern CONUS Monday and moves east on
Tuesday. This puts the area in deep, strong southwesterly flow. The
upper low moves into Quebec on Wednesday dragging a trough across
the area. The ECMWF is not quite as deep with the low and trough but
does have significant forcing across the area. Precip will be
ongoing at the beginning of the period with deep moisture and
isentropic lift over the area. This continues through Monday night
as a cold front approaches from the west and cold air damming
lingers over the area. On Tuesday, the ECMWF is stronger with the
damming keeping the wedge boundary south of I-85 while the GFS is
weaker showing it along or near that corridor. Can't rule out a
thunderstorm, especially if the GFS is correct. The GFS would also
indicate the potential for isolated severe storms given the strong
shear and weak helicity, especially along the wedge boundary.
However, that is highly uncertain at this time, so have left thunder
out for now. QPF will be moderate and potentially heavy, but again,
too early to know if flooding is more likely, especially given the
recent dry spell. The front crosses the area Tuesday night quickly
bringing an end to any precip early Wednesday.

Dry high pressure builds in behind the front. The GFS remains dry
for Thursday but the ECMWF has gone back and forth on another system
approaching from the west late in the day with southerly moisture
return. Have kept the forecast dry for now. Highs near normal Monday
rise to around 5 degrees above normal for the rest of the period.
Lows 10 to 15 degrees above normal Monday night fall to just above
normal by Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front will continue to push through
the region through 15Z. SWrly will turn NWrly behind the front and
continue to be gusty at times through 00Z, especially across the
mountains, including KAVL. Brief weak LLWS is possible with the
frontal passage at KAVL around 08Z. A few lights showers are
possible at KAVL with the frontal passage, but are unlikely east of
the mountains.

Outlook: After a dry and seasonably cool weekend, widespread
precipitation with associated restrictions may return late Sunday
with the next frontal system. Unsettled weather may continue at
times into the middle of next week.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  82%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...Munroe
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
341 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-082045-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
341 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of western North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Breezy to windy southwest winds will develop ahead of an approaching
cold front this evening. Northwest winds will increase rapidly
behind the passing cold front toward daybreak on Friday, with some
gusts above 40 mph likely along the higher ridge tops.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The very gusty northwest winds will persist Friday through Friday
evening, with ridge top gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible at times. A
Wind Advisory could still be needed for portions of the mountains on
Friday if the forecast winds increase any further.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-082045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
341 PM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG