Wind Advisory 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

042 
WWUS72 KGSP 191954
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
254 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...

.Very windy conditions will persist at elevations above 3500 feet
through the afternoon hours and into the early evening hours 
ahead of an approaching cold front. Heavier showers developing 
later today could enhance the wind gusts in a few locations,
including even in the lowest valleys. 

While winds may briefly subside later this evening, a strong cold
front will move across the region after midnight. Winds in the
wake of the front will turn from the northwest and become very
strong and gusty, even in the valleys. Damaging winds will be
possible during the day Sunday, especially along and near the Blue
Ridge escarpment. 

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-200300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.190120T1100Z-190121T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
254 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 7 PM EST
Sunday.

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina Blue Ridge, from Henderson County
  north to Avery County. 

* HAZARDS...Strong to damaging winds. 

* TIMING...Winds will turn from the northwest around daybreak and
  continue through Sunday. The strongest winds are expected from
  shortly after sunrise Sunday into the afternoon hours. 

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Winds
  may gust to 70 mph or more on the higher peaks and ridge tops.
 
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Numerous power outages can be expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Please report damaging winds by calling the National Weather
Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message
with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-200300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190120T0300Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
254 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern 
  mountains of western North Carolina, including the Great Smoky 
  mountains and vicinity.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Winds will remain gusty from the south into the 
  evening before briefly diminishing. Strong, gusty winds will 
  return from the northwest on Sunday and additional Wind 
  Advisories could be needed.

* WINDS...South 10 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down isolated to scattered limbs,
  trees, and power lines. Isolated power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Lane

917 
WWUS72 KGSP 200309
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1009 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS ON 
SUNDAY...

.While winds may briefly subside later this evening, a strong 
cold front will move across the region after midnight. Winds in 
the wake of the front will turn from the northwest and become very
strong and gusty, even in the valleys. Damaging winds will be 
possible during the day Sunday, especially along and near the Blue
Ridge escarpment.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-201115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190120T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.190120T1100Z-190121T0000Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
1009 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a new Wind Advisory above 3500 feet, which is in effect from 6 AM
to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern 
  mountains of western North Carolina, including the Great Smoky 
  mountains and vicinity.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Winds will remain gusty from the south into the evening
  before briefly diminishing. Strong, gusty winds will return from
  the northwest early on Sunday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-201115-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.190120T1100Z-190121T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
1009 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina Blue Ridge, from Henderson 
  County north to Avery County.

* HAZARDS...Strong to damaging winds.

* TIMING...Winds will turn from the northwest around daybreak 
  and continue through Sunday. The strongest winds are expected 
  from shortly after sunrise Sunday into the afternoon hours.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

Please report damaging winds by calling the National Weather
Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message
with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

&&

$$

NCZ048-201115-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.190120T1100Z-190121T0000Z/
Madison-
Including the city of Luck
1009 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory above 3500 feet, which is in effect from 6 AM to
7 PM EST Sunday.

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in Madison County.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Winds will remain gusty from the south into the evening
  before briefly diminishing. Strong, gusty winds will return from
  the northwest early on Sunday morning.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
115 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure will cross Tennessee today and reach New
Jersey early Sunday morning.  The associated strong cold front moves
from west to east across our area tonight. Strong northerly wind on
Sunday will make temperatures feel much colder. The wind will
gradually diminish Sunday night with a clearing sky.  Another low
pressure system is expected to impact the region on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At 1255 AM EST: Water vapor imagery depicts a cyclonic circulation
over the southern plains early this morning, with high
clouds/moisture riding eastward over a downstream ridge axis across
the southeast. At lower levels across the southeast, moist upglide
is filling in rapidly and light radar returns will continue to
increase through daybreak. Low stratus and fog will also be
widespread, but with the clouds hopefully keeping any denser areas
of fog at bay this morning.

The upper wave will lift northeast over the mid-MS River valley
through today and then across the OH Valley tonight. Moist upglide,
and locally enhanced southerly upslope flow in the mountains, will
blossom through the day, with categorical PoPs for rain developing
in most of the area through the afternoon hours. In addition,
mountain winds will ramp up in the warm advection later today with
the arrival of a 50 kt southerly jet. A high elevation Wind Advisory
could be needed for this. The main show appears to be a narrow band
of intense, deep-layer forcing slated to cross the forecast area
centered around 03Z this evening. This will be accompanied by a 50
to 60 kt low-level jet just ahead of the associated surface cold
front. Fortunately, instability looks quite limited, although there
could be some narrow linear features to watch on radar as very
modest surface based instability could get uncovered in the southern
tier. Locally excessive rainfall will be possible tonight, with the
biggest threat in the southern mountain upslope areas where local 2
to 2.5 inch storm QPF totals are possible. A small flood watch may
need to be considered, but stream and river levels are not terribly
high at present.

Snow levels will quickly plunge across the mountains from the west
09Z to 12Z behind the frontal passage. There could be a brief window
of mixed ptypes across the mountains, but with solid snow supported
in the W to NW upslope flow areas from 12Z Sunday morning onward.
The upper trough axis will cross the region from the west circa 18Z
Sunday, and the peak cold advection winds will develop. Another
mountain wind advisory could be needed on the cold advection side of
things, but will handle the warm advection part first this morning.
Outside of the mountains, mid-level dry air will wrap in quickly
Sunday morning to rapidly end PoPs from the west. The northwest flow
upslope snow period will be intense and cold. The short-lived nature
of the event Sunday will be a limiting factor on accumulations, but
there is also strong evidence of a Great Lakes moisture connection
to parcels arriving in the NC mountains. Advisory-level snow
accumulations will be a possibility across the TN border counties
and the higher ridges by late Sunday. A Winter Weather Advisory
could be needed for the NC mountains at some point, particularly
with the flash freeze potential with temperatures falling quickly
into the 20s across the mountains through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EST Friday: From Saturday evening to Sunday evening,
the short term forecast period captures the portion of the forecast
in which a cold front will bring a fairly quick precip transition
from rain to a rain/freezing rain mix across the mountains, before
changing over to all snow and becoming confined to the NC mountains
with NW flow. Across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, do expect all
precipitation to remain rain before tapering off.

At the beginning of the forecast period, expect widespread rain
showers across the FA as latest guidance continues to be in fairly
good agreement with the placement of a sfc low just to the northwest
(around where KY/TN/VA/NC meet), and a cold front very close to the
FA border, as a deepening upper s/w trof continues to propagate
eastward into the Southeast. While fcst soundings do continue to
indicate limited available instability across the Upstate with
additional upper support while still in the warm sector, would not
entirely rule out an isolated embedded thunderstorm - essentially a
non-zero chance. However, potential looks to be less than observed
with previous guidance, and thus given lower confidence, have
removed any mention of thunder attm.

Overnight Saturday into early Sunday, as the cold front pushes
through the area, colder, arctic temperatures will gradually
infiltrate in behind the feature with the return of NW flow. The
heaviest of the precipitation is expected to occur Saturday night,
with the higher amounts expected across the southern mountains
(outlined in WPCs Day 2 Excessive Rainfall). Minor flooding will be
possible, especially with area rivers and streams. After midnight,
as the colder air begins to infiltrate in, QPF drops off fairly
quickly across the entire FA as well. Across the mountains, fcst
soundings are more indicative of a rain/freezing rain/snow
transition (with plenty of dry air aloft), with the freezing rain
window a fairly small one, as temperatures drop quickly, especially
towards daybreak. With flash freeze conditions possible and the
expected wet surfaces, road conditions may become hazardous with
black ice possible. As the transition from rain to frozen precip
occurs and QPF amounts decrease, ice accumulation amounts will be a
thin glaze at most (per this fcst). Snowfall amounts will be light,
with the higher of the amounts (around 1 inch) confined to the TN
border mostly given the transition to a NW flow snow event, as
precipitation continues to taper off eastward to the escarpment.
Across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, expect precipitation to taper
off as all rain by late morning with gradually clearing skies, as
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing (yet
still below normal) on Sunday.

Behind the cold front, gusty northwest winds are expected across the
area on Sunday, with the higher of sustained winds and gusts across
the NC mountains - though all below advisory criteria attm. With
increased winds, however, into Sunday evening, wind chills across
mainly the higher elevations will begin to near 0 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Friday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Monday
with a progressive upper trof moving off the East Coast as broad
upper ridging spreads over the Central CONUS in its wake. The ridge
axis is expected to move over our area on Tues as another deep and
progressive upper trof digs down across the far Southwest CONUS.
The latest guidance has slowed the approach of the trof a bit and
now has it reaching the fcst area a little later on Thurs. The broader
upper trof still lingers over the Eastern CONUS thru Fri and appears
to re-amplify as we go into the weekend.

At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will spreading over the
region from the NW as a Nor'Easter moves up the New England Coast.
Over the next 48 hrs or so, the high will drift SE and is expected
to be centered just off the Atlantic Coast by late Tues/early Wed.
At the same time, another strong low gets ejected out of the Plains
and brings a cold front to our doorstep. As the front approaches the
CWFA on Wed, the models now develop a low over the Gulf Coast and
quickly lift it northward along the frontal bndy. From this point
onward, the models diverge significantly with the 12z ECMWF rapidly
lifting the low up towards New England, while the GFS is about 18
to 24 hrs slower moving the system north of our fcst area. Regardless
of which model solution you choose, the consensus is that some degree
of brief drying is likely on Friday to end the period. As for the
sensible fcst, conditions should be dry as the period begins and
remain dry thru Tues. PoPs gradually ramp up to low-end likely by
late Wed with most of the QPF expected early Thursday. The higher
terrain, especially the northern NC mtns, could get some sct snow
showers early Thurs, but this depends greatly on how quickly the
cold air can wrap around the low. Otherwise, temps start out well
below normal on Monday and warm to just above normal, by Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Ceilings are widely varying this morning as
LIFR expanded early during the evening hours at some sites, while
other sites recovered to VFR under thickening higher clouds. Given
the near-surface moisture, widespread LIFR seems more reasonable for
the rest of the morning hours, with light precipitation gradually
developing from the south in returning upglide. LIFR cigs and IFR to
LIFR visibility in fog should get locked in through the day as the
light rain becomes steadier. Anticipate better rainfall rates
arriving this evening just ahead of the approaching cold front.
Winds will come up out of the SE to S, with gusts developing, and
few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially near KAND, late
this evening. The improved mixing will permit some recovery to MVFR
prior to fropa. Winds will shift westerly near the end of period
with the cold frontal passage.

Outlook: Ceiling and visibility conditions will improve quickly
behind the front on Sunday for locations east of the mountains.
Northwest flow moisture, and perhaps even some snow showers, may
continue at KAVL. Windy conditions and cold temperatures will set up
Sunday into Monday. The next storm system approaches by mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   61%     Med   77%     Low   44%     Low   44%
KGSP       Low   52%     Low   57%     Low   48%     Low   38%
KAVL       Low   54%     Low   58%     Low   53%     Low   34%
KHKY       Low   53%     Med   75%     Low   53%     Low   39%
KGMU       Low   52%     Low   57%     Low   48%     Low   38%
KAND       Low   59%     Med   63%     Low   52%     Low   55%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
454 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-192200-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
454 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front is expected to push through the region early
Sunday, possibly bringing a light accumulation of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain to the mountains. Gusty northwest winds will bring
rapidly falling temperatures. A flash freeze is possible, which could
result in poor road conditions in some areas. The gusty winds will
continue through at least Sunday night. A few downed trees and
powerlines are possible. Low temperatures will be in the single
digits and teens Monday morning. These temperatures, along with the
brisk winds, could support wind chills as cold as 10 degrees below
zero at high elevations. Anyone expecting to be outdoors Monday
morning will need to take precautions to protect exposed skin from
these bitterly cold conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-192200-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
454 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-191300-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Baldwin, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville,
Toccoa, Royston, Whitworth, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon,
Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
Ruckersville, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Westminster, Pumpkintown,
Tigerville, Gowensville, Caesars Head, Cleveland, Marietta,
Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors,
Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg,
Gaffney, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton,
Union, Monarch Mills, Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
243 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...

Abundant low-level moisture and light winds are permitting
patches of dense fog to develop around the Upstate of South
Carolina and extreme northeast Georgia this morning. The fog will
reduce visibility to one-quarter mile or less at times in a few
places. The visibility may vary greatly over short distances. Be
prepared to encounter locally dense fog if traveling in the area
this morning.

Allow extra time to reach your destination. Use low beam
headlights and fog lamps if you encounter dense fog.

HG