Wind Advisory 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

223 
WWUS72 KGSP 160836 CCA
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-162030-
/O.COR.KGSP.WI.Y.0026.191217T0000Z-191217T1200Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
336 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Graham, Northern Jackson, Macon, 
  Southern Jackson and Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A good amount of rainfall will accompany
  the strong winds...so weak or dead trees may become uprooted in
  saturated soils.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Krentz

441 
WWUS72 KGSP 162019
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
319 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-170430-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0026.191217T0000Z-191217T1200Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
319 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Graham, Northern Jackson, Macon, 
  Southern Jackson and Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A good amount of rainfall will accompany 
  the strong winds...so weak or dead trees may become uprooted 
  in saturated soils.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

517 
WWUS72 KGSP 170351
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1051 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-171200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-191217T1200Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
1051 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Graham, Jackson, Macon, and 
  Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...Through 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A good amount of rainfall will accompany 
  the strong winds...so weak or dead trees may become uprooted 
  in saturated soils.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

522 
WWUS72 KGSP 170816
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
316 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-171200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-191217T1200Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
316 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Swain, Haywood, Graham, Jackson, Macon, and 
  Transylvania Counties.

* WHEN...Through 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A good amount of rainfall will accompany 
  the strong winds...so weak or dead trees may become uprooted 
  in saturated soils.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

506 
WWUS72 KGSP 171135
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
635 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-171245-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-191217T1200Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
635 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS 
MORNING...

Wind speeds will continue to diminish across the higher elevations
of the southwestern North Carolina mountains this morning. Gusty
winds will continue through the day, but speeds should remain
below 45 mph.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front with widespread rain is expected to arrive by Tuesday.
High pressure will bring a return to near normal temperatures and
dry conditions for the middle part of the week. Model guidance hints
at a storm system this weekend, but there continues to be large
differences between model guidance on the forecast weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Atlantic ridging continues to dominate the pattern over the FA this
morning while a good amt of llvl GOM moisture spreads in from the
southwest. An h85 inversion has trapped this moisture and StCu
allowing continued sfc mixing within negligible rad cooling.
Thus...temps are running a little abv the fcst curve and are nearly
steady-state while bumping up and down arnd normal levels.

Cloud cover will remain high this afternoon...however good sw/ly
flow and waa will allow temps to reach the lower to mid 60s over
most locales. Meanwhile...an active cold front will slowly advance
toward the NC mtns and begin producing light rainfall across the far
sw/rn BL arnd noon. Expect little rainfall amts thru the daytime
period and it wont be until aft 04z or so when the higher precip
rates associated with frontal forcing set up across the srn mtns.
The front will slow down and align sw-ne aft 06z...which will allow
for decent accums across the far srn BL thru 12z. Wont require a
flood watch...but extreme sw/rn Graham and Macon counties could
receive localized amts near 2 inches leading to minor hydro issues.

Winds across the NC mtns will also increase with the frontal passage
and likely die down by daybreak. Cross sections at KAVL show a 50+
kt llvl jet quickly descending to arnd 4000 ft aft 06z and weakening
by daybreak. So...have issued a wind adv for elevations abv 3500
feet beginning at 00z and ending at 12z Tue. All locales will see
beneficial precip during the overnight with arnd an inch over the NE
GA / western Upstate areas and abt a half an inch over the fthills
and Piedmont regions. Soundings continue to indicate a high amt of
bulk shear...arnd 60 kts aft 06z...while hodos lengthen yet remain
rather straight-lined. Instability will be lacking (arnd 100-200
J/kg)...thus anticipate isol general thunder limited to the far sw/rn
zones...which is in line with the SPC Day1 Outlook. The BL will
remain well mixed overnight...so min temps will once again remain
well abv normal with readings in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM EST Monday: Positively tilted upper trough approaches
the area Tuesday and crosses the area Tuesday night. This trough
pushes a cold front across the area Tuesday. The system is quite
dynamic with lots of forcing. However, there is little in the way of
instability. That said, there will be enough CAPE for isolated
storms along and south of the I-85 corridor. There will be quite a
bit of shear and helicity ahead of the front, but the lack of
instability will keep any severe chances very low. The best
instability occurring in the morning is also a limiting factor. Of
course, we'll have to keep an eye on this as it develops. Heavy
rainfall is also expected during the morning, mainly over NE GA and
the western Upstate. Currently don't expect any widespread flooding
but isolated flooding will be possible.

Precip quickly moves east with the front during the afternoon.
However, lingering moisture and developing NW flow will keep precip
across the mountains into the evening. Good CAA develops behind the
front which will help change the rain to snow across the higher
elevations. Snow levels may drop to the valleys before precip ends
around midnight. Given the short duration and generally high snow
elevations, don't expect any significant accums. Could see up to an
inch in the usual locations above 5000 feet. Gusty winds ahead of
the front turn NW behind it. However, gusts look to remain below
advisory levels with guidance keeping H85 winds below 50 knots.
Gusty winds are expected outside of the mountains as well but mainly
in the breezy range. Highs Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, even with an early high across the mountains. Lows Tuesday
night will be near normal.

High pressure only slowly builds in from the northwest Wednesday and
Wednesday night. This keeps a tight pressure gradient across the
area Wednesday which relaxes Wednesday night. Gusty winds and some
clouds will remain across the mountains with low end gusts during
the day and clear skies elsewhere. Highs Wednesday will be 5 to 10
degrees below normal with lows Wednesday night around 5 degrees
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EST Monday: Low confidence forecast for this period as
the guidance continues to show run to run inconsistency. That said,
the GFS and Canadian have trended toward each other with a faster,
weaker weekend system with cyclogenesis taking place along the SE
Atlantic coast. The ECMWF remains stronger and slower with
cyclogenesis taking place in the Gulf of Mexico with the low
crossing south Florida.

The GFS and ECMWF start with a phased northern and southern stream;
however, the GFS keeps the streams phased as the waves quickly move
east and off shore. The ECMWF has a faster northern stream which
splits off from the southern stream wave which then closes off into
an upper low which slowly crosses the Gulf Coast and Florida.

The guidance agrees that Thursday will be near to 5 degrees below
normal with temps rising to near normal Friday. Both days look to be
dry. The GFS then brings moisture into the area Friday night which
moves east Saturday as a surface low develops off the SE coast and
quickly moves east. The ECMWF also brings moisture in but from the
west Friday night and spreads it across the area Saturday. Moisture
lingers Saturday night then diminishes Sunday as the its low
develops in the Gulf of Mexico and crosses Florida. The GEFS mean is
not as fast with more precip than the operational GFS. Therefore,
have gone with PoP timing closer to the ECMWF but limited to slight
chance given the uncertainty. Temps would be cold enough to indicate
some snow potential; however, the uncertainty means chances are
quite low. Do not expect any significant wintry precip for now.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: An active weather pattern will affect all TAF
sites thru the period. Ceilings are remaining high VFR and will
slowly develop east overnight. Expect a slow lowering cloud trend
during the daytime period with a MVFR CIGS at KAVL aft sunrise when
as a rain shield moves in from the west. Lowering CIGS to MVFR and
possibly IFR will occur by mid afternoon esp west...with TEMPOs
lowering CIGS earlier arnd daybreak. Visibility will remain mainly
VFR with MVFR restrictions expected within precip later this
afternoon thru the period. The rainfall will become more widespread
late in the period with all sites receiving -shra and restrictive
CIGs to end the period.

Outlook: Moisture will remain high across the area associated with
cold front into Tuesday. The front will bring a round of rain
showers, with cig/vis restrictions likely. Drier air and strong
high pressure will set up by midweek.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  81%
KGSP       Med   79%     High  84%     High  93%     Med   78%
KAVL       High  90%     High  97%     High  97%     Med   75%
KHKY       High  89%     High  87%     High 100%     Med   65%
KGMU       High  80%     High  89%     High  86%     Med   79%
KAND       High  89%     High  90%     High 100%     High  82%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
513 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-161015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
513 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.