Wind Advisory 22, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

338 
WWUS72 KGSP 231821
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
121 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-240230-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.191124T0500Z-191124T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
121 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of NC, including the escarpment 
  areas of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell counties, especially 
  above 3500 ft.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

908 
WWUS72 KGSP 231956
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-240400-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.191124T0500Z-191124T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
256 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of NC, including the escarpment 
  areas of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell counties, especially 
  above 3500 ft.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow is expected at the high
  elevations late tonight and early Sunday as well...with a
  possible accumulation of 1-3 inches above 5000 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

519 
WWUS72 KGSP 232359
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
659 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-241000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.191124T0500Z-191124T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
659 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of NC, including the escarpment 
  areas of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell counties, especially 
  above 3500 ft.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow is expected at the high
  elevations late tonight and early Sunday as well, with a 
  possible accumulation of 1-3 inches above 5000 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

790 
WWUS72 KGSP 241017
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
517 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-241700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-191124T1700Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
517 AM EST Sun Nov 24 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, including the
  escarpment areas of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell counties, 
  especially above 3500 ft.

* WHEN...Through noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow is expected at the high
  elevations early this morning as well, with a possible
  accumulation of 1-2 inches above 5000 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
100 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region later tonight and tomorrow,
bringing widespread showers to the area. Cool high pressure then returns
on Sunday and lingers through early next week. Another cold front is
expected to cross the area towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 945 PM EST: The backdoor surface front has moved very near
the NC/SC border late this evening, with about a 10 degree
temperature gradient setting up from locations in the lower 50s
north of I-40 and lower 60s still around the Savannah River. Expect
some slight wobble or southward settling of the front overnight,
however, it remains rather questionable how far across the SC
Upstate it will penetrate. Hourly temperatures still appear in line
with the latest forecast. Deeper forcing remains quite limited east
of the mountains, so will focus the main PoP uptick early overnight
across the mountains, and then spread rain/shower quickly across the
foothills and piedmont through the morning hours as isentropic lift
rapidly improves ahead of the very progressive 500 mb low moving
across the central CONUS.

The model guidance continues to bring a sfc high center over
Virginia by daybreak. This should reinforce the wedge front and set
up hybrid cold air damming for Saturday. The steadier precip will
spread east ahead of the primary sfc low and along the nascent wedge
boundary, helping to further establish the wedge. The pattern
remains progressive, so the sfc high over the Mid-Atlantic region
will continue to move offshore and weaken support for the wedge in
the afternoon. Will this allow the boundary to drift back northward
to the I-85 corridor - if it ever makes it farther south than that?
The models are suggesting that we could get some weak instability
that would creep into the south/southeast fringe of the fcst area in
the late afternoon as the boundary lifts while low-level shear
increases. The confidence in this happening is low...for example the
21Z SREF prob of CAPE > 500 J/kg is on the order of 20 pct in the
lower piedmont. It remains possible that a high shear/low CAPE setup
could result for the late day hours, but it looks more likely that
we'll see a good soaking rain helped by the extra low-level forcing
over the top of the weak wedge and the mechanical lift afforded by
the SW upslope flow. Most places would get an inch of rain, but 2-3
inches are possible in the southwest mtns and upper French Broad
Valley. This is not enough for us to entertain any Flood Watches at
this point. Max temps should be generally at or below normal owing
to the clouds and precip, but might make it above normal across the
Lakelands if the boundary stays to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 pm Friday: Frontal band, with attendant low-end hydro and
high shear/low CAPE convective threats will be crossing the forecast
area at the start of the period. Pops will quickly become confined
to the TN border area by 06Z Sunday, by which time post-frontal
NW/uplope flow will become the primary impetus for precip
generation. Snow levels will also be falling quickly within cold
advection regime, allowing any NW flow-induced showers to transition
to snow showers late Sat night/early Sunday, especially above 3000
ft or so. Light snow accumulations will be possible along the TN
border above about 5000 ft by the time the moisture depletes and
shower activity wanes Sunday morning. The rest of the short term
will be dry. Seasonably cool conditions are expected through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 pm Friday: A quasi-zonal/progressive flow regime at the
start of the period will evolve into a highly amplified pattern by
the end of next week, as a central Conus ridge builds downstream of
a very deep trough/upper low along the West Coast.

The medium range will start off dry and seasonably cool. Pops then
increase a bit for mid-week, as a cyclone lifts from the southern
Great Plains into the Great Lakes, pushing an attendant frontal
boundary toward the East Coast. Current indications are that precip
chances will not be especially high with this feature, as it becomes
increasingly stretched in a E/W orientation in response to the next
round of central Conus height falls, while deep forcing associated
with the Great Lakes cyclone passes well north of the area. As such,
only token 20-40 pops will be carried late Tue through Wed.

Global model discrepancies increase for the late week period, with
the GFS spreading upglide precip over the Southeast Wed night, while
the ECMWF and Canadian GEM maintain dry conditions with their
stronger/more expansive surface high. Uncertainty is high enough
that token small pops will be continued Wed night through the end of
the week.

Temps will begin the period near-to-above normal, then return to
slightly below normal levels in the wake of the front for late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For KCLT and elsewhere: Conditions should continue to deteriorate
thru the overnight, as an area of low pressure approaches from the
west. A backdoor cold front is still expected to slip thru all the
sites (except maybe KAND) by daybreak. This will shift wind over to
NE across the piedmont sites and SE at KAVL. Weak cold air damming
will set up, and help lock in low cigs (generally IFR, but could be
LIFR at times) today. Widespread light to moderate rain will spread
in from west to east during the pre-dawn hours with peak
rates/coverage during the late morning thru the aftn hours. It still
looks like instability will be lacking for anything more than
isolated thunder, so no TS mention will be carried in any of the 06z
TAFs. But the southern sites from KAND to KCLT have the best chance
of some thunder in the 21-03z time frame. Precip should start to
move out this evening, as a cold front passes thru. Winds will stay
light ENE on the north side of a wedge front today, but the front
should lift north and bring winds around out of the SE, except at
KHKY. Then winds shift to W/NW behind the front and increase at all
sites, with gusty conditions at KAVL late this evening.

Outlook: Dry high pressure and VFR conditions will return behind a
departing cold front Sunday. VFR conditions should persist through
early next week before another front crosses the region mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  93%     High  82%     Med   79%     High  83%
KGSP       Med   78%     High  85%     High  88%     Med   78%
KAVL       Med   66%     High  80%     High  86%     Med   78%
KHKY       High  93%     High  82%     Med   78%     Med   73%
KGMU       High  85%     Med   79%     High  88%     High  85%
KAND       Med   72%     Med   78%     High  81%     High  93%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1029 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505>507-509-510-
SCZ001>003-240330-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1029 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Widespread rainfall is expected Saturday in association with a
passing cold front and low-pressure system. Localized heavy rainfall
in excess of 2 inches is possible and isolated nuisance flooding may
result, especially for common, flood-prone areas of the southern
mountains of North Carolina and northeast Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-240330-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1029 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina including the Charlotte metro area, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Widespread rainfall is expected on Saturday, with isolated
thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and
ahead of a passing cold front. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are
the primary hazards, but a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.
Nuisance flooding could develop in normally poor drainage and flood
prone areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-508-240330-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Greater Rutherford-
1029 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and northwest
Piedmont of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Widespread rainfall is expected on Saturday, and the rain could be
heavy at times, especially across the foothills. Isolated, nuisance
flooding could develop in normally poor drainage and flood prone
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG