Wind Advisory 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

903 
WWUS72 KGSP 311539
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1139 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-312200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0021.191031T2200Z-191101T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1139 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures will
  dip into the upper 20s. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds
  20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, and McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  EDT Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 8 
  AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-312200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, 
and Etowah
1139 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures will dip into the upper 20s 
  to lower 30s.

* WHERE...The central and southern mountains of western North 
  Carolina, as well as the northeast Georgia mountains.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected 
  outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

HG/RM

809 
WWUS72 KGSP 311846
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-010300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0021.191031T2200Z-191101T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
246 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures will 
  dip into the upper 20s. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 
  20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, and McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  EDT Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 8 
  AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-010300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, 
and Etowah
246 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures will dip into the upper 20s 
  to lower 30s.

* WHERE...The central and southern mountains of western North 
  Carolina, as well as the northeast Georgia mountains.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected 
  outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

853 
WWUS72 KGSP 312331
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
731 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-010845-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-191101T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
731 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures will 
  dip into the upper 20s. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 
  20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, and McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  EDT Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 8 
  AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-010845-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.191101T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, 
and Etowah
731 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures will dip into the upper 20s 
  to lower 30s.

* WHERE...The central and southern mountains of western North 
  Carolina, as well as the northeast Georgia mountains.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected 
  outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

851 
WWUS72 KGSP 010745
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
345 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-011400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-191101T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
345 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Freeze Warning, sub-freezing temperatures will 
  dip into the upper 20s. For the Wind Advisory, northwest winds 
  20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains, and McDowell Mountains.

* WHEN...For the Freeze Warning, from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM 
  EDT Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from 6 PM this evening to 8 
  AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and other 
  sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor 
  plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-011400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0004.000000T0000Z-191101T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, Mars Hill, 
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, 
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, 
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, 
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, 
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, 
and Etowah
345 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures will dip into the upper 20s 
  to lower 30s.

* WHERE...The central and southern mountains of western North 
  Carolina, as well as the northeast Georgia mountains.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops and 
  other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected 
  outdoor plumbing.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing temperatures could create 
  slippery surfaces and roadways where moisture lingers from the 
  earlier rainfall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent
freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should
be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have
in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above-
ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-011545-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-
Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Boydville, Toccoa, Royston, Lavonia, 
Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, 
Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville, Bethlehem, Ellendale, 
Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, 
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, 
Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, 
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Seneca, 
Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, Greer, 
Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg, Gaffney, 
Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, 
Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, 
Ware Shoals, and Ninety Six
345 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost 
  formation.

* WHERE...Portions of Upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia 
  and piedmont and western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if 
  left uncovered.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front sweeps across the area from the west this
afternoon and evening with heavy rainfall and strong to severe
thunderstorms possible.  The cold front will push east of the area
tonight.  Behind the front high pressure will usher in much cooler
and drier conditions, with temperatures falling below freezing
across the mountains Friday night.  Cool and dry conditions will
persist through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT: A very active day with regard to severe
weather and localized heavy rainfall is still expected across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia today. Then, windy
conditions and freezing temperatures will be a concern in mountains
tonight. The setup early this morning includes a deep plume of
moisture feeding into the forecast area from the western/central
Gulf of Mexico. A closed low pressure system emerging from the
Plains is pushing into the Midwest, and the associated surface cold
front is racing eastward through central TN and western AL. Closer
to home, any remnant of a wedge frontal boundary continues to lift
northward early this morning, with improving southerly flow now
reaching the I-40 corridor. Any vestige of a surface stable layer
should quickly wrap north of the area through daybreak. Shower
coverage should blossom again from the southwest through daybreak.

Conditions will deteriorate quickly today as the approaching cold
front reaches the southwest mountains by Noon, moves east into the
foothills in the early to middle afternoon, and then races through
the I-77 corridor late in the day. Upper jet divergence will
increase sharply over the cold front, with the associated strong
forcing overcoming any limitations from the modest mid-level lapse
rates. Expect the southerly low-level jet to easily reach 50 kt by
mid-morning, and then stay around 50 or better through the afternoon
hours until the front arrives. Model consensus surface positive
bouyant energy runs about 1000 to 1500 J/kg ahead of the cold front
this afternoon, especially in the eastern half, and deep-layer bulk
shear values should reach 50 kt. Some 30 to 40 kt of bulk shear
could be concentrated in the lowest 1 km, especially across the
western NC foothills and piedmont, and the latest Day One Slight and
Enhanced Risks look well-placed. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat with the main, solidifying convective line this
afternoon, but a few tornadoes will be possible. Regarding heavy
rainfall, the current, limited Flood Watch looks well placed given
the expected fast movement of the main convective line this
afternoon. No changes are planned for the Flood Watch.

The cold fropa will usher subfreezing 850 mb temps in quickly across
the mountains by 00Z this evening, with freezing temperatures
arriving rapidly at the surface overnight. An NC mountain/GA
mountain freeze warning will be posted for tonight, with
frost/freeze products then discontinued across the mountains on
Friday. Northwest flow upslope moisture will also wring out some
snow showers at the higher elevations tonight before drying up
quickly toward daybreak Friday. Will limit any dustings of snow late
tonight to the highest ridgetops of the Smokies and around Mount
Mitchell/Beech Mtn tonight. Finally, the gradient in the cold
advection flow will be strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory in
the northern NC mountains, with winds ramping up after sunset
tonight and diminishing slightly toward daybreak Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 am Thursday: As the period begins on Friday morning,
the upper low responsible for the active weather across our area
on Thursday will be rapidly departing the northeast U.S. as a
shortwave trough digs into the Great Plains underneath a
developing longwave trough. The trough axis will propagate east
in progressive fashion through the period, and the attendant
reinforcing cold front will have zero opportunity to tap into
any moisture as it approaches our area Saturday afternoon. The
front should clear our area early Saturday night with another
high pressure center building into our area to end the period
Sunday morning.

Therefore, with no moisture to work with, the main weather story
for the short-term will be the cooler temperatures resulting
from the initial cold-air advection behind the first front and
a reinforcing shot of cold air behind the second front Saturday
night.  Expect highs to be a solid 7-9 degrees below normal
on Friday and 6-8 degrees below normal on Saturday.  With high
pressure building in on Friday, expect surface winds to weaken to
light and variable if not calm and set us up for widespread frost
potential Friday night into Saturday morning east of the mountains
as low temperatures should bottom out between 33-38 degrees over a
large portion of the Piedmont and Foothills.  While mountain low
temperatures for Friday night will be a bit warmer than Thursday
night's lows (near freezing), the second frontal passage later
Saturday will usher in a new round of CAA and lows Saturday night
should drop several degrees below freezing again for the mountains,
with widespread 33-36 degree lows east.  However, winds may be a
bit elevated Saturday night behind the front and frost development
may be more confined to sheltered areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 335 am EDT Thursday: Model guidance is in fairly good
agreement regarding a broad longwave trough over the majority of
ConUS into early next week, with divergence developing between
the GFS and the ECMWF/Canadian solutions heading into Tuesday
due to differences in the handling of southern stream energy.
The EC/Canadian camp phase the northern and southern stream jets
across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, producing enough
lift over persistent surface ridging to cause isentropic showers
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday whereas the GFS remains
dry due to a lack of forcing. Either way, we are not expecting
significant impacts with this energy. There is a bit better
agreement that another cold front will approach the area towards
the end of the period late Thursday into Friday with another
interaction of northern and southern jet streams across the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys, but again, the pattern remains fairly
zonal and without significant amplification, we are not
concerned about appreciable moisture flux and any significant
rainfall. Therefore, a comparatively quieter week ahead is
expected at this time.

Sunday afternoon should have our coldest high temperatures, maxing
out about 6-8 degrees below normal with surface high pressure
centered near our area.  Sunday night into Monday morning, lows
will once again range from 33-36 degrees east of the mountains,
but winds should be light or calm, suggesting better potential for
widespread frost when compared to Sunday night.  Thereafter, as the
high pressure center moves offshore, we remain within a weak ridge
but lose our cold air source and winds gradually veer to southerly
by late week.  Therefore, highs gradually moderate to near normal
if not 1-3 degrees above normal Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Shower coverage should be sufficient to
carry categorical light rain showers across the terminal forecast
area this morning in the very moist airmass ahead of the approaching
front over central TN. With any residual surface stable layer
gradually scattering out in the improving southerly flow, anticipate
mainly MVFR to low end VFR visibility this morning, but with IFR to
LIFR cigs being fairly persistent. The IFR ceiling restrictions will
persist through much of the day despite the breezy to windy
conditions developing as the front pushes in the from the west this
afternoon. KCLT will see the best chance of MVFR cigs before the
convection arrives. Expect robust SSW to SW wind gusts throughout
ahead of the cold front. Vsby reductions to IFR will occur mainly in
the heavier showers and thunderstorms. Will also feature afternoon
PROBs for TSRA and strong wind gusts around the time of arrival of
the main convective line just ahead of the cold front. Conditions
will improve rapidly to VFR with the fropa this evening, and gusty
winds will continue as they shift to W or NW.

Outlook: VFR conds with lighter winds are expected to prevail Friday
through much of the weekend. Overnight mountain valley fog each
morning may be the exception.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       High  87%     Med   77%     High  81%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   79%     Med   77%     High  90%     High 100%
KAVL       High  87%     Med   75%     Med   71%     High 100%
KHKY       High  87%     High  86%     High  87%     High 100%
KGMU       High  83%     Med   71%     High  90%     High 100%
KAND       High  83%     Med   75%     High  81%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     GAZ010-017.
     Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017.
NC...Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ051-052-058-059-
     062>065.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1132 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ004>014-019-010345-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-
Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1132 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall will occur across the region overnight
ahead of an approaching cold front. In addition, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will begin to develop from the south during
the early morning hours. Gusty winds, occasional cloud-to-ground
lightning, and locally very heavy rainfall will accompany any
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold
front crossing the region from the west Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. These thunderstorms may become strong, especially
east of the mountains during the afternoon hours. Frequent cloud-to-
ground lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours can be
expected with any of these thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may
produce damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out. The greatest chance of severe thunderstorms will likely be over
the Piedmont, especially near the Interstate 77 corridor late
Thursday.

Freezing temperatures may return to the mountains Thursday night,
with frost conditions possibly impacting much of the area over the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>003-010345-
Rabun-Habersham-Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1132 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, the southern mountains of western North Carolina, and the
Upstate South Carolina mountains.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will begin to develop from the
south during the early morning hours. These storms may bring gusty
winds, occasional cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally very heavy
rainfall to the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold
front crossing the region from the west Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. These thunderstorms may become strong. Frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and torrential downpours can
be expected with any of these thunderstorms. A few of the thunderstorms
may produce damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out.

Freezing temperatures may return to the mountains Thursday night,
with frost conditions possibly impacting much of the area over the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1154 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

NCZ068-508-310430-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-
1154 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

At 1153 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms
along a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Forest City to 9
miles west of Shelby to 9 miles northwest of Gaffney, and moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Boiling Springs NC, Belwood, Lawndale,
Patterson Springs, Fallston, Polkville, Ellenboro and Lattimore.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates in excess of
one inch per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8157 3556 8152 3555 8151 3552 8151
      3542 8146 3536 8141 3533 8136 3531 8137
      3528 8136 3526 8132 3522 8134 3517 8153
      3518 8181 3527 8176 3547 8187 3557 8167
      3556 8166 3557 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 245DEG 24KT 3543 8178 3530 8171 3517 8178

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1249 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NCZ036-056-069-310515-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
1249 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT
CATAWBA...CENTRAL IREDELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1248 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms
along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Newton to 7 miles
northwest of Lincolnton to 12 miles northeast of Shelby, and moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Newton, Lincolnton, Conover, Maiden, Westport, Troutman,
Claremont, Catawba and Lake Norman.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates in excess of
one inch per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 8080 3574 8078 3551 8087 3551 8091
      3548 8095 3541 8119 3542 8141 3551 8137
      3566 8139 3579 8113 3578 8111 3580 8108
      3583 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 244DEG 40KT 3560 8136 3552 8135 3542 8139

HG