Wind Advisory 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

317 
WWUS72 KGSP 261521
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1121 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

NCZ033-049-050-262000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
1121 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Through 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-063-262000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
1121 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Higher elevations above 3500 feet in Madison, Swain, 
  Haywood, Buncombe, Graham, Jackson, and Macon Counties.

* WHEN...Through 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane

501 
WWUS72 KGSP 262021
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
421 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

NCZ033-049-050-270830-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
421 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds generally 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 
  45 mph. High elevations will see gusts above 50 mph at times 
  overnight.

* WHERE...Yancey, Avery and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062-063-270830-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Luck, Waynesville, Tuckasegee, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, and Highlands
421 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Buncombe, Swain, Madison, Southern Jackson, 
  Macon, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
08

255 
WWUS72 KGSP 270711
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
311 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-270900-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T0900Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
311 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Buncombe, Swain, Madison, Southern Jackson, 
  Macon, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-270900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
311 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds generally 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to
  45 mph. High elevations will see gusts above 50 mph at times
  early this morning.

* WHERE...Yancey, Avery and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-053-270900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Madison-Buncombe-
311 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Buncombe, Swain, Madison, Southern Jackson, 
  Macon, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

602 
WWUS72 KGSP 270850
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-271000-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T0900Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING ABOVE
3500 FEET...

The threat of gusty winds has shifted east of the area.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-271200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
and Poplar
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds generally 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 
  45 mph. High elevations will see gusts above 40 mph at times 
  early this morning.

* WHERE...Yancey, Avery and Mitchell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ048-053-271200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-191027T1200Z/
Madison-Buncombe-
450 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Haywood, Buncombe, Swain, Madison, Southern Jackson, 
  Macon, Graham and Northern Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
219 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnant circulation of Post Tropical Cyclone Olga will
move northward west of the Appalachians today as it becomes absorbed
by a strong low pressure system in the Plains. A trailing cold front
will then move into the southern Appalachians tonight, along with
abundant tropical moisture and upper level energy. The front will
move east of the area on Sunday, with dry high pressure returning on
Monday. Moisture begins to return ahead of the next vigorous system
through mid week, with another front likely to arrive by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT: Water vapor imagery shows a deep, closed,
extratropical low pressure system spinning over TX/OK early this
morning. This system is beginning to absorb Post Tropical System
Olga near the Louisiana Gulf Coast. An associated deep fetch of
tropical moisture has set up across the Deep South, and this is
poised to impact our region through the near term period, primarily
tonight. Until then, precipitation coverage may relax a bit early
this morning as forcing become rather weak in and near the southern
Appalachians, with mainly light rain falling in the southerly
upslope zones. Anticipate strengthening southeast flow through the
day to permit the coverage and intensity of the showers to return in
the southeasterly upslope areas later today. Like yesterday, will
feature above climo temperatures in eastern sections where the
clouds may see more breaks and precipitation is rather unlikely
through late day.

The southern tier closed system will lift northeast through the
Midwest today and reach the Great Lakes by late tonight. Well east
of the system, 850 mb winds will increase to 50 kt or better across
the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, and a Wind Advisory
could be needed for elevations above 3500 feet in the NC mountains
today through tonight. Upper divergence east of the approaching jet
axis aloft will increase rapidly over the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas this evening as deeper moisture arrives, and
precipitation rates along the eastern escarpment will gradually
become a bigger concern. Since the heaviest rainfall affected mainly
Graham Co. and the Smokies vicinity on Friday, it appears that the
eastern escarpment should be able to absorb the roughly 1 to 3 inch
totals expected for tonight. Isolated hydro problems may develop
overnight, but a Flood Watch does not appear needed at present.

Our area is in the gap between the Day 1 and Day 2 Marginal
Convective Outlooks. However, we should see roughly 40 to 45 kt of
deep layer bulk shear arriving from the west overnight, and nearly
all models have at least a few hundred J/kg of sbCAPE uncovered in
the warm nocturnal airmass. So, severe weather cannot be ruled out
despite the unfavorable timing for our area and meager HREF updraft
helicity values. Anticipate the gradually decaying line arriving in
the southwest mountains early overnight and then possibly moving
east of the escarpment around daybreak, collocated with the best
upper forcing. Strong to damaging winds will be the main threat,
with an isolated tornado possible wherever low-level flow strongly
backs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM: Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes
region Saturday night, with cold-air damming initially in place
across the Mid-Atlantic. The CAD erosion process will begin as the
baroclinic zone atop the wedge follows the high northward, and the
wedge boundary has an opportunity to shift north. In reality,
without a good scouring mechanism, this is more likely to occur
after daybreak Sunday, though some guidance does suggest the wedge
will mix out over the far southern zones as early as the wee hours
of Sunday morning. Surface-based instability is expected to quickly
develop in the wake of the wedge. The cold front will move across
the southern Appalachians sometime Sunday morning, potentially
pushing into the Piedmont in the afternoon; low-level shear
parameters continue to point to a damaging wind threat where the
instability is present ahead of the fropa.  Confidence is greatest
on this occurrence more or less southeast of I-85. A slight chance
or chance of thunder has been added to these areas to match
consensus CAPE progs. Unfortunately we continue to notice relatively
significant timing differences with the front, with the EC being
earlier and faster, essentially clearing the area by 18z, compared
to the NAM which suggests the front will not have made much progress
into the Piedmont by then. SPC Day 2 outlook includes a Marginal
Risk up into our Savannah River Valley for the early-morning threat,
but the Day 3 does not yet include a risk area due to the
questionable timing.

On another note, WPC QPF guidance has ticked upward this cycle along
the Blue Ridge Escarpment, an area that will see enhanced mechanical
forcing as the LLJ shifts across Saturday night. They continue to
include that area in a Marginal Risk, which now seems appropriate
given the expectation of greater than 2" in the 12 hour Saturday
night period. Localized hydrologic issues could develop there in the
late overnight or morning. On another another note, the presence of
the wedge has prompted a nondiurnal temp fcst Saturday night, with
mins more than 20 degrees above normal in most places (the record
High Mins are slightly warmer than our current fcst, though).
Downsloping flow and return of sunshine will bring max temps
significantly above normal Sunday aftn.

The rest of the short term period is expected to be quiet and most
likely dry. The cold front should push out of the area by late Sunday
afternoon, and generally now depicted as stalling far enough south to
advertise partly-cloudy skies and unmentionably low PoPs Sunday night
and Monday. Temps will fall back to "only" 10-13 degrees above normal
for Monday morning, rising again 5-7 above normal Mon aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday: Confidence in the ext range fcst remains low.
The latest model runs continue to show disparity in their respective
solns due to a complex pattern involving Pac energy interacting with
developing CONUS h5 trof. Many differences are noted in all models.
The CMC is the slowest and GFS the fastest while details wrt the
sensible fcst are sigfnt across the SE region. The individual
guidance begins the period out of phase with each other. The GFS has
a stg Pac zonal jet pushing it/s ulvl trof quickly east...while the
other op models close off a low over the Rockies and slow down.
Needless to say...the sfc pattern evolution is quite uncertain thru
the period as well. So...will weight the fcst with the WPC
guidance...which favors an ECMWF/EPS blend.

Tues looks to be the driest day with stalled frontal band remaining
to the SE of the FA and the upper forcing well to the west. The GFS
is showing a moist inverted trof developing...while the dichotomous
ECMWF generates a wedge. So...will expect decent cloud cover and a
tricky temp fcst based on the eventual sfc flow. Things moisten up
Wed as the large-scale pattern favors increasing dyno lift impinging
upon the FA while the column becomes more saturated. A fairly stable
airmass shud remain over the region Tues into Wed...but by Wed
afternoon the wedge front could become a focusing zone for isol/sct
tstm development. The best chance for more widespread rainfall will
be Thu as the models have a highly wet pattern for different reasons
as the GFS maintains a pre-frontal trof and the ECMWF increases
deep-layered moisture flux atop a shallow sfc wedge. After abv
normal temps Tue...the trend will be down as some sort of unsettled
and likely very moist pattern persists. Highs on Wed will reach arnd
normal levels and then drop a cat or so below normal on Thu. Min
temps will be held abt 10 degrees abv normal Tue/Wed nights with
possibly clearing skies Thu night allowing temps to a drop little
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread lowering VFR cigs will become MVFR
east of the mountains today as moisture deepens and southeasterly
upslope flow increases. The main exceptions will be KAVL, where IFR
cigs are already locked into place, and KCLT, where MVFR will take
much of the day to develop and possibly not form until evening.
Light rain showers today will impact mainly KAVL, but with moderate
to heavy showers spreading into the foothill and piedmont sites from
the west tonight. Anticipate flow turning from NE to more SE with
time, and becoming gusty with modest mixing. Low end gusts appear
possible, but the stronger gusts would affect mainly the higher
elevations. Upstate TAF sites and KCLT will see a better thunder
chance late tonight with the arrival of the front and the better
upper forcing.

Outlook: The passing cold front will slowly move east of the region
on Sunday, with morning thunderstorms possibly lingering - perhaps
into the afternoon at KCLT. Drier high pressure will arrive on
Monday, but with moisture slowly returning again through mid week,
and then a strong late week front perhaps bringing more
restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High  93%     High  81%
KGSP       High  94%     High  80%     High  82%     Med   61%
KAVL       Med   77%     Med   74%     High  82%     High  81%
KHKY       High  97%     High  86%     High  84%     High  86%
KGMU       High  99%     High  83%     High  84%     Low   59%
KAND       High 100%     High  83%     High  82%     Low   52%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-
261100-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
359 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong and moist southeasterly flow is expected to develop ahead of
a cold front late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will
support heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms at times focused near
the escarpment and adjacent mountains beginning Saturday evening
with localized flooding possible. In addition to the rain, gusty
southerly winds are likely along the ridgetops, especially near the
Tennessee border where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
508-510-SCZ004>014-019-261100-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-
359 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.