Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2019
Wind Advisory 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Apr 25, 2019, 3:10 PM EDT for 28 counties in North Carolina; 4 counties in South Carolina; Habersham County, Rabun County, Georgia. It took effect at Apr 26, 2019, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 25, 2019, 3:10 PM EDT (19:10 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 26, 2019, 11:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 26, 2019, 10:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
All 34 counties
Habersham County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2099 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -83 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
214 WWUS72 KGSP 251910 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING... .As a cold front pushes through the area from west to east beginning Friday morning, expect a tightening pressure gradient behind this feature to allow for gusty northwesterly across the North Carolina and South carolinas mountains, as well as portions of northeast Georgia late Friday morning through Friday evening. Gusts are expected to subside and fall below criteria into Friday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-260315- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.190426T1500Z-190427T0000Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 310 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday. * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late Friday morning through Friday evening, peaking Friday afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ SGL
4 follow-up statements
421 WWUS72 KGSP 260309 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING... .As a cold front pushes through the area from west to east beginning Friday morning, expect a tightening pressure gradient behind this feature to allow for gusty northwesterly across the North Carolina and South carolinas mountains, as well as portions of northeast Georgia late Friday morning through Friday evening. Gusts are expected to subside and fall below criteria into Friday night as the pressure gradient relaxes. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-261115- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.190426T1500Z-190427T0000Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late Friday morning through Friday evening, peaking Friday afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ SBK
241 WWUS72 KGSP 260843 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 443 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA today... .As a cold front pushes through the area from west to east this morning, expect a tightening pressure gradient to allow for gusty northwesterly across the North and South Carolina mountains, as well as portions of northeast Georgia late this morning through this evening. Gusts are expected to subside and fall below criteria tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-261645- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.190426T1500Z-190427T0000Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 443 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late this morning through this evening, peaking this afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$
558 WWUS72 KGSP 261532 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1132 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY... .As a cold front pushes through the area from west to east, expect a tightening pressure gradient to allow for gusty northwesterly winds across the North and South Carolina mountains, as well as portions of northeast Georgia late this morning through this evening. Gusts are expected to subside and fall below criteria tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-262345- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190427T0000Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 1132 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late this morning through this evening, peaking this afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$
177 WWUS72 KGSP 262111 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 511 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING... .Advancing strong Canadian high pressure will create a tightening pressure gradient and allow for gusty northwesterly winds across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia through the evening. Gusts are expected to subside later tonight. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ007>009-013- 014-270200- /O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190427T0200Z/ Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston- Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke- Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Chester- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, and Great Falls 511 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late this morning through this evening, peaking this afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509- SCZ001>003-270200- /O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190427T0200Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains- McDowell Mountains-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland 511 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...North Carolina mountains, South Carolinas mountains, and portions of northeast Georgia. * HAZARDS...Gusty northwest winds. * TIMING...Late this morning through this evening, peaking this afternoon. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power lines. Scattered power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Krentz
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Apr 25, 3:04 PM EDT, 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 3:04 PM EDT, 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
304 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance pushing into the region will lead to scattered shower
and thunderstorm activity through Friday. A ridge building aloft
will support generally quiet weather this weekend into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday: A Wind Advisory has been issued with this
forecast package for Friday afternoon into Friday evening for
portions of western NC, the SC mountains, and portions of northeast
GA.
With sfc high pressure offshore and ridging aloft ahead of the next
approaching system, conditions have been fairly quiet across the
area today, with gradually increasing cloud cover, and isolated
showers/patchy drizzle (with plenty of precipitation not reaching
the ground per obs). Despite cloud cover, with SW flow, temperatures
have managed to climb into the low to mid 70s, with a few locations
nearing the 80 degrees mark. Do expect temperatures to climb a few
more degrees before capping off for the day.
Into tonight, isolated showers and increasing clouds will continue
with upper southern stream troughing pushing eastward. Latest
guidance continues to prog one sfc low pressure system moving into
the OH Valley while another sfc low pressure ejects out of the TN
Valley into Friday, allowing for it's associated cold front to
approach the area from the west, and slowly push across the
mountains beginning Friday morning. Through into Friday afternoon,
as notable bulk shear (~40 kt) and CAPE (600-1000 J/kg) values come
into play across our area, along with dewpoints nearing 60s degrees
outside the mountains, timing will remain a key factor of these
parameters lining up to create an overall favorable environment for
potentially severe thunderstorms. The more impressive northern
stream trough is progged by latest guidance to swing through
overhead Friday afternoon, as it begins to negatively tilt before
moving offshore. With the FA well in the warm sector ahead of this
system, anticipate the increasing potential for isolated severe
weather to arrive into Friday afternoon with the upper trough
pushing through, with the primary threat being damaging winds. With
showers and isolated thunderstorms expanding from west to east
through the morning hours, the CAMs continue to suggest the better
timeframe for potentially strong thunderstorms to be in the
afternoon hours, as the line of storms reaches the I-77 corridor.
Though, the better potential for severe weather looks to remain east
of the area, as noted by the slight risk from SPC across the eastern
Carolinas, a few severe thunderstorms cannot be rule out across our
area. Thus, a majority of the area remains under the general
thunderstorm outlook, with a marginal risk highlighted towards the I-
77 corridor. High temperatures on Friday will climb into the low to
mid 70s across the area, cooler across the mountains.
Along with showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, the
other note of interest on Friday will be the increasing gusty winds
with the notable 850mb jet/tightening pressure gradient. Anticipate
SW winds and wind gusts to become W then NW behind the front, and to
reach advisory criteria across the western portions of the FA, thus
a wind advisory will go into effect late Friday morning. Elsewhere,
gusty winds are expected in the afternoon, tapering off into Friday
evening with the relaxing pressure gradient. Expect the cold front
to exit the FA to the east by Friday evening, with showers and
thunderstorms quickly dissipating behind it.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thu: Friday night into Saturday, heights will rise
behind the departing shortwave, and quasi-zonal flow will develop
across the CWFA. Sfc high pressure will move across the Southeast
supporting dry conditions and suppressing diurnal convection Saturday
afternoon, even over the high terrain. Max temps will trend upward a
little from Friday.
While upper flow turns slightly cyclonic Saturday night and
especially Sunday as the next shortwave and attendant sfc low tracks
just to our north, heights actually continue to trend upward. The
cyclonic flow does aid development of some elevated showers/storms
across the Ohio Valley, which might make a run at our CWFA overnight.
The shortwave axis will have shifted east of the area by peak
heating, but the cold front trailing the sfc low is expected to be
just reaching the NC/TN border around that time. Prog soundings from
most model sources are not particularly supportive of convection
across most of the CWFA, featuring poor low-level lapse rates that
serve as a cap. The NAM is the exception, keeping profiles uncapped
and showing SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Winds however will have
largely veered to downslope, which could limit convective initiation
and may explain the small model QPF response, even on the NAM. All of
this is important due to the abundant midlevel dry air, which implies
a severe downburst threat if storms did materialize. Thus model
trends for Sunday's convective potential need to be monitored
closely, despite the largely dry fcst attm. Temps will continue to
warm, with maxes near 80 for most of the Piedmont and foothills, and
possibly even some of the lower mountain valleys.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thu: High pressure will shift from the Eastern Seaboard
out into the Atlantic Monday, while an upper ridge builds over the
Southeast through Tuesday. This leaves the region in a fairly
seasonable and warm pattern thru the medium range period. 850-700mb
lapse rates initially will be weak while the aforementioned sfc/upper
ridges have their strongest influence, suppressing diurnal
convection. As the upper ridge axis moves east, however, instability
trends upward, such that the best chance for diurnal activity will be
Wednesday. The severe threat will be relatively small, with shear
that may be a little strong to support true pulse storms, and progged
sfc-midlevel theta-E lapse rates only marginally supportive of severe
downbursts. Max temps will remain above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR with VCSH to prevail through late
tonight, with periods of flight restrictions anticipated late
overnight into Friday with increasing low clouds and periods of
showers and thunderstorms (TSRA mainly Friday afternoon), ahead and
along an approaching cold front from the west. South-southwesterly
winds AOB 10 kts will continue through tonight, with intermittent
gusts possible this afternoon, diminishing tonight, before
increasing overnight tonight, becoming gusty on Friday, with the
cold front entering the western portions of the FA Friday morning.
Outlook: VFR returns for the weekend into Tuesday as high pressure
builds in behind the cold front.
Confidence Table...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 87%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 86% High 87%
KAVL High 100% High 100% Med 78% Med 79%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 87% High 89%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 90% High 88%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 89% High 89%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ010-017.
NC...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ033-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ001>003.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...SGLHazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 5:27 AM EDT, 9 hours 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 527 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-260930- Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- 527 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds Friday afternoon through Friday night may approach advisory levels, especially for elevations above 3500 feet. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-260930- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains- Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens- Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville- Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 527 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening focused across eastern portions of the Upstate of South Carolina into the I-77 corridor of North Carolina. While damaging winds possibly due to microbursts are the main threat, stronger thunderstorms may also be capable of producing small hail and brief heavy downpours. Breezy conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening with gusts between 25 and 35 mph likely. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2019Wind Advisories in South Carolina, 2019Wind Advisories in Georgia, 2019Every wind advisory in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.