Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2019

Wind Advisory 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

January 4, 201918 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Jan 4, 2019, 2:47 PM EST for 18 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Jan 5, 2019, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 15 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 4, 2019, 2:47 PM EST (19:47 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 5, 2019, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 5, 2019, 2:43 PM EST
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 237 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2019-01-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2019-01-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 156 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
501 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

435 
WWUS72 KGSP 041947
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.A low pressure system lifting northeast across the southern and
central Appalachians will bring a trailing cold front through the
mountains tonight. Northwest winds will come up sharply behind the
front and produce very gusty conditions during the early morning
hours and then through the day on Saturday.

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501-503-505-050400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.190105T0500Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
247 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 PM
EST Saturday.

* LOCATIONS...The northern and central mountains of western North
  Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions. 

* TIMING...Developing after midnight, strengthening through
  daybreak and then persisting into the afternoon hours on
  Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at
  times.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-050400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.190105T0500Z-190105T2300Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
247 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory above 3500 feet, which is in effect from midnight
tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday.

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern mountains
  of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Developing after midnight, strengthening through
  daybreak and then persisting into the afternoon hours on
  Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at 
  times.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. A
  few trees could be blown down as well given the moist soil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

HG
5 follow-up statements
011 
WWUS72 KGSP 050307
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1007 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...

.A low pressure system lifting northeast across the southern and
central Appalachians will bring a trailing cold front through the
mountains tonight. Northwest winds will come up sharply behind
the front and produce very gusty conditions during the early
morning hours and then through the day on Saturday.

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501-503-505-051000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.190105T0500Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
1007 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The northern and central mountains of western North
  Carolina, including much of the French Broad Valley. 

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Developing after midnight, strengthening through 
  daybreak and then persisting into the afternoon hours on 
  Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra 
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-051000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.190105T0500Z-190105T2300Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
1007 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY ABOVE
3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern 
  mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Developing after midnight, strengthening through 
  daybreak and then persisting into the afternoon hours on 
  Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving 
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra 
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Lane
694 
WWUS72 KGSP 050932
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

.Northwest winds will strengthen this morning in the wake of low 
pressure lifting northeast across the central Appalachians early
this morning. Very gusty conditions are expected to develop this
morning and continue into the afternoon.

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501-503-505-051745-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, 
and Old Fort
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The northern and central mountains of western 
  North Carolina, including much of the French Broad Valley.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Strengthening through daybreak and then persisting 
  into the afternoon hours on Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-051745-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
432 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern 
  mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Strengthening through daybreak and then persisting 
  into the afternoon hours on Saturday.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

PM
722 
WWUS72 KGSP 051328
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
828 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...

.Northwest winds are strengthening this morning in the wake of 
low pressure lifting northeast across the central Appalachians.
Very gusty conditions will continue into the afternoon before
slowly diminishing toward evening.

NCZ035-502-504-506>510-052300-
/O.EXA.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Alexander-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Kings Creek, Lenoir, 
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, 
Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
828 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 6 PM EST this evening.

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina foothills.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Strengthening this morning, persisting into the early
  afternoon, and then diminishing toward evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at
  times.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, a few trees, and 
  power lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501-503-505-052300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Patterson, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, 
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
828 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The northern and central mountains of western 
  North Carolina, including much of the French Broad Valley.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Strengthening this morning and then persisting into the
  afternoon hours.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph at times.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-052300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-
Including the cities of Waynesville, Tuckasegee, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, and Highlands
828 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...Elevations above 3500 feet in the southern 
  mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Strengthening this morning and then persisting into the
  afternoon hours before diminishing toward evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

HG
404 
WWUS72 KGSP 051804
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
104 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...

.Gusty northwest winds behind a departing low pressure system will
linger until around sundown across the northern North Carolina
mountains before gradually diminishing. Winds have abated a bit
more quickly across the southern and central mountains, as well as
the foothills, of western North Carolina.

NCZ035-048-051>053-058-059-062>065-502-504-506>510-051915-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Alexander-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
104 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has
cancelled the Wind Advisory across the southern and central
mountains, as well as the foothills, of western North Carolina.

Northwest winds may continue to gust above 20 mph at times, but
advisory level winds are no longer expected. 

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-052300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
104 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The northern mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Very windy conditions.

* TIMING...Very windy conditions will continue this afternoon
  before slowly diminishing tonight.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph at
  times, especially along higher elevations near the northern Blue
  Ridge mountains.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 35 mph, or gusts of
46 to 57 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra
caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

HG
284 
WWUS72 KGSP 051943
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-052045-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190105T2300Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
243 PM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has
cancelLed the Wind Advisory for the northern mountains of western
North Carolina. Northwest winds may continue to gust to between 
25 and 35 mph this evening, especially along the higher ridges, 
but no further Wind Advisory conditions are expected. 

$$

HG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Jan 4, 2:35 PM EST, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 4, 2:35 PM EST, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rainfall will continue to exit the area as a low pressure
system pulls away from the southeast. Dry high pressure will spread
back over the region this weekend and linger into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EST: Regional radars show the advancing rain shield
moving east across the I-77 corridor this afternoon. Cellular
elements are redeveloping across northern GA and eastern TN and
scattered coverage of slightly better rates will be possible over
our area through early evening as the upper low approaches the
southern Appalachians. Will pare Anderson County out of the Flood
Watch, but keep locations from Pickens north and east in the Watch
as streams continue to rise in these areas and we're seeing
intermittent rain showers as well. Expect an early cancellation in
these areas as well at some point this evening.

Otherwise, a mid-level dry slot wrapping into the region from the
southwest will steadily diminish PoPs through the early evening
hours. However, there remains a small chance of a few convective
elements over the southern piedmont and southwest mountains late
this afternoon as the frontal system approaches and with strong 850
mb flow remaining backed well east of the closed low advancing
across AL/TN. Will keep an isolated thunder mention in for these
areas, but the chance of anything strong looks remote. The lingering
surface wedge should scour and retreat northward tonight.

The H5 closed low will reach the Smokies this evening and then
translate across western NC overnight. the lifting low moving east
of the area will herald the onset of very strong cold advection
winds overnight into Saturday morning, as well as falling snow
levels across the NC mountains. The current thinking is that any 1
to 2 inch snow accumulations will be confined to the higher ridges,
generally above 4500 feet. Regarding winds, although the NAM
features some 50 to 60 kt of 850 mb flow late tonight, the
GFS/RAP/GEFS mean are all somewhat less, and mixing will likely not
tap into the more damaging winds aloft. An advisory seems prudent
for most of the NC mountains and one will be posted overnight
through Saturday for all of the central and northern NC mountains,
and for elevations above 3500 feet in the southern NC mountains.

Mountain wave cirrus may set up tonight and linger well into
Saturday. This could have modest impacts on maximum temperatures,
especially across western NC. The pressure gradient will relax very
slowly through Saturday afternoon, but with gusty conditions
throughout as mixing develops Saturday morning, especially across
western NC. Will keep the NC mountain advisory going all day given
the mixing, but it can probably be cancelled by mid to late
afternoon as the gradient starts to weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Friday: By Saturday evening, region will see continued
drying in northwesterly flow behind system that brought significant
rainfall on Friday. Sunday and Monday will see the development of an
upper ridge over the central CONUS on Sunday that propagates to the
East Coast by Monday evening.  Passing of this ridge will give quite
fair and warm conditions Sunday and Monday with high temps as much
as 20 degrees above normal on Sunday.  Bias correction on guidance
is running around minus 6 degrees, which I reduced to 3 degrees for
the official forecast as the upcoming weather pattern is somewhat
different than the recent history that bias correction is based on.
By Monday evening, next upstream system begins to affect the
Southern Appalachians with some Gulf moisture being drawn into the
area ahead of a broad region of low pressure. This leads to some
light showers as early as Monday evening in the mountains.  Also on
Monday, surface high associated with migrating upper system, reaches
areas east of the CWA, with some northeasterly CAD flow developing
along the foothills, which could give some cloudiness and reduce
Monday highs to 5 to 10 degrees below those of Sunday (though still
well above normal).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2pm EST Friday:  Round of what looks like fairly light
rain primarily over the mountains and foothills on Tuesday/Wednesday
provides the only precipitation for the Tuesday through Friday
period.  As a couple upper waves pass by well north of the area
Tuesday and Wednesday, a cold front with some Gulf moisture ahead of
it crosses the CWA by Tuesday evening.  Dewpoints increase about 5
degrees on Tuesday with this moisture, but, despite forcing from
cold front, moisture is limited enough that rain will be mostly over
the favorable upslope portions of the mountains and possible some
into the foothills; with precipitation generally less than a tenth
of an inch.  Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough that
snow will only be possible at the higher elevations. With passage of
front on Tuesday, area will dry considerably with some cold
northwesterly advection behind the front. Dewpoints plummet back
into the 20s by Wednesday with temperatures dropping through the end
of the week. This will be the driest air the area has seen in recent
weeks, and may usher in a more seasonal regime.  The EC model
generally agrees in broad trends with the GFS guidance through
Thursday, with both models showing a trough to the East and ridging
over the central CONUS Thursday morning.  EC differs in having the
eastern ridge quite a bit stronger, with more cold advection and
drying Wednesday through Friday than seen in the GFS model.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The onset of southerly winds will soon mean
slow, gradual improvement in foothill and piedmont ceilings, but
this will likely take until the frontal system scours the low level
moisture from southwest to northeast this evening. Until then,
expect mainly IFR, with occasional LIFR, along with slowly
diminishing shower coverage. ENE winds in the wedge layer will give
way to gusty S to SW winds as the wedge front retreats and then more
westerly flow with time. KAVL will see a sharp switch to NW flow
this evening, with robust gusts of 20 to 30 kt developing and
possibly even some 30 to 35 kt early Saturday during the peak of the
cold advection behind the departing low. All locations east of the
mountains will see WSW to WNW flow with gusts at times as mixing
improves Saturday morning. Expect VFR conditions overnight through
Saturday, but with lingering or redeveloping MVFR at KAVL overnight
with NW flow moisture in place.

Outlook: Drying westerly and northwesterly flow will develop and
persist late Saturday, with VFR conditions and dry weather lasting
through the weekend into early next week. A swiftly moving front may
cross the region Monday night, but with very small chances of any
associated restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       Med   74%     High  82%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   56%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Med   66%     High  95%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   76%     Med   77%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   62%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   72%     High  99%     Med   79%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Saturday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ064-065-507>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for SCZ002-003-005>007.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 4, 1:10 PM EST, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-051815-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains-
Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of the mountains of
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A low pressure system will move across the region this evening.
Following the low passage, gusty winds will be possible across the
mountains beginning tonight. With saturated soils, downed trees and
power lines will be possible. Elevations above 3500 feet could see a
dusting of snow tonight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The gusty northwest winds will continue into Saturday across the
North Carolina mountains. With saturated soils, downed trees and
power lines will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ064-065-507-509-051815-
Transylvania-Henderson-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Additionally, as the system exits, gusty northwest winds will be
possible across the North Carolina mountains beginning tonight. With
saturated soils, downed trees and power lines will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

The gusty northwest winds may continue into Saturday across the
North Carolina mountains. With saturated soils, downed trees and
power lines will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the National Weather Service.

NCZ508-510-SCZ002-003-005>007-010-051815-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern Upstate of South
Carolina and the southern foothills of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report any flooding to the National Weather
Service.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
SCZ001-004-008-009-051815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Oconee Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Cherokee-York-
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Runoff from ongoing or recent heavy rainfall will continue to allow
streams and rivers to rise across the area. With saturated soils and
already elevated water levels, any additional rainfall may lead to
minor flooding, especially along rivers and streams already running
at elevated stages.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-051815-
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
110 PM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Runoff from ongoing or recent heavy rainfall will continue to allow
streams and rivers to rise across the area. With saturated soils and
already elevated water levels, any additional rainfall may lead to
minor flooding, especially along rivers and streams already running
at elevated stages.

In addition, isolated thunderstorms could develop late this
afternoon and produce locally gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 4, 2:33 AM ESTRiver Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania3 days
Jan 4, 4:25 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPTransylvania31 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2019Every wind advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.