Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air briefly moves in Thursday before afternoon showers and
thunderstorms return for the end of the work week. Smaller chances
of showers and thunderstorms are expected for the weekend with
better chances early next week. Hot and humid conditions will
persist into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 5pm EDT Wednesday: A couple widely scattered thunderstorms
exist this evening in Western North Carolina, moving east-
southeastward off the mountains into the foothills.  Development of
a few sub-severe thunderstorms will continue until after dark, with
a possible shower at any location in the CWA.

Significant downdraft cape and steep lapse rates will likely support
at least a few stronger thunderstorms with damaging wind potential.
Cold pool development combined with upper level support may support
loosely organized storms which may increase their strength and
forward movement. Mostly clear skies tonight will likely support fog
again in some areas, especially prone mountain valleys. Light
northwest winds will largely limit fog formation east of the
mountains. Drier northwest flow atop the region will support mostly
sunny skies outside high clouds at times and some ridgetop cumulus.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 pm Wednesday: The axis of a long wave trough will persist
along the East Coast through the short term period, with relatively
inactive convective weather generally expected to persist Thu night
into early Fri. The only possible exception surrounds the potential
for remnant organized convection to drop into the forecast area
within W/NW flow, possibly as early as Fri morning, at which time
pops increase to 20% across far western NC.

Otherwise, the leading edge of E/W oriented frontal boundary will
drop into the area by Fri afternoon. Although instability is forecast
to be somewhat muted for mid-summer, the boundary should act as a
focus for isolated to scattered convection, with pops ranging from
around 50% near the TN border to a slight chance across the
Piedmont.  The surface wind shift axis is forecast to slip south of
the forecast area by Saturday, allowing slightly drier air to advect
into the region, which should limit buoyancy to weak-at-best levels
Sat afternoon, and slight chance pops will be limited to the mtns
and southern tier of zones. Temps are forecast to be very close to
normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 PM Wednesday: Starting Saturday evening with a 500mb trough
over the East Coast and ridge over the central CONUS creating a NW
flow over our region.  The surface front that crosses our region
Friday and Saturday will be just south of our area Sunday and into
the start of the week. Low POPs on Sunday into early Monday with
very minor waves of energy passing across the area.  On the 500mb
pattern a closed low drops from Hudson Bay toward Montreal with this
energy bringing the next weak cold front SE across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Although the medium range models start out this
weekend fairly similar, the timing of the shortwave energy into mid
week is certainly different among the various models. The GFS and
ECMWF have the first wave bringing convection late Monday to the
mountains .  After that going into mid week, big differences. The GFS
has our region rather wet in mid week. There should be good CAPE
values in late afternoons next week for strong convection outside of
the mountains. Generally 2000 to 2500 CAPE in the piedmont and even
around 3000 in GFS late Wednesday. Temperatures should be near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Below normal confidence in convection threat
for this afternoon. A mid level disturbance is expected to help
initiate isolated to widely scattered tsra from west to east between
thru 22Z with most activity exiting the region by around 01Z. Light
northwest winds behind the disturbance should limit any IFR or lower
cigs/vsbys to some mountain valleys and isolated foothill locations
with a 40 percent chance of occurring at KAVL and KHKY. VFR conds and
light nw winds expected Thursday.

Outlook: Convective activity is expected to return Friday with
another lull in activity for Saturday. Overnight and morning fog
will be possible each day, especially for prone mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Low   59%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Munroe/WJM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...Munroe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
457 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-082100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
457 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the mountains
today and spread east across the area into early evening. The main
risk with these storms will be strong gusts in storm outflows and
frequent lightning. Although a storm could develop anywhere over the
area, the highest chance will be along and east of the I-77 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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