Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A persistent upper level trough will support afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day into the early part of the week. Moisture
will remain high over the next few days, which will maintain the
threat of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 pm EDT: As the 500 mb trough continues to sharpen up over
the southern Appalachians, various embedded vorticity lobes are
driving scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
region. Will focus the highest PoPs mainly east of I-77 and also
over the southern/central mountains where radar coverage is best and
where moisture in profiles are deepest. A pocket of weak mid-level
drying showing up in some model profiles later this afternoon could
lead to a localized microburst threat along and east of I-77. The
strongest convection, with the heaviest rainfall rates and
associated better chances of localized flooding, will follow a
typical diurnal pattern through mid-evening. However, isolated to
scattered PoPs for showers will need to run well into the nighttime
hours given the passing upper vorticity. Expect another round of
mountain valley low stratus and fog, with some low stratus possible
east of the mountains as well.

It is possible that the better upper forcing with the trough axis
could be east of the area during peak heating on Monday, but the
trough appears broad enough to support some continued modest DPVA
around 18Z or later. At any rate, differential mountain heating
should permit numerous storms to fire along the ridges in the
southern/central mountains once again. And, improving westerly
steering flow will carry this into the piedmont through late
afternoon. Robust, well above climo PoPs will again be warranted for
Monday afternoon. Will keep a smaller than climo diurnal range on
temps given the expected clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday: By Tuesday, the atmosphere as whole is progged
to become a touch drier with the short range model consensus
depicting the displacement of PWAT values greater than 1.60 inches
into the central and eastern Carolinas.  Based on this, and with the
support of MOS pop, will leave inherited diurnal deep convective
chances as isolated.  Max temperatures will rise a few degrees above
persistence as sfc dwpts mix lower in the afternoon.  It will
moisten marginally within the persistent yet weak llvl sw flow on
Thursday. Within the cyclonically curved flow aloft, s/wv energy
rotating through based of upper trough may aid in forcing deep
convection.  Based on this, have raised diurnal tstm chances to
above climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday: The mean pattern does not change much during
the latter half of the workweek as the cwfa remains near the base of
low amplitude eastern CONUS trough.  As expected, any larger scale
forcing should be minimal and the airmass should be seasonably warm
and humid. At this point, there is little reason to deviate with the
inherited chance pop for diurnal tstms each day.  For next weekend,
the preferred ECMWF/WPC solution progs a southward pressing
baroclinic zone to sag into the cwfa on Saturday.  Based on this,
will increase inherited deep convective chances on Saturday.  This
solution would support an influx of dry air into the region on
Sunday behind said boundary, effectively capping any deeper convective
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and weak thunderstorms have generally
drifted just east of KCLT, but mainly TEMPO TSRA will continue to be
carried through the late afternoon hours given backbuilding and
redevelopment east of the upper trough. Showers could linger well
into the evening hours, and spotty activity could continue
overnight. Across the mountain and foothill TAF sites, TSRA is a bit
less certain and TEMPO for TSRA will be carried through around 22Z
primarily at KAVL and KHKY. The Upstate sites presently appear too
stable for TSRA, so just VCSH there. The Upstate sites will also see
occasional MVFR cigs where low level moisture from the morning
rainfall is best. Otherwise, anticipate VFR conditions outside of
any thunderstorms until the overnight hours. Expect IFR to LIFR
restrictions developing quickly in the mountain valleys after 06Z,
and stratus could fill in in foothill/piedmont locations as well
through daybreak. Will hint that way with mainly FEW to SCT010
around daybreak for now until a better consensus from LAMP MOS and
vertical RH profiles is evident. Winds will remain light and
variable throughout the region. Expect directions to settle toward
light southwest with mixing on Monday.

Outlook: Modest drying is possible on Tuesday, then near normal
convective chances return Wednesday through Friday. Morning low
clouds and mountain valley fog are quite likely each day around
daybreak.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  85%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  95%     Low   45%     Med   72%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
622 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
622 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A humid airmass will support numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the area today. These storms will likely produce periods
of heavy rainfall, with localized flooding possible throughout
the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again on Monday.
Localized flooding will be the main threat from these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

NCZ071-041945-
Mecklenburg NC-
247 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 5 miles north of Indian Land, or near The
Arboretum. This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
South Charlotte, Matthews, Pineville, The Arboretum, Southpark Mall,
Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte, Marvin and Mint Hill.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8081 3500 8084 3509 8091 3516 8089
      3520 8070 3511 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 358DEG 4KT 3508 8082

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

NCZ072-042000-
Cabarrus NC-
255 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
IMPACT CABARRUS COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning and torrential rainfall near Downtown Concord. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, West Concord, Harrisburg, Mt Pleasant,
Coddle Creek Reservoir and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8046 3528 8066 3534 8069 3535 8070
      3545 8076 3550 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 358DEG 4KT 3537 8060

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
315 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

NCZ053-065-041945-
Buncombe NC-Henderson NC-
315 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT HENDERSON
AND SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles northwest of Hendersonville, or near Mills
River. This storm was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hendersonville, Arden, Mills River, Fletcher, Flat Rock, Etowah,
Mountain Home, Laurel Park, Asheville Airport and Valley Hill.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8229 3517 8244 3528 8261 3529 8261
      3529 8262 3530 8262 3534 8266 3548 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 291DEG 3KT 3537 8255

WJM

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