Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move toward the Carolina coast
tonight.  Dry high pressure will develop across the region for the
early and middle part of next week after a second cold frontal
passage on Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to be near of
just above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for portions of the FA across North Carolina, through
tonight.

With temperatures this afternoon noticeably not as hot as we've seen
over the past several days (though still in the mid to upper
80s/near 90s degrees, cooler across the mountains), showers and
thunderstorms continue to gradually develop across portions of the
FA attm, mainly across the foothills and piedmont of western NC - as
some have already become strong to severe within the past hour. As a
vigorous upper shortwave gradually swings through overhead through
the rest of today and into tonight, and a weak cold front at the sfc
pushes through the area, these features will supply plenty of
available lift. This with daytime heating, instability nearing 1000-
2000 J/kg across the area (and notably a healthy supply of DCAPE
nearing 800-1000 J/kg, extending from east of the escarpment to the
I-77 corridor, per latest mesoanalysis), along with bulk shear of 40
to 45 kts - expect convection to linger through tonight, decreasing
in coverage from west to east as the cold front pushes through into
later this evening. The primary threat with any strong to severe
thunderstorms will be damaging winds and hail.

Overnight, conditions will become fairly quiet as cloud cover slowly
decreases. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s across the
Upstate and NW Piedmont, into the 50s across the mountains. Though
confidence is low, would not entirely rule out a rogue, light shower
meandering about the FA.

On Saturday, with upper ridge building in the west and lingering
upper troughing (becoming broad in nature) over the Southeast,
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible (mainly across
the NC counties) late Saturday morning through the afternoon hours,
as low level moisture lingers in the wake of the slowly exiting
upper s/w. SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook has the entire area in
general thunder. Otherwise, weak sfc high pressure will begin to
infiltrate into the area. High temperatures will climb into the low
to mid 80s, into the 70s across the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Friday: The change in our weather pattern will
finally be complete as the next week begins. The NW flow should
have one more cold front in store for us on Sunday before a large
dry continental high pressure air mass settles over our area for
the first half of next week. The short wave driving that feature
down across the area will pass by to our north early Sunday,
leaving very little in the way of mid/upper forcing to accompany
the front, while moisture remains relatively sparse. The mtns
will stand a chance at showers/storms, but in this pattern it
looks like convection will be widely scattered at best in most
places east of the Blue Ridge. Any precip should exit the region
by around sunset on Sunday. With the passage of that boundary,
our temperatures will finally drop all the way back to normal. One
of the few nice things about a heat wave is that when it finally
breaks, the weather seems even that more awesome, and Monday will
be that day. Sky should be bright and sunny with temps maybe even
a degree or two below normal, with low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Friday: At the start of the medium range...Monday
evening...models show a prominent 500mb trough over the East Coast
which will move NE into Tuesday.  The dry and cooler than recently
weather will continue Tuesday, then the cool surface high moves off
the East Coast into Wednesday. This will result in a moist southerly
flow which will continue through the second half of the week.  The
models show a varying shortwave to occasionally closed low on the
500mb pattern moving NE from west Texas toward the Great Lakes by
the weekend. The GFS has the highest convective coverage Friday into
Saturday while the ECMWF has high coverage late Wednesday and even
greater next Saturday. So they agree on the end of the week with the
closest approach of the closed low and the corresponding best
moisture feed out of the Gulf.  CAPE values ramp upward in the
second half of the week with the EC having higher instability with
CAPEs approaching 2000 at times. Temperatures just below normal on
Tuesday then about one category above normal late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR to prevail through the valid TAF
period, with the exception of brief flight restrictions possible
this afternoon as scattered showers and thunderstorms move across
the area, associated with a sfc cold front pushing through the area.
Per latest guidance, afternoon convection will be possible as well
on Saturday, with CAMs suggesting any convective activity will stay
confined to NC. Thus, have introduced VCSH/VCTS for KCLT, KHKY with
this fcst. Otherwise, expect an overall trend of gradually
decreasing clouds into tonight behind the cold front, with FEW/SCT
mid to high level clouds on Saturday.

Through this afternoon, southwest winds will prevail, AOB 12 kts
with gusts nearing 25 mph, potentially higher with any strong
thunderstorm. With gusts diminishing this evening, expect winds to
veer to the W-WNW into tonight behind the passing cold front. WNW
winds AOB 5 kts are expected on Saturday.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible,
mainly across the mountains, through the weekend. Otherwise, expect
VFR.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
223 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-501>504-011830-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-
223 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-
505>510-SCZ001>014-019-011830-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
223 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening. Lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain
will be possible. Some storms may become strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW VALE              35.56N 81.50W
05/31/2019                   LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN AND PEA SIZE HAIL ON HWY 10.

&&

KRENTZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
436 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW STATESVILLE        35.74N 80.94W
05/31/2019                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE POWERLINE KNOCKED DOWN AT 907 OLD MOUNTAIN ROAD. PEA
            SIZE HAIL REPORTED AS WELL.

&&

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
437 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ056-068-069-504-508-312100-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-
Catawba NC-
437 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...WESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND
AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 436 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Forest City, or 4 miles southwest of Casar, moving
east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Belwood, Lawndale, Fallston, Polkville, Casar, South Mountains State
Park, Cooksville, Vale and Propst Crossroads.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
western and the Piedmont of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3542 8132 3542 8145 3540 8144 3536 8175
      3555 8180 3568 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 255DEG 21KT 3549 8169

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
438 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

NCZ036-056-069-071-312115-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
438 PM EDT Fri May 31 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...EASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 438 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Lincolnton, or over Denver, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Huntersville, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson, Westport, Lake
Norman, Denver, Ramsey Creek Park, Lowesville and Sherrills Ford.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3551 8078 3550 8079 3542 8076 3542 8112
      3560 8114 3567 8077 3552 8074 3551 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 264DEG 27KT 3553 8104

HG