Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail through Wednesday as a weak
cold front drops south across our area.  Expect scattered to
numerous showers and storms until the front moves south of our area
on Thursday. Rainfall chances will decrease at the start of the
weekend but increase again to start next week as another front and
low pressure approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:35 PM EDT Tuesday: convection has begun to fire up across
much of the fcst area over the past hour or so, in addition to a
robust line of convection that is currently crossing the Tenn/NC
Border and moving into our CWA. The latest CAM runs continue to
generate at least two rounds of convection over the CWFA thru late
tonight. It's still looking like the first round that comes thru
over the next 3 to 6 hrs will be the strongest. The heat is also
an ongoing concern, with heat indices already hitting 105 degrees
at several sites. As convection spreads, hopefully temps have peaked
and will begin to come down. SPC has included most of our CWA in
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm, with damaging straight-line
winds still expected to be the main threat. There is a light curve
to the hodograph (S to SSW surface winds and NW winds aloft), so we
have a non-zero tornado chance. Large hail threat remains minimal.
Main convective threat should dwindle after 00z or so, with lingering
weaker convection and showers possible after that. As such, have
kept low-end pops thru the overnight hours with the front hanging
around and plenty of lingering moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 pm Tuesday: Lower theta-e air filtering into the area in
the wake of weak frontal zone will provide a respite from active
convective weather and overly oppressive heat indices during the
short term. Pops for afternoon/evening convection are still
warranted, mainly across the mtns and southern and eastern areas,
but 20% chances are about the best that we can do. While max temps
will still be hot, generally lower 90s across much of the Piedmont
and foothills, dewpoints mixing out into the 60s each afternoon
should allow for heat index values to be primarily limited to the 90
to 95 range, with some spotty 95-100 values possible across southern
Piedmont areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Tuesday: Starting Friday evening with the 500mb
pattern showing a broad trough across North America with nearly
zonal west to east flow from northern California to the Virgina's.
As the surface front will be stalled out from Florida to along the
Carolina coast and weak high pressure controlling our weather, POPs
continue to be low on Saturday. It is still questionable concerning
any tropical low forming along the front and whether that influences
our weather going into next week.  The ECMWF forms a low near the
Big Bend area on Saturday then moves it over the Carolinas on
Monday. The GFS is vague but brings up tropical moisture from the
Gulf in the first half of next week. A strong shortwave crosses
Tennessee late in the weekend and becomes our weather maker for the
first half of next week. The EC closes off a low over Indiana late
Monday and it remains there through mid week. The GFS briefly closes
off a 500mb low on Tuesday over Alabama.  Seems a bit wet for the
first half of next week.  Temperatures will be slightly above normal
this weekend, then cool to a couple of degrees below normal toward
mid week under thick clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect an active next 24 hrs across the fcst
area with multiple rounds of convection expected. A well-defined line
of robust thunderstorms is about to move across the Tenn/NC Border
and will likely begin impacting KAVL within the next hour or two.
I have TEMPOs for TSRA at all sites for this main line of convection
from roughly 18 to 24z today and another round of TEMPOs from roughly
00 to 04z for a secondary round of convection, although it might wind
up being mostly showers. Towards the end of the period tomorrow
afternoon, I included PROB30s for TSRA at KCLT and KAVL, with the
other sites likely needing them with the next taf issuance. Winds
will generally be SWLY thru the period except at KAVL where winds
will shift NWLY this afternoon, and remain predominately NWLY thru
the taf period. In addition, KAVL has the best chance of seeing
restrictions tomorrow morning. Thus, I included a few hours of IFR
cigs and MVFR visby beginning around 10z.

Outlook: showers and thunderstorms will continue thru Wednesday as
a cold front and associated moisture/forcing arrive from the northwest.
The boundary will stall southeast of the area mid to late week, with
lower end convective chances persisting. Early fog/stratus will be
possible each day across mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   70%     High  85%     High  87%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ010-011-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
405 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-140815-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
405 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight.
Cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and damaging winds will
be the primary threats. An isolated tornado could not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001>009-012>014-140815-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Union-Chester-
405 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and Upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and
tonight. Cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and damaging
winds will be the primary threats.

Hot and humid conditions will allow for heat index values to be in
the 100 to 105 degree range across the Upstate and portions of
northeast Georgia today. Use caution when participating in outdoor
activities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue, allowing for heat index
values to near 103 degrees across the Upstate and portions of
northeast Georgia on Wednesday. Use caution when participating in
outdoor activities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ010-011-019-140815-
Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
405 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and Upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue, allowing for heat index
values to near 103 degrees across the Upstate and portions of
northeast Georgia on Wednesday. Use caution when participating in
outdoor activities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-140815-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
405 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight.
Cloud-to-ground lightning, brief heavy rain, and damaging winds will
be the primary threats. An isolated tornado could not be ruled out.

Hot and humid conditions will allow for heat index values to be in
the 100 to 104 degree range today. Use caution when participating in
outdoor activities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will continue, allowing for heat index
values to near 103 degrees in some locations across the Northwest
Piedmont on Wednesday. Use caution when participating in outdoor
activities.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

NCZ065-509-510-131930-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
259 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Hendersonville, or near Saluda, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Flat Rock, Tryon, Saluda, Dana, Tuxedo, East Flat Rock,
Mill Spring and Lake Adger.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3524 8208 3519 8216 3520 8229 3519 8232
      3519 8235 3518 8237 3519 8238 3520 8238
      3521 8239 3519 8243 3526 8249 3538 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 317DEG 17KT 3527 8235

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

GAZ026-028-SCZ004-131930-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Greater Oconee SC-
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN HART AND SOUTH
CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Seneca, or near Tugaloo State Park, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gumlog, Tugaloo State Park and Fair Play.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

Lake Hartwell is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground
lightning and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
Oconee County South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3452 8312 3454 8310 3456 8313 3456 8314
      3457 8314 3458 8316 3461 8308 3454 8292
      3448 8299 3448 8296 3441 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 303DEG 13KT 3454 8306

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

SCZ012-131930-
Laurens SC-
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Laurens, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3456 8211 3458 8203 3447 8192 3442 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 333DEG 6KT 3452 8205

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
306 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

SCZ012-131930-
Laurens SC-
306 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Union, or 6 miles west of Whitmire, moving east at
20 mph.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Laurens County.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8183 3457 8180 3456 8175 3457 8175
      3455 8172 3456 8170 3455 8169 3456 8168
      3455 8166 3452 8165 3446 8170 3444 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 285DEG 18KT 3452 8173

LANE