Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface boundary will remain stalled across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgiathrough the weekend. Meanwhile,
tropical cyclone Barry will weaken after landfall and move northward
through the Mississippi River Valley. High amounts of moisture
associated with Barry will spread east across the Ohio Valley and
into the Appalachians by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 pm: Convective activity is becoming increasingly clustered
in the southeast quadrant of the CWFA thanks to weak steering winds
and modestly large DCAPE values allowing for good outflows. A couple
cells have grown tall enough to expect severe winds and possibly
marginally severe hail, but we have gotten little ground truth so
far. Impressive localized rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are
likely under some of these clusters. WPC has issued a Mesoscale
Precip Discussion to discuss this threat. Updated PoP/Sky into
late evening to account for the diurnal decline; the cirrus debris
that has spread over the area may limit additional expansion of
precip save for where the outflows are able to tap into previously
developed instability.

Synoptic pattern changes little over the next 24 hours, with a
slight increase in heights, and a little northwesterly surface
flow developing behind surface trough that analysis indicates is
now southeast of the region.  This will help the boundary layer to
dry a little for Sunday, with dewpoints declining a degree or two,
and precipitable water off several tenths of an inch.  Reduction in
moisture for Sunday results in high-res models producing reduced
amounts of thunder Sunday afternoon.

Influence of Hurricane/TS Barry is limited this far away, but
combination of southerly flow due to distant Barry well to the
West, and the trough to the East now past the area, is giving some
enhancement to thunderstorms this afternoon, with storms having
greater intensity roughly along the dewpoint gradient across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday: The overall pattern across the Carolinas and
NE GA will change little over the short term. A weak subTrop ridge
will dominate and maintain general subsidence...while the sfc
pattern remains rather difuse. A shift in a llvl trof to the east is
expected and this shud return afternoon convective coverage to more
normal development...which favors the higher terrain in a diurnal
cycle. Deep layered shear and the steering flow remain weak...so
expect slow movng tstms each afternoon with multicell clusters
possible insitgated by storm ouflows. Instability will be on the low
end as well...yett few storms could become quite strong to severe in
areas of differntial heating. With PAWT values remaining arnd 1.75
inches...the deeper cells will be capable of producing high rainfall
rates and perhaps create localized hydro issues. The latest GFS keeps
noctunal tstms ongoing Mon night in elevated convection...however
this scenario was tempered in the grids due to little to no support
from the other op models. Max and min temps will remain right arnd
normal for mid July...while dewpoints in the L70s maintain muggy
conds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM Saturday: Confidence is good with the handling of the
remnants of TC Barry to begin the ext period. All the op models
have the system attenuating over the wrn OH Valley as it interacts
with nrn stream westerlies...then little model differences noted as
the remnants reach the NC mtns early Thu. The EC model does have a
more pronounced crossing while the GFS lingers the trop enhanced air
over the CWFA into Fri. Either way...Thursday looks to see an uptick
in convective coverage and column saturation. The going PoPs have
this idea covered well and little adjs were made to those grids.

Overall...will anticipate a hot and humid period with deep afternoon
pulse convec...however a hydro threat will increase Thu into Fri
as the airmass is likely mixed with higher trop moisture. The GFS is
bringing in a crossing cold front Sat...but so far it/s the only
model depicting this...so no sigfnt changes were made to the day 8
grids which for now has a persistence type fcst from Fri. Max temps
will remain in the low to mid 90s and with high dewpoints...apparent
temps shud approach adv level criteria across the srn most zones by
Fri. Mins will also remain a cat or so abv normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Round of thunderstorms under way leading to
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA for all TAF sites.  High-res models have storms
continuing until around 00z.  Tropical conditions continue through
Sunday, with afternoon showers and light winds.  Weather pattern
changes little, but boundary layer moisture decreases slightly on
Sunday due to a little dry advection behind trough southeast of the
area.  This should result in less morning fog, and reduced intensity
and coverage for showers Sunday afternoon.  Fog is still forecast
for isolated mountain valleys that are prone to it, with KAVL the
only TAF site likely to see fog.

Outlook: More typical, scattered convective coverage expected into
the middle of next week. Patchy fog and low cigs remain possible
during the morning hours.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   52%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...Wimberley/WJM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
349 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-142000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
349 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area into the
evening hours. Localized urban and small stream flooding will be
possible along with numerous cloud-to-ground lighting strikes. Some
thunderstorms may have gusty winds, and damaging wind gusts may occur
with one or two of the strongest storms. The greatest coverage of
the thunderstorms will be across the Upstate of South Carolina,
northeast Georgia, and the southern and central mountains of western
North Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
503 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

NCZ070-071-082-SCZ009-132130-
Gaston NC-Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
503 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTHEASTERN GASTON...SOUTHWESTERN UNION
AND YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northeast of York, or near Lake Wylie,
moving southeast at 25 mph. Other strong storms were located near
Waxhaw and also near McConnells.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Gastonia, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte,
Southwest Charlotte, Weddington, Fort Mill, Pineville and South
Gastonia.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch
hail and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8074 3485 8079 3494 8078 3508 8091
      3503 8090 3501 8091 3499 8089 3492 8086
      3490 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090
      3482 8135 3495 8127 3516 8134 3525 8124
      3521 8078 3508 8071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 294DEG 20KT 3509 8112

MOORE

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