Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system west of the region will continue to pump
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the southern Appalachians and
surrounding areas today through Monday. A cold front will arrive
from the northwest on Monday night, but likely stall over the region
on Tuesday, with abundant moisture returning through Wednesday.
Another cold front will finally push through the region late in the
week to bring in drier air from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 am EDT: Shower intensity has weakened a bit this morning,
but coverage is starting to fill back in from the south. Meanwhile,
the setup persists for additional rounds of heavy rainfall to affect
the area through the day. A slowly filling trough axis will persist
west of the Appalachians through late day, before steadily lifting
back into the northern stream wave digging across the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region tonight. The strength of the low level
southeasterly flow that has been providing persistent upslope has
weakened a bit, but the southeast upslope direction will continue,
especially with the weak surface front draped along the northern
periphery of the forecast area. Vertical profiles across the region
still feature precipitable water values around 2 inches in many
locations, with continued warm cloud layers deeper than 12 kft.
Meanwhile, the convection-allowing models agree fairly well that the
shower coverage will be best across western NC this morning, but
with some redevelopment affecting the southern tier as well.
Finally, there is good consensus on sbCAPE surging back up to 1500
to 2000 J/kg across at least the southeast half of the forecast area
this afternoon, where better rates could renew the flash flooding
potential. The existing Flash Flood Watch will certainly be
maintained.

The low-level flow will veer around toward southerly tonight, which
should help relax the upslope component a bit, but profiles will
remain very moist. Although flash flooding will remain a concern,
extensions to the Watch will likely be postponed until later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday: Expect ongoing isolated to scattered
showers, and even possibly a thunderstorm or two, to kick off the
short term forecast period Monday morning, as the unsettled weather
pattern continues. Per latest guidance, as the upper trough overhead
gradually shifts eastward through the morning hours, and low level
flow veers to the southwest, a cold front is expected to move into
the area from the northwest on Monday (roughly peak heating
timeframe), as it's parent northern stream upper trough swings
through the Upper Midwest. With this feature progged to push through
the afternoon/evening hours, am anticipating convection coverage to
ramp up Monday afternoon, with guidance suggesting instability will
increase to near 1000-1200 J/kg across the area. For the return of
convection and SW flow, do not want to completely disregard the
continued potential flooding threat across the area on Monday,
despite the downward trend of the heavy rainfall threat as a whole.
Given the well saturated soils in place along with the flooding
events from the past few days, it won't take much from a heavy
downpour or a stronger thunderstorm for conditions to become
favorable for localized flooding. After collaboration with
neighboring offices, have kept the current Flash Flood Watch as is,
but may need to be extended further into Monday, as confidence
increases with future model runs. The latest WPC Excessive Rainfall
fcst for Monday keeps most of the area in the slight category.

Late overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, latest guidance
depicts a gradual drying trend behind the recently passed cold front
as dewpoints decrease, with broad upper troughing setting up, and
weak high pressure at the sfc. However, conditions look to remain
unsettled with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Tuesday and Tuesday evening as that tap of low level Gulf
moisture continues to infiltrate into the area, with a wave of
energy riding along the front near the Carolina coast.

High temperatures on Monday will fall just short of normal,
into the low 80s across the Upstate and NW Piedmont, with
temperatures cooler into the upper 70s/near 80 degrees on
Tuesday behind the cold front. All slightly cooler temperatures
expected across the mountains. Low temperatures will fall just
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Sunday: The aforementioned weak sfc high pressure
off to the northeast is progged to wedge back in across the
Carolinas on Wednesday, while sfc low pressure swings into the Great
Lakes Region, with it's associated upper trough propagating eastward
into the Upper Midwest throughout the day. As weak CAD retreats into
Wednesday night, while still in SW flow at the low levels, model
discrepancy increases into Thursday, with regards to precipitation
across the area, both temporally and spatially - with possibly two
features of interest being sfc low pressure moving into the Carolina
coast from the GOM, with pieces of energy rounding the bottom of
upper troughing/possible weak cold front, as well. Either way,
despite lowered confidence, the potential for unsettled weather to
meander into Thursday is there as low pressure pushes further away
from the area. QPF values on Thursday anticipated to be near zero.
Expect a drying trend to return on Friday with gradually decreasing
cloud cover, as sfc high pressure builds in for the early part of
the weekend.

With anticipated weak wedge of high pressure in place on Wednesday,
expect high temperatures to be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees,
slightly cooler across the mountains. Thursday through into the
weekend, expect high temperatures to fall just short of normal. Low
temperatures will remain below normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Weakening instability early this morning
suggests that little in the way of thunder will occur through the
morning hours, so will focus mainly on continued shower activity and
associated MVFR tempo IFR cigs early, becoming solid IFR to LIFR
throughout the morning hours. Anticipate only modest recovery to
lower end MVFR cigs through the day as profiles remain very moist.
Surface winds will likely remain south of east, but toggle ENE at
times as shower activity ramps back up. Will target the next round
of thunder potential for this afternoon with most models suggesting
sbCAPE recovery to 1500-2000 J/kg circa 18Z to 00Z. Ceilings should
descend back into IFR tonight. Daybreak IFR fog will be possible in
southern tier locations where stratus briefly scatters.

Outlook: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some with very heavy
rainfall, and associated restrictions may continue into Monday. Some
improvement is possible Tuesday through Wednesday as a cold front
moves through the region.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Med   76%     Med   75%     Low   56%     Med   67%
KGSP       High  82%     High  84%     Med   61%     Med   60%
KAVL       Low   44%     High  84%     High  86%     High  88%
KHKY       Med   79%     High  90%     Med   73%     Med   75%
KGMU       Med   75%     High  87%     Med   62%     Low   56%
KAND       Med   62%     High  83%     Med   66%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Updated Flash Flood Guidance values for 6-hour periods are generally
running 1 to 2 inches in wet western NC locations, and around 3
inches elsewhere. These rates remain attainable given the rainfall
efficiency observed thus far and indicated in profiles going forward
given the deep (12+ kft) warm cloud layers. The WPC Moderate risk of
Excessive Rainfall looks well placed today.

Flooding in urban areas may continue to develop very quickly as
local drainage systems get overwhelmed by the rainfall rates, and
high stream and river levels now occurring in the NC foothills have
that area particularly primed for additional flooding.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-035>037-049-
     050-053-056-057-059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...HG
HYDROLOGY...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-059-
062>065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-092015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, some of the thunderstorms this evening will be strong
with very gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ048-051-052-058-092015-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
402 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Several rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms
will affect the region tonight. Local 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall
rates will be possible in the heaviest downpours, and localized
flooding could result.

In addition, some of the thunderstorms this evening will be strong
with very gusty winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The active, wet pattern will continue Sunday through mid-week.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
108 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 AM     FLOOD            2 SSE ICARD             35.70N 81.44W
06/09/2019                   BURKE              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING REPORTED ON WOODLAND HILLS DRIVE, WITH PORTIONS
            OF THE ROAD BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE. VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS
            CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

&&

LACORTE